Eight OPEC+ countries have raised the maximum oil production level for May by 206,000 barrels per day (b/d), with Russia's quota increased by 62,000 b/d. A similar increase was agreed upon by the organization's members a month earlier. Challenges associated with passage through the Strait of Hormuz prevent some participants from increasing supply in the short term, and a more abrupt quota hike could result in a surplus in the market following the end of the conflict. For Russia, the potential for increased production depends on the stability of exports. OPEC+ announced that it will continue to assess market conditions, emphasizing the importance of a cautious approach to quota adjustments. The alliance also expressed concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that the restoration of damaged facilities will be an expensive and lengthy process. Any actions undermining the security of energy supplies, such as attacks on infrastructure or disruptions in international maritime logistics, increase market volatility, according to OPEC+. The next alliance meeting is scheduled for May 3, 2026. OPEC+ has maintained the pace of increasing quotas amid disruptions in oil supply due to the military conflict in the Middle East. According to Kpler, in the first three weeks of military actions, crude supply decreased by more than 130 million barrels. By the end of March cumulative losses could exceed 250 million barrels, and by the end of April, could reach 600 million barrels if supplies are not resumed. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, notes that leading oil-producing countries in the Middle East cannot provide a sharp increase in supply "here and now." Therefore, he explains, OPEC+ countries have made an "intermediate" decision: to raise quotas to a realistic level that can be met if the situation with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz improves. This indicates a preservation of the status quo for the market: Brent prices will continue to hover around $110 per barrel. Following the acute phase of the conflict, alliance countries will be able to increase supply without exceeding quotas, Mr. Tereshkin continues. Andrey Polischuk, a senior analyst in the oil and gas sector at Euler, states that more radical measures could lead to a surplus following the normalization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, adds that OPEC+'s decision to increase quotas in conditions where many countries in the Persian Gulf cannot fully utilize them reflects the alliance's desire to demonstrate control over the situation. However, he argues that the longer the conflict persists, the more damage the oil infrastructure in the region sustains, raising the question of how much crude these countries will be able to export after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the analytics center for Russian equities at BCS World of Investments, believes that the prospects for increased production are good owing to the rise in oil prices since February, provided that the damage from recent attacks on ports in the Leningrad region was minimal. "Increased production will help attract additional revenue for both companies and the Ministry of Finance. However, much will depend on the uninterrupted shipping of oil from key export ports," notes Sergey Tereshkin. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, in the last week of March, Russia reduced maritime oil exports from Ust-Luga by 4.5 times, to 105,000 b/d, and from Primorsk by a third, down to 730,000 b/d. For the month, overall shipments decreased by less than 1% compared to February, totaling 3.46 million b/d. Source: Kommersant