The increase in the crack spread—the difference between the cost of crude oil and the final price of petroleum products—appears quite realistic, especially with the decline in Urals prices. According to Argus, the average price of Urals in November 2025 was $44.9 per barrel, marking a five-year low. Consequently, the cheaper the raw material, the more profitable the production of petroleum products becomes. However, several caveats should be noted. Firstly, the volume of petroleum product exports from Russia is currently at multi-year lows. According to S&P Commodities Insight, maritime shipments of petroleum products from Russia, which exceeded 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) at the beginning of 2024, decreased to 2 million b/d by November 2025. Secondly, due to the embargo, Russia is unable to conduct maritime shipments of petroleum products to EU countries, which accounted for three-quarters of Russian diesel fuel exports prior to 2022. Meanwhile, shipments to the Asian market are partially constrained by infrastructure limitations on the Russian Railways (RZD) network: it is no coincidence that, according to RZD, loading of oil and petroleum products decreased by 5.2% in the first eleven months of 2025, totaling 179.6 million tons. Nonetheless, in December 2025, maritime exports of petroleum products may rise due to a partial stabilization of refinery operations. If in August 2025, petroleum product production in Russia decreased by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, and by 5% in September 2025, it saw an increase of 6.6% in October 2025. Therefore, both volumes and profitability of diesel exports to the global market may increase in December 2025. Source: Vedomosti