Prior to this, the export ban on DF had only applied to traders, while direct diesel producers, namely oil refineries (ORFs), were allowed to sell it abroad. Earlier, in April of this year, a full ban on gasoline exports was introduced. This lag between the two bans is due to the fact that gasoline production in Russia falls short by only 10-15%, whereas diesel production exceeds domestic market needs by 40-45%. This surplus in diesel production is why it was not the first fuel to be included under the export ban.
Issues regarding fuel in Russia have arisen amid a seasonal demand increase and shutdowns of ORFs due to unscheduled repairs following drone attacks. Initially, this situation led only to rising wholesale and retail prices; however, a genuine threat of fuel shortages is now looming.
As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, in a conversation with "RG," the export ban seems to be aimed at saturating the DF supply chain. There are sufficient operating capacities, even considering the unscheduled repairs of ORFs, to meet domestic market demands. But now that exports are banned, producers will have no choice but to supply fuel to Russian consumers, whether it be on a small wholesale basis or to filling stations.
The situation is that exporting DF remains more profitable for producers in our country than supplying the domestic market. Considering the lost volumes due to refinery repairs, exports could begin to negatively impact the internal market.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Vice Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, it cannot be said that there is a diesel shortage in the country. However, given the emerging issues and internal demands in various sectors, preventive measures have become necessary to avert a potential shortage.
The expert believes that despite the government's stance on controlling fuel prices, the primary goal is to ensure fuel availability for the population and businesses. Regardless, pricing will ultimately depend on the market dynamics.
Tereshkin assumes that off-exchange prices will continue to significantly exceed exchange levels. While the price increase in the over-the-counter segment is likely to slow down.
Another nuance pertains to the technical aspects of fuel production. From a ton of crude oil, one cannot produce only gasoline or only diesel. Approximately from one ton, around 300 kg of diesel, 240 kg of gasoline, and 410 kg of other petroleum products can be derived. A decrease in diesel production due to market saturation would also impact the output of other petroleum products, and in the worst-case scenario, it could affect oil extraction. Furthermore, the ban on DF export is significantly more sensitive for Russian ORFs than the gasoline export ban, as diesel remains one of two key exported petroleum products (alongside fuel oil), known for its high margins.
Tereshkin is confident that if the ban is limited to two months, it will not adversely affect oil extraction dynamics, especially since reductions in oil refining typically lead to an increase in crude oil exports while simultaneously reducing petroleum product exports.
In addition to the diesel export ban, Novak announced that starting in July, Russia will begin importing petroleum products. This measure is expected to help saturate the domestic market, primarily with gasoline. Since the prices for imported gasoline are higher than those within Russia, the government previously decided that importers of fuel would be eligible for a damper (a budget compensation for part of the price difference between domestic fuel and its export price). This measure will prevent domestic fuel prices for gasoline and diesel from escalating, while also making such imports profitable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian ORFs could receive this damper. Now it applies to imported gasoline: for fuel from EAEU countries, a coefficient of 0.9 is established from June 1, 2026, while a separate formula for imports from other countries is introduced via import parity.
Earlier, experts estimated that the total necessary monthly import volume of fuel into Russia would hardly exceed 0.5-1 million tons, which should not significantly affect prices at filling stations.
Source: RG.RU
