The global press appears to have adopted a new form of geopolitical responsibility: declaring wars at the moment when politicians are merely starting to tie their ties. The situation involving Venezuela and the United States serves as a classic example of such a media spectacle. Headlines screamed about an imminent invasion and “oil war,” while in reality we are witnessing a carefully choreographed act of political pressure, mixed with deck aviation and tanker convoys. The war that was so eagerly announced on social media and in the press did not materialize. Instead of a full-scale operation, we have instead seen an "escort" thriller in the Caribbean Sea. This is hardly surprising: rattling sabers is undeniably easier today than sitting in trenches, and when it comes to markets, including oil, they have long learned to distinguish noise from real threats.
Geopolitical tensions peaked against the backdrop of reports about a possible “full and total blockade” of Venezuela, promised by Donald Trump. The U.S. President did not hold back in his expressions, stating that Washington intends to reclaim the rights to Venezuelan oil, which had been "illegally seized" by local authorities during nationalization.
Amidst these declarations, tangible “hawks” appeared in the sky over the Caribbean: U.S. deck aviation was demonstratively launched into the air. Flightradar24 recorded fighter jets F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, two Boeing EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, and an E-2D Advanced Hawkeye early warning aircraft in the airspace. This collection of equipment, which could be presented as "readiness to strike," is actually a standard demonstration of power as part of "diplomacy of pressure."
Caracas responded in a symmetrical and very practical manner, playing its own card: military escort.
Western media reported that tankers carrying oil by-products (carbamide, petroleum coke) from José Port set sail towards Asia under the protection of the Venezuelan Navy. State-owned company PDVSA hastily assured that its vessels are in complete safety and are exercising their lawful right to free navigation.
Apocalypse enthusiasts were left disappointed: Trump delivered an address to his fellow citizens, denounced the previous administration, praised himself, but did not declare war on Venezuela. Instead of an invasion — there came a pause; instead of an operation — rhetoric about “restoring justice” and the return of “stolen” assets, referencing the history of nationalization initiated under Hugo Chávez.
Importantly, support for a forceful scenario within the U.S. is minimal. A Quinnipiac University poll revealed that two-thirds of Americans (63%) oppose an invasion of Venezuela, which lowers the political risks for the White House. Politically, it is safe to rattle sabers, but going into the trenches is extremely disadvantageous. All this geopolitical drama would make sense if Venezuela had maintained its role as a major supplier. However, the figures tell a different story, and this is why the oil market did not succumb to panic.
"Serious disruptions in the oil market should not be expected, as in the past two decades Venezuela has reduced its oil production by more than three times — from 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2004 to 910,000 bpd in 2024," says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, to Vgudok. "For comparison, global oil and gas condensate production in 2024 will amount to 82.8 million barrels per day (excluding light hydrocarbons).
Venezuela has lost its position as the largest oil producer in South America, now occupied by Brazil, while Guyana and Argentina are actively increasing production… Therefore, sharp jumps in oil prices will not occur: in the coming weeks, Brent prices will fluctuate near $60 per barrel, and next year, quotations may drop to $55 per barrel."
Thus, Venezuela's share accounts for only about 1% of global supplies. This makes short-term impact on quotations minimal.
Independent expert Kirill Rodionov agrees, emphasizing that the impact on prices will be short-lived and weak:
"If there will be any impact on prices, it will last for 1-2 days, and fluctuations will not exceed $1-2 per barrel. For the market as a whole, this is not a very significant story."
However, if global prices remain stable, it does not mean that the tension is costless.
The geopolitical game translates into direct costs for logistics and insurance. The presence of deck aviation and the threat of a blockade compel shipowners to avoid risky routes, raise freight rates, and, most importantly, increase insurance premiums. The “oil war” hits not the prices on the exchange but the margins of Venezuelan exporters and the logistical costs of buyers.
The current crisis is not about collapse, but about perspective. Experts agree that the demonstration of power could serve as a prologue to the long-awaited and extensive economic transformation of Venezuela.
"I expect these events to serve as a prologue to Venezuela's full return to the oil market. Let me remind you that oil production in the country currently stands at less than 1 million barrels per day, while in the mid-2000s, production exceeded 3 million barrels," continues Kirill Rodionov. "Caracas is likely to gradually increase oil production, as there will likely be a demopolization of PDVSA, and several independent entities will be created based on this company, with American companies involved and investments... I am confident that in the next 10 years, Venezuela can become another significant source of oil production growth and return to the levels of the mid-2000s."
The reason for such a move lies in the catastrophic state of the industry. Experts draw a historical analogy; according to Mr. Rodionov, the collapse of the oil sector in Venezuela is even more severe than it was in the USSR in the late 80s. At that time, the Russian government in 1992 was forced to seek loans from the World Bank for the rehabilitation of the oil industry. This is roughly the state in which the Venezuelan oil sector currently finds itself.
"This can all be relatively easily 'treated,' including through tax relief, lifting sanctions, privatizing the industry, and removing export restrictions. You simply privatize the oil sector, demopolize it, and invite the best oil service companies, and oil production will be restored very quickly. And already in the country, changes, which have long been overdue, are happening," says Mr. Rodionov.
For Russian oil exports, the short-term threat is minimal — Venezuela's volumes are insignificant, and logistical issues can be compensated for in the weeks ahead.
However, if the recovery plan works and Venezuela returns to a production level of 3 million barrels per day within 5-10 years, this will intensify competition.
The emergence of an additional one or two million barrels of oil, similar to Russian grades, may complicate the position of domestic exporters in Asian markets. Russia will need to account for this new factor in its sales and pricing strategies.
Trump enjoys playing the role of peacemaker. The losses incurred by American companies date back nearly 20 years. The Venezuelan oil industry was first officially nationalized on January 1, 1976. All foreign oil companies conducting business in the country were replaced by Venezuelan ones.
A state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), was created, which still exists today. In 2007, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez carried out a second nationalization, affecting not only local businesses but also branches of Western oil companies — American Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, British BP, French Total, and Norwegian Statoil. Chávez's decision caused outrage in the U.S. and other Western countries, which responded with the first tough sanctions against Venezuela, leading to the production crisis.
Furthermore, it can be assumed that Maduro's army and navy possess a solid arsenal of Russian-made anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and it is unlikely the U.S. president would want to experiment, testing how well these South American "companiers" have learned to use them.
For now, this seems more like a geopolitical spectacle, carefully staged for a media series, than a real oil war. Tanker escorts and deck aviation are serious gestures, but without public support and readiness for direct invasion, they remain part of a bargaining strategy. Meanwhile, the market keeps counting barrels, not words, and is waiting for when the noise turns into real privatization. The war that journalists love to announce is likely the prologue to a new stage in the development of the oil industry.
Source: Vgudok
