Last week, Rosstat recorded another acceleration in fuel price growth at gas stations. Over the week, prices increased by 0.2%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% the previous week. At first glance, this may seem insignificant, but for a season of low demand, it represents a significant rise. This rate is considerably higher than for the same period in 2025, and in 2024 and 2023, gasoline prices in the first half of February did not change at all. At the beginning of the year, the price increase was explained fairly simply: fuel excise taxes rose by 5.1%, adding 60-80 kopecks to the price of a liter. Additionally, the VAT increased from 20% to 22%. This tax is levied on every sale, and there are usually intermediaries between gas stations and refineries. Since the end of last year (December 22), the price of AI-92 gasoline has increased by 84 kopecks, AI-95 by 97 kopecks, AI-98 by 2 rubles and 39 kopecks, and diesel fuel (DT) by 1 ruble and 39 kopecks. The count is taken from the end of last year rather than the beginning of this year because gas stations begin to play off the increased fiscal burden in advance. A sharp price jump after the New Year holidays could attract the attention of regulators; hence, the increase is gradual. In previous years, by February, the price rise due to tax changes had subsided. Other factors then came into play: demand, exports, refinery repairs, and so on. Demand has certainly increased compared to early January, and gasoline consumption is gradually starting to rise, but we are still far from the spring peak. On February 1, the government allowed gasoline exports for refineries, which immediately affected trading volumes on the exchange, causing them to decrease. In this context, exchange quotations rose, but not dramatically. They remain distant from the peaks of last autumn and are closer to levels seen in June 2025. Moreover, the short period since the lifting of the export ban for refineries means that it has not yet impacted retail prices. Furthermore, if the price situation worsens, the government can quickly reinstate the ban on gasoline exports for refineries, a crucial source of income for these plants. The market for petroleum product supply has fully transitioned to manual regulation, said Yuri Stankevich, Vice-Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, in an interview with "Rossiyskaya Gazeta." All levers now rest with the government, which responds situationally. This approach allows for immediate market saturation with motor fuel and adjustments to export and domestic supply volumes. However, it also has significant drawbacks: issues of current profitability in both oil extraction and refining are relegated to the background. The government can quickly reimpose a complete ban on gasoline exports. Additionally, two more factors are currently influencing price increases in wholesale and retail markets: the news backdrop and the poor economic state of gas stations, many of which operated at a loss for a considerable part of last year. They are now in a position to recover losses and "put on extra weight" for the next difficult period. Regarding the news backdrop, it has been particularly unstable lately. Oil companies are anticipating a negative price stabilization mechanism for January (to be disbursed in February). This mechanism is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of fuel and the indicative domestic price set by law. A negative stabilization mechanism occurs when the export price of fuel falls below the indicative prices. Thus, nominally, gasoline sales to the domestic market are considered more profitable than exports, requiring oil companies to pay the government the difference between the export and indicative prices. January presented precisely such a scenario. In 2024 and 2025, stabilization payments constituted a significant portion of the revenues for major oil companies. Now, not only will they not receive these payments, but they will also have to pay into the budget. According to Stankevich, the concept of collecting additional funds from companies through the stabilization mechanism in conditions of ultra-low prices for Russian oil is economically short-sighted. It is an attempt to address the task of reducing the federal budget deficit through administrative methods. However, the oil industry cannot sustain accumulating losses for long, as energy security issues remain an unequivocal priority. As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, much will depend on negotiations between companies and regulators. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy to propose revisions to the stabilization mechanism, considering the views of fuel producers. It is likely that a consensus solution will be reached in the coming weeks. The urgency of this matter is clear. Demand for fuel has already begun to rise, and this trend will only accelerate in March and April. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a slowdown or, even more so, a decrease in prices at gas stations. Tereshkin believes that price increases will follow the formula of "inflation minus," reflecting the accelerating growth of prices across the economy as a whole. Stankevich believes that much will depend on the path the government chooses. It is a challenging choice: to lower the expectations of the budget from the oil sector or to offer the industry a mechanism for compensating losses through increases in exchange, wholesale, and retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. Managing partner of NEFT Research Sergey Frolov believes that price growth will accelerate. However, he states that this will not be due to the size and direction of stabilization payments. The main causes of price rises will lie in the balance of supply and demand. Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, expressed a distinct opinion. He is confident that the state has the ability to regulate the market through administrative measures. However, the market requires more stability; the current environment is too fraught with anxiety. Consumers are unaware of fuel production levels or stock levels, as this data is not publicly available. However, exchange quotations are public, and consequently, any upward movement in them tends to incite panic. The expert suggests that it would be logical to close those exchanges as well. Source: RG.RU