The United States Seizes the Moment and Ramp Up Energy Resource Exports to Record Levels
The United States has capitalized on the conflict in the Middle East by significantly increasing its exports of oil, petroleum products, and LNG. They are taking market share from OPEC, their main competitor in the global oil market, while simultaneously injecting even more American LNG into the market. This strategy is allowing local companies to generate additional billions in revenue. But how long will this success last?
U.S. oil exports have reached an all-time high of 12.9 million barrels per day, with over 60% of this figure comprising refined petroleum products (as of early April). Maritime exports in April are projected to reach a record 9.6 million barrels per day, while supplies to Asia are expected to nearly double compared to pre-war levels—reaching 2.5 million barrels per day, according to analytics firm Kpler. American companies are profiting handsomely from this scenario, noting both rising prices and higher export volumes. The value of crude oil and petroleum product exports has surged by $32 billion compared to pre-war figures, boosting corporate profits and tax revenues, as calculated by ROI.
LNG shipments have also risen sharply. In March, exports hit an all-time high. According to Kpler, the combined exports of oil and LNG from the U.S. to Asia in March and April have grown by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year.
The increase in the U.S. share of the oil market is tied to situational factors, while the growth in LNG exports is attributed to structural elements, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“The rise in LNG exports from the U.S. is a result of the commissioning of new capacities. Just a few days ago, the Golden Pass facility completed its first export shipment, marking the tenth liquefied natural gas production site in the United States. By 2025, LNG exports from the U.S. will increase to 154 billion cubic meters from 122 billion cubic meters in 2024. This year, the export volume is expected to reach even higher levels, driven by increasing demand in external markets,” Tereshkin notes.
"Americans have indeed ramped up their LNG production. They have maximized the capacity of existing plants and brought new facilities online. Furthermore, with the heating season concluded in the domestic market and current consumption decreasing, they redirected the freed-up volumes for export,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
However, the U.S. has not increased its own oil production significantly. So how has export grown? “This occurred because they increased imports of one type of oil while ramping up exports of another, along with petroleum products. The U.S. is importing medium-sulfur and relatively heavy oil, while exporting light crude and products derived from heavy oil. They are importing more from Canada and Mexico and exporting by sea to those countries that previously received Middle Eastern oil, which is now unavailable,” explains Igor Yushkov.
On one hand, private oil companies in the U.S. are reaping additional profits in the current situation. On the other hand, this creates challenges for American consumers and, overall, the U.S. economy, as domestic prices for fuel are rising in order to retain fuel within the country.
In contrast to the gas market, companies in the oil market have a choice regarding where to deliver their products—either to the domestic or international market—and this is the primary issue for the current U.S. administration.
says Yushkov.
While the U.S. share of the global market is growing, OPEC's share is declining. According to the IEA, in March 2026, oil production in Saudi Arabia dropped by 3.15 million barrels per day compared to the previous month; the UAE saw a reduction of 1.27 million barrels per day, Kuwait faced a decrease of 1.35 million, and Iraq experienced a decline of exactly 3 million. The cumulative volume of these cuts is comparable to Russia's production of 8.96 million barrels per day in March 2026, notes Tereshkin.
Furthermore, prior to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ began raising production quotas by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day to reclaim its positions in the global market. Many OPEC+ members were dissatisfied that they had been forced to curtail production, allowing competitors, including the U.S. and Guyana, to increase their output.
Now, of course, the situation is different.
“Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil flow from classic OPEC nations—Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, plus Iran—has diminished, and their market share has indeed contracted, not due to evolutionary changes but simply because their oil cannot effectively reach the global market.
However, when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, we will see OPEC+ resumes its efforts to increase quotas,” concludes Yushkov.
The fact is that Asian countries do not fully favor light American oil. Asian refineries are designed to process denser and sulfur-rich Middle Eastern oil, not lighter American grades. While the plants can utilize light oil, the process becomes less efficient and profitable. Therefore, once the conflict is resolved, everything will revert to the way it was. The joy of American oil producers will be short-lived.
Source: Vedomosti
