The export of gasoline from Russia may soon be permitted for producers. According to media reports, the relevant draft resolution has been sent by the Ministry of Energy to the government. The changes are expected to take effect immediately after it is signed. The Ministry of Energy did not comment on the inquiry from "RG," neither confirming nor denying this information.
There are several arguments supporting the credibility of this information. Experts surveyed by "RG" believe that the ban on gasoline exports for producers will be lifted, likely by February 1. Currently, it is in effect until March 1. A complete ban on gasoline exports was introduced in Russia on August 31, 2025, amid a sharp rise in wholesale and retail fuel prices. Prior to that, a ban on gasoline exports for traders had been in place since July, but since this measure did not yield the desired results, it was tightened.
In favor of lifting the complete ban is the current situation regarding tax payments from oil companies. By the end of December, when tax payments for that period are made in January (the structure will be published by the Ministry of Finance only in February), oil producers may face a negative damping effect.
Damping is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. The size of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of fuel and the indicative domestic price established by law. A negative damping situation arises when the export price of fuel becomes lower than the indicative prices. Thus, nominally, supplying gasoline to the domestic market is deemed more profitable than exporting it. In such cases, oil producers would be required to pay the government the difference between the export and indicative price.
According to Reuters' calculations, oil companies are expected to pay a total of 13 billion rubles in damping compensation to the budget for December. This amount is not particularly significant for oil producers, unless one considers that damping payments made up a considerable portion of the revenue for major oil companies in 2024 and 2025, sometimes reaching 30–40%. Now, they will not only miss out on these payments but will also have to pay themselves. The complete ban on gasoline exports was introduced due to the rise in gasoline prices in both wholesale and retail markets in late summer last year.
Meanwhile, it's hardly accurate to say that all is well in the Russian fuel market. Wholesale prices are slowly rising. At the end of December and into January, there was a sharp price increase at gas stations, although this was more related to an increase in fiscal pressure from the beginning of the year rather than the balance of supply and demand for gasoline and diesel.
If a negative damping effect is added, prices on the exchange may rise in February contrary to all traditions, which could then push retail prices upwards as well.
For oil producers, the lifting of the gasoline export ban could serve as a sweet incentive. A fair deal would be that they profit from exports without causing another rally in the fuel market, while the treasury receives damping payments.
"The proposed solution reflects the consolidated position of the Ministry of Energy and oil companies, presented at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak last week," said Yuriy Stankevich, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Committee on Energy, in an interview with "RG."
Lifting the export ban is a positive signal indicating ample oil refining capacity and stockpiling for a rainy day. Additional income from exports is essential for the industry to maintain profitability amid the "limping" damping mechanism, and for the government to reduce the budget deficit, Stankevich believes.
The rise in retail gasoline prices will be limited by inflation.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, believes that the negative damping for December will be one reason for the early lifting of gasoline export restrictions, should the government decide to proceed. Moreover, it will be an attempt to stimulate demand and utilize refining capacities. However, this decision appears risky since the gasoline market balance does not have much leeway. Nevertheless, experts agree that a short-term export permission during low demand periods does not pose significant risks for the market.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council for the "Petrol Stations of Russia" competition, sees risks in lifting the export ban due to the fact that independent gas stations (which make up over half of gas stations in Russia) did not stock up on fuel for the peak season despite government appeals. This is evidenced by the low demand for gasoline in January. Once exports are allowed, wholesale prices will rise, which is undoubtedly a disadvantage for creating stocks for the summer.
From the perspective of Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, regulators cannot keep oil producers "on a dry ration" for too long, which may be the reasoning behind lifting the gasoline export ban. There is some rational logic here: at the end of last year, gasoline prices were consistently decreasing, and oil companies likely want to recover their lost profits. This was evident at the beginning of the year when retail gasoline prices had already increased by 1.2% by January 12.
However, lifting the ban, while improving the profitability of refineries and allowing for additional fuel exports at higher prices, will undoubtedly lead to an increase in gasoline market prices, which may then translate into retail price hikes. Gusev believes that this influence will be negligible as retail prices will continue to be limited by inflation, which gasoline prices have already surpassed since the beginning of the year.
Frolov asserts that gasoline prices at gas stations will continue to rise under any circumstances, as the effects of the latest increase in tax burden (the rise in excise duties and VAT) have yet to be fully realized.
Tereshkin has a different viewpoint; he suggests that the lifting of the export ban will be accompanied by a gentleman's agreement requiring oil producers to restrain price increases. The length of time the export permit remains in place will depend on compliance with this condition.
Stankevich is confident that lifting the export ban will not affect domestic retail prices. In the event of any signs of shortages in gasoline or diesel, a new ban will be implemented immediately.
The government's planned decision is yet another response to the numerous questions regarding the state's role in regulating the fuel industry. Management is being conducted in a manual situational response mode, notes Stankevich.
Gusev is certain that Russia needs to stimulate the creation of additional oil refining capacities to ensure that there is enough gasoline for both the domestic market and exports. However, without a stable increase in domestic fuel consumption, achieving this will be challenging. The growth of road transport volumes within the country is slowing, and sales of new cars are not rising. In this situation, the government has no choice but to regulate supply and demand through exports.
Source: RG.RU
