In December, gasoline prices at U.S. gas stations became lower than those in Russia for the first time, hitting a four-year low. The average price for the equivalent of our AI-92 grade gasoline is currently 60.1 rubles per liter at American gas stations, while in Russia, according to Rosstat data as of December 1st, this grade was priced at 61.68 rubles per liter.

Whether we should urgently consider reforming our fuel market in light of this is a significant question. It is important to note the word "have dropped" in the previous paragraph, which indicates that prices were previously higher, and could rise again significantly.

Moreover, in the case of American pricing, there is no talk of fuel cost regulation or references to cheaper gasoline in Venezuela or Mexico. The market operates solely based on economic principles, without any discussions regarding social responsibility.

In the U.S., gasoline prices are influenced by many factors, primarily crude oil prices and fuel demand. Currently, oil prices are relatively low, while demand in the U.S. is stagnating, resulting in falling prices. In 2022, when the situation was reversed, the Russian equivalent of AI-92 gasoline was, on average, priced at 102 rubles per liter in the U.S. (if calculated based on today’s exchange rate). Furthermore, similar to Russia, fuel prices in the U.S. vary considerably by region. However, due to the specific structure of the market, the spread in Russia is 10-30%, while in the U.S. it can reach up to 90%—the cheapest gasoline is currently found in Oklahoma (48 rubles per liter equivalent of our AI-92), while the most expensive is in California (90 rubles).

There is another nuance that has not received much attention. The regular grade gasoline, known in the U.S. as Regular or AKI 87, has become cheaper (on average) than in Russia, whereas the equivalents of our AI-95 (of which there are two in the U.S.) remain more expensive.

However, there is a flip side to this story. We cannot overlook the fact that our internal fuel prices have already caught up with those of the U.S. Moreover, our problem is that over the longer term (a year or more), gasoline prices may only continue to rise. In Russia, the price of oil barrels plays a minor role in fuel pricing, while taxes and excises carry the most weight.

As noted by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, the share of taxes in gasoline prices—whether wholesale or retail—has confidently surpassed the threshold of 70%. Over 40% of this comes from indirect taxes (VAT and excises). For instance, with the current prices and the increase in excise rates expected at the start of the year, the excise tax will comprise 13 rubles of each liter of AI-95 gasoline sold at gas stations.

Sergey Tereshkin, the general director of the OPEN OIL MARKET fuel marketplace, brings up data from the U.S. Department of Energy for October 2025, which showed that crude oil accounted for 49% of the retail price of automotive gasoline; refining costs constituted 14%, marketing and distribution 20%, while taxes accounted for 17%.

In the U.S., there is a sales tax that does not exist in Russia; however, the VAT in Russia is passed from parent to child, and then to grandchild, meaning it is levied throughout the entire sales chain, from producer to end consumer, as clarified by Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition. Additionally, taxes on oil production are at their maximum possible level.

Currently, if we do not touch taxes, there is no room for maneuver in the fuel market. Tax payments are unavoidable and will continue to rise (excises), costs have been minimized, and the volatility of oil quotes has little impact on pricing, as their weight hardly exceeds 15% of gasoline prices. There is also inflation, within which efforts are made to keep prices at gas stations stable. Consequently, gas stations have no choice but to raise their prices, albeit gradually, to achieve acceptable economic indicators.

According to Gusev, as long as prices for our fuel are tied to external (export) quotes, they will be programmed for growth. There is no expectation of deflation, and, moreover, a low inflation scenario is considered optimal. This means that fuel prices will also rise. The mechanism to smooth out rising prices (payments to oil producers from the budget for fuel supplied to the domestic market at prices below export rates, covering the difference) mitigates price increases, but as taxes and production costs rise, its influence diminishes.

It is also worth noting that the dampening mechanism prevents prices from dropping when barrel quotes fall since the budget compensation amounts are reduced. If the prices for petroleum products abroad (we are oriented towards the European market) become lower than in Russia, the dampener operates in the opposite direction—oil companies pay the budget, which makes it impossible to lower prices further. The positive effect is that sharp increases in gasoline or diesel prices cannot occur.

As Stankevich emphasizes, the upward trend in fuel prices is an entirely state-managed process through taxation and excise policies, market pricing instruments, and administrative directives from the federal headquarters to control the situation in the fuel market.
In his opinion, we need to refrain from comparing our prices in absolute terms with those in the U.S. or other countries and instead consider the purchasing power of the population. Here, the policy is aimed at the continuous growth of citizen well-being. Unfortunately, we are witnessing a situation where in several countries where gasoline prices are significantly higher than in Russia, the average per capita income allows for larger volumes of fuel purchases.

In December, despite a slight reduction in retail prices, the growth of gasoline prices in Russia has outpaced inflation by more than double since the end of last year. According to Rosstat, the average is 11.2% compared to 5.27% as of December 1st. While gasoline prices at gas stations may drop slightly by year-end, it is unlikely to fit within the average growth of consumer prices in the country.

Against this backdrop, ideas about implementing state regulation of retail fuel prices, similar to that in Venezuela or Iran, have arisen. However, as Tereshkin points out, a directive pricing model as seen in some oil-producing nations is unlikely to be feasible in Russia. This is because it is not advantageous for companies. Fuel producers cannot operate at a loss, and the regulator’s task is to ensure that suppliers can earn while consumers can buy gasoline at accessible prices.

Source: RG.RU