The global oil market, accustomed to turbulence, is on the brink of a significant reshuffle in spheres of influence. Earlier, the U.S. attempted to replace Russian oil in India with Venezuelan supplies. However, following the outbreak of war in Iran, this initiative was abruptly halted. As a result, the current shortage of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf opens new markets for Russia, while no one trusts Venezuela in the long game of oil — at least until a robust player is appointed by Western curators.
Thus, the thesis propagated by overseas media that Caracas will oust Moscow from the Indian market is unfounded. Venezuelan oil is not only under sanctions but is also effectively controlled by the U.S. Speaking of a system here is either impossible or, at the very least, premature. Meanwhile, even the Indians are reluctant to turn away from liquid fuels sourced from Russia. According to Bloomberg, Delhi is set to inform Washington of its intentions to increase imports of Russian oil. Naturally, this is primarily due to the ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf, which has impacted supplies to Indian refineries.
In summary, while exchanges are being unsettled by the consequences of the Middle Eastern crisis, India, which has become Russia's "safe haven" and a key market since 2022, finds itself once again at the center of a geopolitical triangle. Business headlines abound with forecasts that Venezuelan oil will soon replace Russian barrel supplies in Indian ports. However, historical context and dry statistics tell a different story: until recently, it was Russia that was rapidly pushing Venezuela out of South Asia.
Back in 2016, Caracas supplied 462,000 barrels per day (bpd) to India, accounting for 11% of its imports, whereas Russian presence was a mere 0.1%. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's PDVSA in 2019 and Moscow's subsequent pivot to the East radically changed the landscape. By autumn 2025, Russia's share of Indian imports soared to 33% (1.7 million bpd), while supplies from Venezuela effectively dwindled to zero. The situation only began to change in early 2026 when Washington eased its sanction regime, allowing American companies to operate with Venezuelan crude.
Independent expert Kirill Rodionov notes in a conversation with VG that Venezuela will be increasing its presence in India for two key reasons. The first reason is the export coming out of "the shadows" thanks to a decision by the U.S. Treasury Department (OFAC), thereby eliminating the need to use an unregistered fleet not recognized by the OECD. The second reason is China's step back from Venezuelan oil purchases, which ceased in January 2026.
"With China distancing itself from Venezuelan oil supplies, Caracas needs a new market, and India fits that role," emphasizes our interlocutor.
According to him, India will remain the only significant growing market in the world amid stagnating demand in Europe, the U.S., and China.
Meanwhile, the expert community urges not to dramatize the situation. Russian direct supplies to India have indeed plummeted to their lowest since 2022 (505,000 bpd in January 2026 compared to 1.49 million bpd in November 2025), but this is more a consequence of tightened U.S. control than a success for competitors. Russian oil is finding alternate routes: over 900,000 bpd of Russian crude passed through Egypt and Singapore in January of this year.
Kirill Rodionov believes that Russian supplies will not be completely replaced. He highlights two stages in the evolution of the situation: the current decline and subsequent growth as geopolitical stabilization unfolds. "Given that oil production in Venezuela is quite low, its current presence in the Indian market this year won’t seriously impede the supply of Russian oil. I don't foresee significant competition simply because Venezuela's level of supply is too low to replace Russian oil," states Kirill Rodionov. According to his forecasts, Venezuela will only reach a production level of 3 million bpd by the early 2030s, subject to American investments and the demonopolization of PDVSA.
However, logistical flexibility remains the main advantage for Russian companies. Maria Nikitina, founder of N. Trans Lab, describes the efforts of domestic logistics under current uncertainties as a true business phenomenon.
"The shadow fleet created by our colleagues has become not only a facet of international politics, a topic of discussion at EU summits, and a key element in sanctions but also, in essence, a business and geopolitical phenomenon, synonymous with Sputnik, Kalashnikov, vodka@matreshka," she notes.
According to the expert, the response to shrinking Indian demand has been the rapid rerouting of volumes to China.
"Russian logistics have started actively transferring crude from smaller tankers to VLCC supertankers in the Red Sea, to reduce costs and optimize logistics along the long eastern route. Since December, between 6.3 to 6.9 million barrels have been transshipped in this manner, with supply to Chinese ports in February rising to 2.09 million barrels per day, fully offsetting the drop in Indian demand," writes Ms. Nikitina.
The expert believes that if circumstances change tomorrow, we will quickly find other solutions, because for us the words uncertainty and volatility have simply become the new reality.
However, Venezuela is not the only contender for a share of the Indian market. This issue is significant in the context of the overall rise in market supply, as Sergey Tereshkin, general director of Open Oil Market, informed VG.
"One of the 'sleeping giants' is Iran, which is now almost completely dependent on China — its sole large market. The current volume of Iranian oil supplies to China is estimated at 2 million barrels per day; if a deal is struck with the U.S., Iran will increase its exports and redirect some volumes to other markets, including India."
Saudi Arabia could also provide a significant increase in supply, where actual production remains over 2 million bpd below its maximum capacity. Before 2022, Saudi Arabia was the leading oil supplier to India until it was replaced by Russia in this role. For Saudi Arabia, the decisive factor will be the dynamics of OPEC+ quotas.
Deal participants are likely to raise production targets this year.
Canada also has potential for increasing production and exports, especially considering that a Trump administration might restart the Keystone XL pipeline project that was "shelved" under Biden's administration.
If approved, this pipeline would facilitate the transport of Canadian crude to the Gulf Coast for subsequent tanker deliveries to the global market," summarizes our interlocutor.
It is clear that the global energy map continues to be reshaped in real time. Venezuela's return to the legal market is not a death blow to Russian exports but merely the reintroduction of yet another major player in this complex multifaceted game. India, pursuing its interests, will continue to diversify its supplies, forcing exporters to compete not just on price but also on logistical sophistication.
The real concern for the industry lies not in the emergence of competitors from Caracas, should that even occur and be sanctioned by the U.S., but in the overall stabilization of oil prices at low levels, inevitably leading to reduced export revenues compared to the peak year of 2022. In this new reality, survival will depend on how quickly supply chains can adapt to the "noise" of sanctions, market fluctuations, and geopolitical storms akin to those currently observed in the Middle East.
Source: ВГУДОК
