The heating season in Europe has just begun, but gas storage levels are depleting at record speeds. Current levels are typically characteristic of late December. What is causing Europeans to draw down their gas reserves so quickly for the winter, and what are the potential risks associated with this situation?
European countries have been extracting gas from their underground storage facilities (USFs) at unprecedented rates. Between November 15 and 30, they withdrew 7.7 billion cubic meters, surpassing November 2024 levels by 5% for the same period, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Extraction at the beginning of the month was lower.
The drawdown in November is outpacing typical consumption patterns by about a month. Historically, the EU would reach current storage levels by late December, according to a five-year average, as reported by TASS.
"The real cold weather has yet to reach Europe. Several months of winter weather lie ahead. From a technological standpoint, the reduction in storage levels decreases their efficacy. Should a particularly cold spell set in, inadequate gas reserves in the USFs could jeopardize the secure gas supply for European consumers," experts from Gazprom assert.
There are several reasons why Europeans are compelled to withdraw more gas from storage this heating season compared to 2024.
"Firstly, many European companies are currently trying to sell gas from underground storage because they fear that prices may drop even further. Having purchased and injected this gas earlier at higher prices, they are now concerned about incurring even greater losses,"
- says Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNES). As of December 2, spot prices for gas in Europe had fallen to a year-and-a-half low, reaching $335 per thousand cubic meters.
Secondly, the EU is receiving less pipeline gas than last year, with Russian gas transiting through Ukraine reduced by 15-16 billion cubic meters. "Thus, even with previous volumes of LNG, the Europeans would still need to withdraw more gas from underground storage. The quantities of gas that were previously delivered daily through Ukraine from Russia are now being offset by withdrawals from storage," explains the FNES expert.
Additionally, the EU has lost over 1 million tons per year of LNG that was shipped to the European market from two Russian projects—Kriogaz Vysotsk and Gazprom LNG Portovaya—due to U.S. sanctions halting these supplies.
The third factor is the necessity for Europeans to supply gas to Ukraine. "Previously, Ukraine purchased virtual reverse flow, essentially transit Russian gas; now it physically sources gas from European suppliers. Notably, Ukraine's own production has likely declined due to Russian strikes, compelling it to procure even more from Europe. This places European countries in a position where they must supply not only their own market but now also the Ukrainian one," says Igor Yushkov.
A fourth distinction this year is that gas consumption in Europe has slightly increased in 2025 compared to the previous year. "Gas consumption in the EU is beginning to recover after significant declines in 2022-2023 due to extremely high prices. This rebound occurred because gas prices were not prohibitively high, averaging around $400 per thousand cubic meters," Yushkov states.
However, the cold weather is not currently viewed as the primary reason for increased withdrawals from USFs compared to last year, according to the expert.
The rapid extraction of gas from underground storage presents risks of critically low gas levels by year's end.
"The most extreme scenario would occur if severe frost sets in at the end of the heating season. If cold weather strikes in February and March while storage levels are low, daily withdrawals will become increasingly challenging.
This situation could lead to gas shortages, with replenishment relying solely on current imports. Thus, Europe would be compelled to compete with Asian markets for LNG volumes, resulting in higher gas prices. This outcome would have negative repercussions for the European economy,” Yushkov explains.
Overall, there has been an increase in the share of LNG in the EU's gas import structure over the year. "The share of LNG in gas imports to the EU has risen from 37% to 45%. If the EU imported 297 million cubic meters of LNG per day during the first nine months of 2024, this figure rose to 376 million cubic meters in the same period for 2025," says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
However, as soon as the heating season commences, demand sharply increases—not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are diverting large LNG volumes to themselves through higher prices.
The colder it gets in Asia and Europe, the more both regions will compete for limited LNG supplies, further driving up prices, Yushkov concludes.
Source: VZGLYAD
