According to Reuters, the facilities of Lukoil, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Surgutneftegas have come under attack, collectively accounting for over 30% of gasoline and 25% of diesel production in the country. Exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline rose by 2% over the week, while AI-95 increased by 3%. Year-on-year, gasoline prices have surged by 19-24%.

Experts, however, do not consider the situation critical. The attacks do not mean a halt in refinery operations — damages are expected to be resolved within one to fourteen days. "The market is reacting not to a physical shortage but to the risks of such a shortage," says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, drawing a parallel with the rise in oil prices prior to the onset of the Middle Eastern crisis. In case of fuel shortages in certain regions, Belarus is prepared to supply over 200,000 tons of gasoline per month duty-free. The Ministry of Energy has declared market stability, and Novak convened an emergency meeting.

Forbes examined why there is a gasoline shortage on the exchange while gas stations remain unaffected, the typical timeframe required for the recovery of damaged refineries, and how Belarus might assist.

?: Fire at the Tuapse Oil Refinery, April 16, 2026 (Photo: Maxar / Getty Images)