According to various indicators, the industry is approaching stabilization. Rosstat has recorded a decline in retail prices for gasoline for five consecutive weeks. Furthermore, in October 2025, the production of petroleum products in the Russian Federation increased by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, on the stock exchange, prices have "retreated" from the multi-month highs of September-October.

In this context, the lifting of the export ban was anticipated. The extension of restrictions appears to be linked to a cautious approach to account for potential unforeseen repairs at oil refineries. Therefore, oil companies will have to "wait it out" for a couple more months. Additionally, it is important to remember that the moratorium on abolishing the damper will remain in effect until early May 2026.

In practice, this could lead to a new surge in stock prices, which will be reflected in retail. Oil producers will likely seek to compensate for external losses through the domestic market.

Source: Vedomosti