The government's first-ever ban on aviation kerosene exports will shield the market from unplanned fuel price spikes. The embargo will remain in force until the end of November. Cabinet noted that the decision aims to ensure stability in the domestic market. Experts believe this will add approximately 2 million tonnes of fuel but will not lead to lower airfare prices. At the same time, the measure is expected to cool wholesale exchange prices, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal hike, meaning ticket prices will not rise at an accelerated pace.
Temporary ban on aviation kerosene exports
The government has introduced a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene for the first time, effective until 30 November 2026. The decision is aimed at ensuring a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, the Cabinet press service reported.
'The government continues its work to maintain reliable and uninterrupted fuel supplies to the domestic market. A new regulation imposes a temporary ban on the export of jet fuel from Russia, including fuel purchased on exchange trading floors. The restriction will be in place until 30 November 2026 inclusive,' the statement said.
Exceptions will apply to batches of aviation kerosene placed under customs procedures before the regulation came into force, supplies under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft in transit, the Cabinet noted.
Russia currently also has a ban on petrol exports for all market participants until 31 July 2026. Until the same date, restrictions remain for non-producers on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel and other types of gasoil.
There are no official figures on the volume of aviation kerosene production and consumption in Russia. Izvestia has sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Russian aviation kerosene market stood at 10.01 million tonnes per year in 2024, with production at 11.6 million tonnes. The surplus fuel was exported abroad.
According to Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of aviation kerosene in Russia.
'At the moment, there is no shortage. In any situation, we proceed from the interests of our airlines,' he said.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, traditional consumers of Russian-produced aviation kerosene are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
'Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually narrowing against the backdrop of growing domestic demand. For example, in April 2026, no aviation kerosene was shipped by sea,' she noted.
Earlier, media reported that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had instructed that a number of additional issues be addressed to stabilise the domestic fuel market. In particular, consultations with Belarus were to be held to increase petrol supplies to Russia, and the possibility of increasing import damping payments, including for Belarusian fuel, was to be discussed, with a corresponding amendment to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation made retroactively from 1 June 2026.
However, an industry source at Izvestia could not confirm this information. According to him, Minsk already supplies fuel to the Russian market, which is produced from Russian oil.
'Moreover, Russia pays the damping mechanism to Belarusian producers,' the source noted.
Another industry source at Izvestia believes that if increasing damping payments is under discussion, the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to agree.
'Last month, fuel damping payments amounted to 207 billion roubles, compared to 15 billion roubles paid by oil companies in March,' he noted.
According to the National Exchange Price Agency, 17,340 tonnes of petrol from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange in Russia from 1 to 22 May. This is 58 times more than in the same period in 2025.
The two Belarusian refineries—Mozyr and Novopolotsk—produce 3–3.5 million tonnes of petrol per year, while domestic consumption is up to 1.2 million tonnes per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner at VMT Consult, Russia produces over 40 million tonnes per year, while consumption is around 38–39 million tonnes per year.
Why the government imposed the aviation kerosene export ban
Last week, as Izvestia reported citing industry sources, the government discussed introducing a ban on both diesel and aviation fuel exports. According to the sources, this issue was raised at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Middle East conflict, demand and competition for Russian energy resources have surged sharply, experts noted. They described a fuel export ban as highly relevant given the overall situation on the global oil market, because following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, the petroleum products market has become extremely attractive and profitable, creating a temptation for Russian oil companies to increase their fuel supplies to external markets.
'To prevent this temptation from being realised, the government is introducing an embargo, or at least considering that possibility,' noted Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, experts leaned towards the view that if an export ban were imposed, it would be on aviation kerosene, as diesel fuel production in Russia is more surplus.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner at VMT Consult, Russia produces about 80 million tonnes of diesel per year and consumes only half of that volume. As for aviation kerosene, production is approximately 11–12 million tonnes, with consumption around 10 million tonnes.
'Thus, the market will receive approximately 2 million tonnes of additional aviation fuel,' emphasised Ekaterina Kosareva.
According to open-source data, 2 million tonnes of aviation kerosene is enough for 18,000–26,000 full refuellings of long-haul aircraft or 66,000–133,000 refuellings of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Russian civil aviation performs between 2,100 and 2,300 flights per day, meaning this volume would last approximately two to three months of operations for the entire country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the industry agency AviaPort, considering 2 million tonnes as the volume that cannot be exported due to the ban does not automatically mean an increase in its domestic consumption.
'According to statements from the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, no fuel shortage is expected, but there are also no grounds to forecast a significant increase in domestic traffic volumes for the year. Consequently, there are no prerequisites to believe that significantly more fuel will be needed,' he noted.
Nevertheless, holding reserves is a factor of strategic stability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tonnes accounts for the fact that fuel supplies to external markets may continue under intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association 'Reliable Partner', believes that systematic work is needed, including damping mechanisms for airlines.
'First of all, reserves should be built up, and secondly, price risks should be hedged to eliminate questions about potential kerosene shortages during certain periods. In this context, closing aviation fuel exports is a preventive measure aimed at saturating the domestic market,' the expert noted.
However, he believes that overall, economic entities are expected to show greater independence—they must understand that to increase aviation fuel consumption, they need to make purchases in advance and hedge risks, rather than shifting these tasks to the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years Russia has seen a surplus of aviation kerosene—production (about 11.6 million tonnes per year) exceeded domestic consumption (around 8.5–9 million tonnes).
'At the same time, consumption is highly uneven—it rises in June–August during the summer holiday season. Accordingly, 2–2.5 million tonnes were exported annually. The main destinations were Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan—as well as Turkey, the Middle East, and Asia,' the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent requests to all major Russian oil companies and air carriers.
How the government's decision will affect the market
According to the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the price of aviation fuel on over-the-counter trades rose by 7.14% from the beginning of May—from 78,991 roubles per tonne on 1 May to 84,634 roubles on 31 May. Meanwhile, as of 25 May, one tonne of aviation kerosene cost 96,776 roubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the excise duty on aviation kerosene has remained unchanged for almost 10 years: a rate of 2,800 roubles per tonne has been in effect since 2017. For comparison, the excise duty on Class 5 petrol increased from 10,130 roubles per tonne in 2017 to 17,959 roubles per tonne in 2026, and the excise duty on diesel fuel rose from 6,800 roubles to 12,738 roubles over the same period.
'A fixed excise duty should have a stabilising effect on the cost of aviation kerosene. However, in practice, exchange prices have risen from 80,000 to almost 100,000 roubles per tonne over the past two months. The export ban may slow the price increase, but prices will not return to previous levels anytime soon,' the expert emphasised.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure against the risks of an aviation kerosene shortage in the country. Halting exports will allow reserves to be built up ahead of the peak summer navigation season, the Izvestia source believes.
An industry source told the editorial team that the share of fuel in the price of an airline ticket is currently not a fixed value; 'it fluctuates greatly depending on the price of kerosene.'
According to him, it is 'approximately 25–30% of the ticket price, but can be lower when prices fall and higher when they rise sharply.'
'As for ticket prices, the embargo on aviation kerosene exports will not lead to their reduction. After all, other factors are putting pressure on their cost: higher aircraft maintenance and repair costs under sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and general inflation. However, at the same time, the embargo will prevent a sharp rise in ticket prices, which could have occurred in the event of an acute kerosene shortage on the domestic market,' said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban will most likely cool wholesale prices on the St Petersburg Exchange, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price spike. Consequently, ticket prices will not rise at an accelerated pace. Meanwhile, domestic consumption will not increase in physical volumes, but the market will be reliably insured against shortages.
Source: Izvestia
