In March, Russia increased its export of diesel fuel from Baltic ports by 22% compared to February and by 34% compared to March 2025, reaching 1.78 million tons, according to the review from the Centre of Pricing Indices (CPI), which was accessed by RBC. The majority of this, approximately 1.16 million tons, was shipped from the less impacted port of Primorsk, with 400,000 tons exported via the Ust-Luga port—an increase of 80% compared to the previous month and 100% year-on-year.
However, a series of incidents at the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports complicated the export of petroleum products starting March 25. This situation overlaps with the ongoing ban on gasoline exports and may lead to a reduction in external supplies of petroleum products, including diesel, as noted by the CPI.
In late March and early April, drones attacked the Ust-Luga port multiple times, with one attack occurring on the night of March 31. According to Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko, the attack resulted in injuries to three individuals, and damage to homes and facilities in the settlement of Molodtsovo.
Earlier, on the night of March 23, the Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast was targeted by a UAV attack, which ignited storage tanks containing petroleum products. The resulting fire was localized two days later, on March 25. At that time, regional authorities reported no exceedances of permissible concentrations of hazardous substances.
The press secretary for the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, noted that necessary measures are being taken to protect critical infrastructure, including the Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast. However, he emphasized that protection efforts do not eliminate the risk of attacks on these facilities.
Furthermore, a dual situation has emerged in the petroleum product transportation market. On one hand, global freight rates have been rising sharply, while incidents in Baltic ports have increased risks for carriers, which should have led to a significant increase in freight costs, according to the CPI review. However, from March 23 to 29, rates stagnated (shifting only from -$1 to +$3 per ton) due to an oversupply of tonnage. Over the middle of the month, a significant volume of light petroleum products arrived in the Baltic, while incidents created a shortage of cargo base due to the partial suspension of terminal operations. As a result, carriers were forced to lower rates to find additional load in the region.
Reasons for Export Increase in March
Experts interviewed by RBC agreed that the increase in diesel fuel supplies from Russia in March was due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a substantial amount of Middle Eastern petroleum products from the market. Fearing fuel shortages, consumers began to deplete storage inventories, noted Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. For instance, commercial stocks at the port of Fujairah in the UAE (the most significant logistics hub in the Middle East) fell by 36% between March 2 and March 30, to 13.3 million barrels of petroleum products.
Until 2022, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to the European market, and subsequently Russian diesel began to be re-exported to the EU through Turkey. It is likely that transit supplies intensified amid the current crisis and concerns over diesel shortages in several European countries, believes Tereshkin.
According to independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov, Egypt has been involved in the re-export of Russian petroleum products to the European market since 2025. However, since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, direct exports of fuel from Russia have also increased. Importers, amidst the risk of shortages and supply disruptions from Persian Gulf countries, ceased to fear secondary US sanctions. “They understand that the primary task of the Trump administration is to mitigate the risks of rising prices amid transit issues in the Middle East; thus, Washington has relaxed monitoring of compliance with sanctions against Russia,” the expert said.
Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, notes that the current demand for petroleum products is the highest since 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a diesel shortage in Europe and South Asia, with wholesale prices in Frankfurt nearing the record levels of May 2022. “The temporary easing of sanctions has also expanded the circle of buyers, and the discount on Russian diesel to European benchmarks has shrunk to a minimum. However, the ability to realize this demand is limited: incidents in Baltic terminals are reducing export capabilities at a particularly unfortunate time for the global market,” the expert explains.
The United States has temporarily removed the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels before March 12 from the sanctions list. This license is valid until April 11 and does not apply to transactions involving Iran.
Redirecting Volumes
The volumes of diesel fuel lost due to incidents in Baltic ports can potentially be replaced by supplies through the Greater Port of Saint Petersburg and the port of Vysotsk, which collectively have a throughput capacity exceeding 400,000 tons. However, given the accident at the Kirishi refinery, the need for prompt replacement of export capacities in Primorsk is currently absent.
If the infrastructures of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are not quickly restored to sufficient capacity, diesel fuel exports through Baltic ports in April may decrease by 30–50% compared to March, believes Kasatkin. Petroleum products reach these ports via pipelines, making it physically impossible to quickly shift volumes to other directions, he explained.
Shifting to Novorossiysk or Tamansk will require rail transportation (with a distance of over 2,000 km). This significantly increases costs and is limited by the capacity of Russian Railways (RZD). According to the expert, it is realistic to redistribute no more than 15–20% of the lost volumes. Some petroleum products will enter the domestic market, which may create pressure on wholesale diesel prices within the country.
Source: RBC
