According to Bloomberg, the EU may suspend the automatic price cap increase until the end of 2026 or set a maximum limit at $60 per barrel.
This measure could be included in the 21st sanctions package of the EU against Russia. A European Commission representative declined to comment to the agency.
The EU and G7 countries allow their companies to provide services for the maritime transport of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries while adhering to the price cap. The value of $44.1 per barrel has been imposed by the EU, the UK, and Canada, while Japan has set a cap at $47.6 per barrel, and the USA at $60 per barrel.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, tankers affiliated with G7 countries or their allies accounted for 29.4% of Russian oil exports in April, amounting to 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), compared to 20.3% in March. The April figure was the highest in seven months.
Analysts attribute the increase in the share of G7-related tankers to signals from Western authorities indicating a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil in light of an impending raw material shortage in the global market due to the Middle Eastern conflict. Since March, the USA has issued four licenses for transactions involving Russian oil and petroleum products. The latest license is valid until June 17 and pertains to volumes loaded onto tankers by April 17.
Furthermore, the EU did not include a ban on providing transport services for Russian oil in the 20th sanctions package. Instead, the EU Council reported that a "basis for a future ban" would be established in coordination with the G7. The council's regulation noted that it would be prudent to amend the price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products, which would enable the "operational blocking" of maritime supplies.
According to Bloomberg, a complete ban on the maritime transport of Russian oil is also unlikely to be included in the 21st sanctions package against Russia.
This measure lacks support from a number of EU member states and the G7 as a whole, the agency notes. Earlier, Greece, the largest ship-owning country in Europe, opposed a complete ban. According to CAS, in April, Greek tanker operators increased the transportation of Russian oil by 2.2 times to 687,000 b/d, the highest level since October 2025.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University, states that the price cap itself does not affect the volumes of Russian exports. However, if the cap is raised and Russian oil falls within that limit, it would intensify competition between the shadow and conventional fleets, reduce freight costs, and allow Russia to earn more—this is where the complexity lies for Europeans, prompting them to reconsider their actions.
Kirill Bakhtin, head of BCS Investment World's Russian equity analytics center, points out that the level of $44.1 or $60-65 per barrel is not very important for Russian oil producers today, as the actual price is higher. According to Argus, as of May 22, Urals was priced at $84–85 per barrel depending on the loading port. "The price cap imposed by the EU is much less effective as a tool compared to the G7 cap, in our opinion," adds Bakhtin.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, comments that the price cap on oil is the most complicated restrictive measure to administer.
"While it is sufficient to monitor ships entering ports for direct imports of oil and petroleum products, tracking the price cap requires controlling hundreds and thousands of oil purchase transactions, which is technically impossible," explains the analyst. However, Tereshkin notes that a temporary refusal to implement the price cap would be an acknowledgment of the measure's ineffectiveness, thus prompting the EU to consider yet another "reconfiguration" of this mechanism. In terms of the overall market situation, he believes it will not change much.
Source: Kommersant
