According to the existing law, starting March 1, 2026, foreign companies and Russian legal entities with more than 20% foreign participation will not be able to survey commodity markets in Russia. The new amendments imply exemptions for foreign organizations whose data is utilized in tax legislation. The amendments are proposed to apply to relationships that arose starting March 1.
The key beneficiary of these changes remains the UK-registered Argus. The proposal to maintain the agency's quotations for oil tax calculations was initiated by the Ministry of Finance, as noted by Deputy Minister Alexey Sazanov on March 19 this year reported. As early as autumn 2025, Argus notified the ministry of the risks related to a reduction in its activities in Russia and requested regulatory adjustments.
The agency's quotations are used by the Ministry of Finance to calculate mineral extraction taxes and for the fuel damping mechanism (a budgetary compensation for the difference between export and domestic prices). The Ministry of Economic Development also applies this data when determining export duties.
Import Substitution of Indicators
It was planned that starting in 2024, Russia would transition to its own index for oil tax calculations. Amendments to the Tax Code proposed using quotations based on the oil price in over-the-counter transactions on the St. Petersburg Exchange. However, the Ministry of Finance raised questions regarding its representativeness, thus delaying the transition to exchange indices until 2025.
For the past several years, the St. Petersburg Exchange has been promoting the idea of an alternative to global price indicators for taxation in the oil sector. In January 2025, the National Exchange Price Agency (NEPA) was created based on the exchange. It generates price indices and indicators based on data from exchange trading and the registration of over-the-counter transactions, as well as information from market participants. At that time, the exchange proposed using its indices for calculating oil taxes but was met with a rejection from the Ministry of Finance.
Currently, the St. Petersburg Exchange is not engaged in any discussions with the government or the Ministry of Finance regarding the use of exchange price data for oil extraction taxation, a representative of the trading platform informed RBC.
In the conclusion to the draft law from the Institute of Legislation and Comparative Law under the Government, the need for the amendments is justified by the reduction of risks for budget revenues. It notes that the changes are targeted and ensure the continuity of administrative procedures for calculating export duties and tax bases, while also supporting regulatory predictability for all market participants by maintaining existing payment calculation methodologies.
RBC has sent inquiries to Argus, the government press service, and the Ministry of Finance.
Why the Ministry of Finance Values Argus Indices
The Ministry of Finance aims to minimize the risks of losses in oil and gas revenues when determining prices. As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market, the Argus methodology is the most recognized in the industry and, importantly for the Ministry of Finance, it remains neutral concerning the influence of oil producers, traders, and other market participants. Moreover, Argus data is based on a substantial number of transactions in the spot market, which reflects the real situation in the market.
Regarding the Urals delivery futures on the St. Petersburg Exchange, Tereshkin adds that the liquidity of trading in this instrument is insufficient for this indicator to be considered a reliable source of market data.
In the absence of the proposed amendments, the Ministry of Economic Development will not have official data for calculating budget payments, explained Vladimir Gruzdev, Chairman of the Russian Lawyers Association. "The exception that the legislator makes regarding the start date of the ban gives government authorities time to prepare national market monitoring indicators. It is expected that after September 1, 2028, state authorities will be able to utilize studies conducted without the participation of foreign organizations," he stated.
Since 2023, the Center for Price Indices (CPI) has also been operating in Russia. It publishes indices based on similar specifications used in Russian legislation for taxes, reported CPI CEO Natalia Porokhova. The Center operates according to the practices of international agencies and is undergoing accreditation by the Bank of Russia. The methodologies of the CPI have been reviewed by federal government bodies in State Duma committees.
According to Porokhova, the primary obstacle to replacing the UK agency's quotations lies within legislative norms that have cemented its monopoly in Russia. "Russia has already gone through a path of import substitution in similar industries where the inertia of the global payment, rating, and reinsurance infrastructure complicates the development of national players. Changes are expected here, as the destruction of the world price benchmarks system has been occurring since 2022, particularly in the last month," she adds.
At the same time, there are challenges in forming the main price benchmark for Asia—Dubai. The Urals oil is increasingly less dependent on Brent as it is supplied to Asian markets. This will inevitably lead to changes in oil price benchmarks, and it is crucial not to support the inertia of ties within Russian legislation, Porokhova believes. She also emphasizes that Argus itself emerged during the oil shocks of the 1970s when oil trading underwent radical changes. The oil shocks of 2026 are also altering trade and providing Russia with an opportunity to establish its own price benchmarks.
Source: RBC
