A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for more than five weeks could drive Brent crude prices up to $150 per barrel and beyond. This assessment is provided in a review by analysts at B1 Consulting (formerly EY in Russia).
The authors of the review outline three potential scenarios for the unfolding conflict in the Middle East: "Prolonged escalation," "Localization," and "Complete blockade." In the first scenario, if the current situation persists—characterized by limited traffic and regular attacks on vessels—oil production in the Gulf countries is forecasted to decline by 10 million barrels per day by February 2026, stabilizing prices above $100 per barrel.
In the "Localization" scenario, where traffic is restored within a few weeks and the strait is patrolled by the military forces of interested nations, oil prices are expected to remain below $100 per barrel.
The third scenario envisions a total cessation of maritime traffic in the strait, including Iranian vessels. This would lead to a significantly larger drop in oil production in the Middle East (though B1 does not provide a specific estimate) and create a substantial oil deficit in countries across the Asia-Pacific region, the analysts note.
The five-week timeline mentioned in the review regarding the blockade's impact on oil prices is based on the fact that a tanker from the Persian Gulf takes up to 2.5 weeks to reach buyers in East and Southeast Asia, explained Alexey Lavrukhin, head of the analytical center at B1, to Vedomosti. After five weeks, the halt in supplies would become apparent, prompting active withdrawals from reserves and a swift search for new suppliers, he added.
According to B1's estimates, in the years 2023–2025, approximately 20–25% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports transited through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, alternative routes like the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia (capacity: 5–7 million barrels per day), Habshan-Fujairah in the UAE (1.5–1.8 million barrels/day), and Kirkuk-Ceyhan in Iraq and Turkey (1.6 million barrels/day) can only support about 50% of the volumes transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the onset of military conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran in March, Iranian military forces have blocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, tracking data from MarineTraffic suggests that some vessels have still managed to pass through. Iran does not obstruct the passage of vessels from friendly countries such as China, yet most exporters are avoiding this route due to high risks, the B1 review highlights.
Disruptions to shipping in the Persian Gulf and reciprocal attacks on infrastructure by conflicting parties have significantly decreased oil production in the region. According to calculations by Vedomosti based on OPEC data, oil production in the Gulf states fell by 33% in March 2026, or 8 million barrels per day, compared to February levels, down to 16.5 million barrels per day (see publication from April 14).
On April 8, the parties declared a two-week ceasefire, during which Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. A direct round of US-Iranian negotiations mediated by Pakistan took place in Islamabad on April 11-12 but yielded no results. On April 12, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would unilaterally block the strait to prevent Iranian vessels and those that had paid Iran for passage. The blockade commenced on April 13. On April 18, Iran announced its closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against the US blockade.
The second round of US-Iranian negotiations, scheduled for April 21, has not yet occurred. Meanwhile, Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the naval blockade of the strait. Although not complete—some vessels, including Iranian ones, are still traversing the Strait of Hormuz—tracking from Kpler, as reported by CNN, shows that 17 vessels, including four tankers, passed through the strait between April 24 and 27. According to Bloomberg, maritime traffic through the strait nearly came to a halt at the beginning of this week.
Brent crude prices have stabilized around $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026. According to the ICE exchange, futures for June delivery of Brent crude were priced at $108 per barrel on April 27; before the onset of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, on February 27, the price was $72.5 per barrel.
Sergiy Teryoshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, considers the scenario of oil prices rising to $150 per barrel in 2026 to be unrealistic. He believes that supply disruptions from the Middle East will be offset by strategic reserves in China and other countries, predicting that the average price of Brent crude this year will not exceed $80 per barrel.
Senior analyst at investment bank Sinara, Alexey Kokin, and analyst at Finam Investment Group, Nikolai Dudchenko, believe that oil production in the Gulf states could decline by 10 million barrels per day to February levels as early as April. Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, suggests a decrease in production of around 9.1 million barrels per day by the end of this month. In the event of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the drop could reach 10-12 million barrels per day, according to the expert. Dudchenko even speculates that this figure could reach 14 million barrels per day without a complete blockade of the strait.
Under these circumstances, the price of oil could rise to $110–120 per barrel, predicts Kokin. Dudchenko believes that if the current situation persists, the price could hit $120–130 per barrel, and reach $150 per barrel in the event of shipping issues in the Red Sea. Kasatkin argues that should the blockade continue, prices may hit $145–155 per barrel, and with escalation that targets oil infrastructure, prices could surge to $200–215 per barrel.
A gradual oil deficit is forming in the market, becoming noticeable in certain Asian countries, warns Kasatkin. He identifies Pakistan (fuel stocks for 15 days, 85% dependence on supplies via the Strait of Hormuz) and Bangladesh (12 days) as being in a particularly critical situation, while India (30 days) and Taiwan (45 days) are in a "heightened risk zone." According to Kokin, significant supply issues may also arise for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Source:
Vedomosti
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