The situation may change significantly in July. The list of fuel producers eligible for budget subsidies has been expanded to increase fuel supply in the domestic market. Additionally, importers of gasoline to Russia will also qualify for these subsidies. However, no growth in tax revenues from the oil and gas sector is expected; on the contrary, a decrease is more likely.
Taxes are paid based on the previous month's results; thus, the payments in June are for May, and the July payments will cover June. The price of Russian oil, Urals, which is used to calculate fiscal payments, fell from $94.87 per barrel in April to $86.52 in May and further down to $63.52 in June. Taxes are paid in rubles based on the average exchange rate to the dollar for the month. The volume of oil production is also important, but it has remained roughly stable since the beginning of the year, according to OPEC: 9.02 million barrels per day in April and 9.01 million barrels per day in May. June statistics are still forthcoming, but production may decline slightly.
In June, revenue from the main industry tax on mineral extraction (MET) decreased month-on-month by 45.6 billion rubles. A further decline is likely in July due to the decrease in the price of Russian oil in June, although this may be somewhat offset by a slight weakening of the ruble against the dollar (by 54 kopecks). Here, it becomes essential to assess how much budget subsidies to oil producers can be increased, which also depend on oil and oil product prices as well as the exchange rate.
There are two types of payments in question: the aforementioned reverse excise tax and the dampener (a budget compensation to oil producers for part of the difference between the domestic fuel price and its export price). These were received by large oil refining plants (refineries) on the condition of signing investment agreements with the state for the modernization of production, the release of fuel of at least "Euro-5" class, and the fulfillment of obligations to supply a certain volume to the domestic market. The amount paid for the reverse excise tax is tied to the volume of processed oil at these refineries. Now, the quality characteristics required to receive the reverse excise tax and dampener have been lowered, and payments are accessible to those who produce fuel by blending straight-run gasoline (a primary oil refining product) with other components. Consequently, this increases the sulfur content in the gasoline and reduces its shelf life.
Additional payments from the budget should encourage oil companies to increase fuel production.As Konstantin Simonov, head of the National Energy Security Fund, explained in a conversation with "RG", this has been done to ensure that oil companies can quickly ramp up gasoline production, albeit with lower quality, during this period of shortage, without losing reverse excise payments. However, the expert emphasizes that the requirements for production modernization have not been canceled—these remain a final goal for Russian refineries.
To boost fuel supply, importers will now also be eligible for the dampener. This decision will help to prevent domestic prices for gasoline and diesel from skyrocketing, making such supplies profitable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian refineries could receive the dampener. Now it extends to gasoline imports: for fuel from EAEU countries, a coefficient of 0.9 has been set starting from June 1, 2026, while a separate formula through import parity will apply to supplies from other countries.
According to Daniil Tyun, CEO of DA-Consulting, the budget impact may be noticeable but not catastrophic in the first month. If we use May parameters, every additional 100,000 tons of fuel falling under support could cost the budget around 2.5-2.7 billion rubles. If blending and imports facilitate an increase of 500,000 tons per month, this could result in an additional burden of 12-14 billion rubles. If the volume reaches 1 million tons, this could amount to 25-30 billion rubles per month.
Similar views were expressed by Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, albeit with a caveat. He believes that payments to importers and oil depots (gasoline production through blending) will not significantly increase the amount of lost budget revenue, provided that these emergency measures do not last more than 3-4 months.
Meanwhile, as Simonov notes, excise tax payments are tied to the price of our oil, while the dampener is linked to the export price of oil products. As a result, payments related to both will decline, albeit along with oil and gas revenues. Overall, these payments are not expected to pose a severe challenge to budget revenues. The key is that they should act as an incentive for oil companies to ramp up production, the expert believes.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the amount of payouts will be influenced by the current correction in the oil market, which reflects on the dynamics of external prices for oil products. Therefore, dampener payments for fuel producers are unlikely to exceed 200 billion rubles (210.6 billion rubles in June). Regarding payments to importers, relatively low supply volumes will act as a limiting factor.
Tyun believes that the adopted measures can work without causing serious damage to the treasury only as a short-term crisis scheme—over a few months—while refineries are restored and the seasonal fuel deficit is closed. If Urals remains above $60-65 per barrel and imports and blending remain selective, the budget can sustain the additional payout of 10-30 billion rubles per month. However, if oil falls below $55-60, the ruble remains strong, and the dampener stays above 200 billion rubles monthly, the mechanism will quickly erode oil and gas revenues. The main risk is that the decisions made currently treat symptoms rather than the underlying cause. The root cause is the decline in fuel output due to problems at refineries. In such a situation, the dampener and reverse excise can stabilize prices and stimulate supply, but they do not replace actual refining, the expert emphasizes.
Source: RG.RU
