Global Energy News as of February 10, 2026: Dynamics of Oil and Gas Prices, OPEC+ Decisions, LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity, Renewables, and Coal. Summary and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
The global energy sector at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative stability despite conflicting factors. Oil prices remain at moderate levels, while the market balances between projected oversupply and ongoing geopolitical risks. Europe experiences volatility in the gas market amid low inventories and weather factors, while the energy transition gains momentum: renewable energy sources (RES) are breaking records in implementation, and coal has reached peak demand. Below are the key news and trends in the oil and gas sector and energy on the current day.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply and Price Stability
The oil market entered 2026 showing signs of oversupply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), a significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter – up to 4 million barrels per day (about 4% of global demand). This is due to the fact that total oil production is growing faster than demand: OPEC+ countries increased supplies in 2025, supplemented by rising exports from the USA, Brazil, Guyana, and other producers. As a result, global inventories may begin to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices.
However, oil prices remain relatively stable for now. Since the beginning of the year, Brent prices have risen by about 5–6%, partially due to geopolitical concerns. Brent is trading around $60–65 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $55–60 per barrel, which is close to the levels of late 2025. Several risk factors are preventing a price decline: in early January, the USA detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, urging oil companies to invest in the country's production. In the short term, this led to supply disruptions of Venezuelan oil. Additionally, Washington hinted at possible strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, and production in Kazakhstan decreased due to technical issues and drone attacks on fields. These events create a geopolitical premium in oil prices and maintain investor interest.
To maintain balance, OPEC+ is adhering to a cautious strategy. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, decided to pause after a series of production increases: they have resolved to keep quotas unchanged at least until the end of March 2026. Major exporters are keen to prevent market oversaturation: they believe that fundamental market indicators are “healthy,” commercial oil inventories remain relatively low, and the goal is to maintain price stability. If necessary, OPEC+ reserves the right to promptly adjust production – both up (returning previously reduced volumes of 1.65 million barrels per day) and down if market conditions demand. Meanwhile, demand for oil continues to grow moderately: the global demand forecast for 2026 has been improved to ~0.9–1.0 million barrels per day, thanks to the normalization of the economy and lower prices than a year ago. Overall, the oil market enters the year with a fragile balance: the expected surplus is softened by OPEC+ efforts and the threat of supply disruptions, keeping oil within a relatively narrow price corridor.
Natural Gas Market: Low Inventories and High Volatility
The global gas market at the beginning of 2026 is experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in Europe. After a calm autumn, during which prices were stable in a narrow range (€28–30 per MWh at the TTF hub), volatility returned in January. In the first weeks of the new year, gas prices in the EU surged sharply – peaking on January 16 when quotes exceeded €37 per MWh. This was caused by a complex of factors: forecasts of colder weather and the approach of severe frosts at the end of January increased demand, while inventory levels turned out to be significantly lower than normal. By mid-January, European underground gas storage was drained to ~50% of capacity (compared to ~62% a year earlier and a 5-year average of 67% for that date). This is the lowest filling level in recent years (after the crisis winter of 2021/22), and market participants realized that without active imports, Europe faces significant depletion of reserves.
Additionally, gas prices were affected by supply disruptions of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA early in the year, caused by technical and weather-related factors, as well as geopolitical risks – rising tensions around Iran. Simultaneously, demand in Asia for LNG increased due to cold weather, intensifying competition for spot cargoes. Combined, these factors compelled traders to close short positions, driving prices up. However, by the end of January, the situation stabilized somewhat: after passing the initial cold spells, the price retreated to ~€35 per MWh. Analysts note that volatility has re-emerged in the EU gas market, though panic peaks, as seen in 2022, have not yet been observed.
- Low Inventories: As of the end of January, EU storage was only about 45% full (the lowest level for this time of year since 2022). If drawdowns continue at the current pace, inventories could drop to 30% or lower by the end of winter. This means approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas need to be injected during the summer to reach a filling level of 90% by November 1 (the new EU energy security target).
- LNG Imports: The primary resource for replenishment will be imported liquefied gas supplies. Over the past year, Europe increased LNG purchases by ~30%, reaching record levels of ~175 billion cubic meters. In 2026, this figure will continue to rise: the IEA expects global LNG production to grow by ~7%, reaching new historical peaks. New export terminals are coming online in North America (USA, Canada, Mexico), and by 2025–2030, a total of up to 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity is expected to be introduced (about +50% of the current market volume). This will help partially compensate for the falling Russian volumes.
- Abandoning Russian Gas: The EU officially intends to completely halt imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Already, the share of Russia in European imports has shrunk to ~13% (compared to 40–45% prior to 2022). In 2025–2026, the embargo will tighten, further reducing gas supply in Europe by tens of billions of cubic meters. This deficit is expected to be covered by LNG from the USA, Qatar, Africa, and other sources. However, analysts warn that such dependence on transatlantic supplies poses risks: according to IEEFA research, 57% of LNG supplies to the EU in 2025 came from the USA, and this share could rise to 75–80% by 2030, contradicting diversification goals.
- Price Anomalies: Interestingly, the futures price structure for gas in Europe currently exhibits an inverse situation – summer contracts for 2026 are trading at higher prices than winter contracts for 2026/27. This backwardation contradicts normal logic (when winter gas should be more expensive than summer gas) and may hinder storage operators from justifying injections economically. Possible explanations include the market pricing in expectations for stable LNG supplies year-round or anticipating government interventions (subsidies, storage filling mandates). However, experts warn that if price signals do not normalize and reservoirs are not filled to adequate levels, Europe risks entering the next winter without the necessary buffer, which could lead to a new spike in prices.
Overall, the natural gas market remains resource-rich but extremely sensitive to weather and policy changes. There will be significant work to replenish stocks in the summer, and much will depend on the dynamics of global LNG trade and coordination of measures at the EU level. For now, the current softness in prices (compared to the crisis year of 2022) reflects a certain calmness among traders – but this may prove deceptive if winter drags on or new supply disruptions arise.
Oil Products and Refining (Refineries)
The oil products segment is experiencing mixed trends at the start of the year. On one hand, global demand for oil products, especially jet fuel and diesel, remains high due to economic recovery and transportation growth. On the other hand, product supply is increasing due to rising refining capacity in Asia and the Middle East, though this is influenced by sanctions and incidents. In the early months of the year, global refineries traditionally enter a maintenance season: many refineries shut down for planned repairs. As a result, in Q1, total throughput decreases, temporarily reducing demand for oil and contributing to an increase in crude surplus. The IEA notes that the upcoming mass maintenance of refineries amplifies the oil oversupply in the market – without additional production cuts, it will be challenging to avoid stock accumulation during this period.
Meanwhile, refining margins remain decent overall. At the end of 2025, global refining capacities were operating at high utilization: for example, oil refining in China broke records, reaching ~14.8 million barrels per day (on average over 2025, +600,000 barrels from 2024 levels). This is due to the introduction of new plants and China's aim to increase oil product exports. South Korea also reached a record in diesel exports in 2025 – Asian producers are filling the niche created by the redistribution of flows from Russia. Strong demand for diesel fuel (especially in the transport and industrial sectors) supports high prices for distillates and the profits of refineries focused on diesel output. However, gasoline markets have experienced some weakness: excess capacities and slowing growth in vehicle traffic have pushed gasoline margins down in Asia and Europe to their lowest levels in the past year. Nevertheless, the upcoming summer driving season could change the situation.
Russian Oil Products and Sanctions: It is worth noting the changed flows of Russian oil products in the global market under the influence of sanctions. At the end of 2025, the USA imposed additional sanctions against the largest oil companies in Russia, including Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating trade in their refined products. According to industry sources, in early 2026, the export of Russian fuel oil to Asia slowed: increased compliance control of sanctions and fear of secondary measures are causing many buyers to avoid direct deals. Fuel oil shipments to Asian countries in January decreased for the third consecutive month and were approximately half of the level a year ago (about 1.2 million tons compared to 2.5 million tons in January 2025). Some shipments are being redirected to warehouses and floating storage in anticipation of resale, while some tankers are taking circuitous routes around Africa, obscuring their final destination. Traders note that the scheme for selling Russian products has become more complicated – multi-step chains with transshipments in neutral waters are often used to conceal the fuel's origin.
Besides sanctions, military methods have also curtailed product exports from Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes on border refineries in Russia in the autumn of 2025 damaged several facilities, reducing output. As a result, the supply of Russian fuel oils and other heavy oil products to the Asian market at the beginning of 2026 has somewhat decreased, which has even lent support to regional prices for these types of fuels. Nevertheless, key markets for Moscow remain Southeast Asia, China, and the Middle East – these are where the main volumes continue to flow, as Western sanctions do not allow a return to traditional markets.
Overall, the global market for oil products is gradually readjusting to a new geography. Most of the growth in refining capacities in the coming years is expected to be in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa – where 80–90% of new refineries are being introduced. This intensifies competition for fuel markets. In Europe, on the contrary, several plants have reduced their operational capabilities due to high energy prices and the cessation of supplies of cheap Russian crude oil. The EU completely banned the import of Russian oil products as early as the beginning of 2023, and over the past two years European refineries have reoriented to other grades of oil, albeit at the cost of rising expenses. By the end of winter 2026, prices for major oil products are at relatively stable levels: diesel is trading consistently high due to limited global inventories, while prices for gasoline and fuel oil are showing moderate dynamics. The upcoming exit of refineries from maintenance in spring may increase product supply, but much will depend on seasonal demand and the global economy.
Coal: Record Demand and Signs of Decline
Despite the active growth of renewable energy, coal still plays a significant role in the global energy landscape. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand in 2025 reached a historic peak – about 8.85 billion tons per year (an equivalent of ~+0.5% to 2024 levels). Thus, coal consumption set a record for the second consecutive year, largely due to the economic recovery post-pandemic and increased demand for electricity. However, experts note that this peak may become a "plateau": global coal consumption is expected to slowly but steadily decline by the end of the decade.
Trends are heterogeneous by region. In China – the largest coal consumer (over half of global consumption) – coal use in 2025 was near consistently high, with only a slight decline forecast by 2030 due to the large-scale introduction of RES and nuclear power plants. India, the second-largest market, surprisingly reduced coal consumption in 2025 – only the third time in 50 years. This was facilitated by extremely strong monsoons: ample rainfall filled reservoirs, and record hydroelectric generation reduced the need for coal generation, while slowing industrial growth also played a role. Meanwhile, the USA increased coal consumption in 2025 – this increase is attributed to high natural gas prices, making coal generation economically more viable in certain regions. Additionally, political factors played a part: President Donald Trump, who took office in early 2025, signed an order supporting coal-fired power plants, preventing their closure and stimulating production. This measure temporarily revived the US coal industry, although long-term coal competitiveness is declining there.
In Europe, coal use continued to decline in 2025, as EU countries strive to meet climate goals and replace coal with gas and RES. The share of coal in electricity generation in the EU fell below 15%, and this trend accelerated after 2022, when Europe sharply reduced imports of Russian coal (from 50% to 0% of consumption). Overall, the IEA believes global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years and then decline: renewables, natural gas, and nuclear energy gradually push coal out of the energy mix, particularly in electricity generation. By 2025, global generation from RES equaled fossil fuel generation for the first time. Nevertheless, this transition will be gradual. Experts warn that if there is a quicker increase in electricity demand or delays in the introduction of clean capacities, coal demand may temporarily exceed forecasts. Much depends on China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined: any fluctuations in the Chinese economy are instantly reflected in the coal market.
In the meantime, the coal mining industry feels rather stable: coal prices remain quite high due to demand in Asia. However, mining companies and energy producers are already preparing for the inevitable transformation. Investments are increasingly directed not toward new mines but to retrofitting facilities, carbon capture technologies, and social programs for coal-dependent regions. In the long run, phasing out coal is seen as one of the key steps toward achieving climate goals aimed at limiting global warming.
Electricity and Renewables: A Green Leap
The electricity sector is entering a new era of accelerated development of renewable technologies. According to the IEA's report “Electricity 2026,” we will see radical shifts in the generation structure during this decade. In 2025, global electricity production from RES (primarily solar and wind power plants) equaled that from coal plants, and starting in 2026, clean sources begin to surpass coal. It is expected that by 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear energy in global electricity production will reach 50%. The rapid growth is driven primarily by solar energy: new photovoltaic plants are being introduced each year, adding over 600 TWh of generation annually. With wind included, the overall increase in renewable generation by 2030 will amount to around 1000 TWh annually (+8% per year compared to current levels).
At the same time, global electricity demand is also surging sharply – by an average of 3–4% per year in 2024–2030, which is 2.5 times faster than the growth of overall energy consumption. Reasons include industrialization in developing countries, widespread adoption of electric transport (electric vehicles, electric public transport), and digitization (data processing centers, increased use of air conditioning and electronics). Thus, even with the rapid development of RES, fossil generation cannot be fully displaced instantly: to balance energy systems, electricity production from gas-fired plants is also increasing. Natural gas is viewed as a “transition fuel,” and gas generation will grow until 2030, albeit at a slower pace than renewables.
Infrastructure and Reliability: Such high dynamics pose challenges for infrastructure. Existing power grids and energy storage systems require substantial investments to integrate intermittent sources like solar and wind. The IEA emphasizes that to meet growing demand and ensure reliability, annual investments in electrical networks must increase by 50% by 2030 (compared to the previous decade's levels). A breakthrough in energy storage technologies and load management is also essential to smooth out peaks and fluctuations in RES generation.
Europe vs USA: Climate Policy and Wind: The global energy transition is proceeding unevenly: there are discrepancies in the policies of different countries. In the European Union, the green agenda remains a priority – even in light of the 2022 energy crisis, the EU is accelerating the deployment of RES. By the end of 2025, electricity generation from wind and solar plants in the EU surpassed generation from fossil fuels for the first time. European governments aim to further increase capacities: nine countries (including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, and others) have agreed on joint major projects in the North Sea to achieve 300 GW of offshore wind farm capacity by 2050. By 2030, plans are in place to ensure at least 100 GW of offshore wind energy through cross-border projects. This RES expansion is designed to provide stable, secure, and affordable energy supply, create jobs, and reduce dependence on fuel imports.
Not without challenges: the rise in interest rates and rising material costs in 2024–2025 led to some tenders for wind farm construction (for example, in Germany and the UK) receiving no bids – investors demanded better project economics. European leaders acknowledge the problem and are willing to enhance support: additional guarantees, targeted subsidies, and contracts for difference mechanisms are being considered to make wind farm construction more attractive for business.
In contrast to the EU, in the USA, there has been a partial rollback of government support for clean energy. The new administration, which came to power in 2025, is skeptical about several green initiatives. President Trump publicly critiqued Europe's course towards RES, calling wind turbines "unprofitable" and claiming (without evidence) that "the more windmills, the more money the country loses." Consequently, US authorities have turned their attention to supporting traditional energy sources: in addition to coal support, offshore wind energy projects have also come under close scrutiny. In December 2025, the US Department of the Interior unexpectedly suspended the implementation of several major offshore wind farms, citing new data about potential threats to national security (e.g., interference with military radar). This decision affected the nearly completed Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts. Major energy companies – investors in wind farms (Avangrid/Iberdrola, Orsted, etc.) – challenged the moratorium in court. In January 2026, they achieved initial victories: a federal judge blocked the administration's order, allowing the resumption of construction at Vineyard Wind (which is already 95% complete). Legal battles continue, and the industry hopes to ensure that projects do not lose much time. Nonetheless, the uncertainty created by such actions could chill investors in US RES, while Europe demonstrates its determination to move forward.
Other RES Directions: Renewable energy is not only wind and solar. Many countries are ramping up the construction of energy storage infrastructure (industrial batteries), developing hydropower, and geothermal plants. There is also a resurgence of interest in nuclear power as a carbon-free source. For example, private investors are supporting new small modular reactor projects. In Italy, the startup Newcleo raised €75 million in February for developing innovative compact reactors that run on reprocessed nuclear fuel. The company has already raised €645 million since 2021 and plans accelerated development: constructing a pilot reactor and entering the US market – one of the most dynamic markets for advanced nuclear technologies. Such initiatives indicate that the nuclear sector can play an important role in decarbonization alongside RES.
As a result of efforts towards energy transition, price effects are already visible in several regions. For instance, in Europe, by the end of 2025, wholesale electricity prices decreased compared to autumn – influenced by seasonal demand drops and high output from renewable sources (winds and warm weather). However, reliability issues remain: Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in a dire state due to ongoing bombardments, leading to electricity supply interruptions during winter. On a global scale, half of the new generation capacities introduced in the world now come from solar and wind stations. This gives confidence that although fossil fuels will remain in the mix for a long time, the energy transition is gaining irreversible momentum.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Hopes and Reality
Political factors continue to significantly shape the situation in energy markets. Sanction standoffs between the West and key energy suppliers – Russia, Iran, Venezuela – remain in effect, although some market participants express hopes for their easing. Some positive signals have emerged: the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro opens the possibility for potential normalization of the Venezuelan oil sector. Investors hope that with the change in political regime in Caracas, the USA will gradually ease sanctions and allow the return of significant volumes of Venezuelan oil to the market (the country's resources are among the largest in the world). This could potentially increase the supply of heavy oil and help stabilize prices for crude and oil products. For now, however, in the short term, Maduro's resignation has led to disruptions: Venezuela's exports fell by approximately 0.5 million barrels per day in January, significantly impacting Asian refineries that consume its oil.
Tensions remain high around Iran. Rumors about possible US or Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities stir the market: Iran is a key oil producer in OPEC, and any military actions could disrupt export terminals or deter shipping companies. Although a direct conflict has been avoided so far, the rhetoric has intensified, and traders are pricing in a certain premium in case of emergencies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has now entered its fourth year and continues to influence energy matters. Europe has effectively stopped receiving energy resources from Russia, restructuring its logistics to alternative sources, while Russia has redirected its oil and gas exports to Asia. However, the Russian industry faces new challenges: as mentioned, the expansion of US sanctions at the end of 2025 has complicated operations even with friendly buyers in Asia. Many of them prefer to wait for sanctions to ease or demand higher discounts for risk. Additionally, attacks on infrastructure have intensified – besides strikes on refineries, there are reports of attacks on oil depots and pipelines. As a result, according to industry monitoring, oil production in Russia in December and January began to decline slightly. While in 2025 Russia managed to restore production volumes (after the downturn in 2022–23), the beginning of 2026 has seen declines for two consecutive months. Analysts attribute this partly to the depletion of easier rerouting options and difficulties in maintaining fields under sanctions. Russian maritime oil exports remain consistently high in volume but require increasingly longer routes and a large fleet of "shadow" tankers at risk of heightened scrutiny.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor. Nevertheless, cautious optimism penetrates the market: some experts believe that the most acute phases of the energy standoff have already passed. Importing countries have adapted to new conditions, while exporters are seeking ways to circumvent restrictions. At the same time, diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation have yet to yield tangible results. Investors continue to closely monitor news from Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing. Any signals regarding potential negotiations or easing of sanctions could significantly influence market sentiment. Until then, politics will continue to introduce elements of volatility: whether new sanction packages, unexpected agreements, or conflicts flare-up – energy markets react immediately to such events with price fluctuations and reallocation of raw material flows.
Ultimately, it can be said that hopes for easing the sanctions standoff in 2026 remain just that – hopes – as the main restrictions persist, and market participants are learning to operate in a condition of geopolitical fragmentation. However, the moderate price stability of oil and gas achieved through OPEC+ efforts and market adaptation provides grounds for optimism that the industry will navigate the current period without upheavals unless major new crises arise.
Investments and Corporate News in the Industry
Investors in the energy sector are focused on both the high profitability of traditional oil and gas companies and substantial investments in energy transition projects. Below are some key events in the corporate sector and investments:
- Record profits for oil and gas companies: Major oil companies ended 2025 with high financial results. For instance, ExxonMobil's net profit for 2025 was $28.8 billion. Saudi Aramco consistently earns around $25–30 billion quarterly (in just Q3 2025 – $28 billion). These colossal revenues have allowed companies to continue large stock buyback programs and dividend payouts, as well as invest in new production projects. The oil and gas giants are investing in field development – from shale formations in the Permian Basin in the USA to deepwater projects off the coast of Brazil and gas in East Africa. At the same time, many are announcing investments in low-carbon directions (renewable energy, hydrogen, CO2 capture), although such investments currently represent a small share relative to core business.
- Deals and projects in renewable energy: There is a continuous influx of capital into "green" projects worldwide. Governments are entering into large agreements with investors: for example, Egypt signed contracts worth $1.8 billion in January for RES development. Plans include building a 1.7 GW solar power plant with a 4 GWh storage system in Upper Egypt (Scatec project) and establishing a factory by the Chinese firm Sungrow for manufacturing industrial batteries in the Suez economic zone. Egypt aims to elevate the share of renewable generation to 42% by 2030, and international partners are helping to approach this ambitious threshold. Such projects demonstrate high activity in developing markets.
- New technologies and startups: Innovative energy companies are also attracting financing. In addition to the aforementioned Italian nuclear startup Newcleo, projects in hydrogen and synthetic fuels are developing. For instance, the Chilean-American company HIF Global is advancing the construction of a green hydrogen and electro-fuel (methanol) production plant in Brazil costing $4 billion. Recently, management announced they optimized the project and significantly reduced capital costs – construction is divided into phases, each costing less than $1 billion. The project in the port of Açu (Brazil) aims to launch the first line by mid-2027, producing ~220,000 tons of "electromethanol" annually from hydrogen and captured CO2. Such initiatives attract the attention of automakers and airlines interested in new fuels.
- Mergers and acquisitions: Consolidation processes are taking place in the resource sector. In 2025, two substantial deals in the oil sector reshaped the landscape: American ExxonMobil and Chevron announced they were acquiring shale companies Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corp respectively, strengthening their positions in the USA. At the beginning of 2026, negotiations continued in related sectors – for example, a mega-merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore (valued at ~$200+ billion) was discussed, aiming to consolidate coal assets, but the parties ultimately abandoned merger plans. Major players seek to increase scale and synergy, but antitrust risks and integration challenges may hinder such mega-deals.
- Investment climate: Overall, investments in the energy sector remain high. According to BloombergNEF estimates, total global investments in energy transition (RES, electrical networks, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) in 2025 equalled investments in fossil energy for the first time. Banks and funds are reorienting strategies toward sustainable financing, although oil and gas will continue to attract significant capital for a long time. For investors, the key question now is finding a balance between traditional returns of oil and gas and promising "green" directions. Many are opting for a dual strategy: securing profits from high oil/gas prices while simultaneously investing in future renewable markets to not miss out on the next growth wave.
Corporate news in the industry also includes the publication of financial reports for the past year, staffing appointments, and technological breakthroughs. Amid profits, some companies are announcing dividend increases and share buybacks, pleasing shareholders. Concurrently, oil and gas companies, under societal pressure, are adopting new emissions reduction targets and investing in climate initiatives, trying to improve their image and positioning in a changing world. Thus, the energy business globally seeks to demonstrate resilience and flexibility: achieving record profits today while laying the foundation for success in a low-carbon economy tomorrow.
Expectations and Forecasts
As winter 2026 comes to a close, experts in the oil and gas sector are cautiously optimistic. The main scenario for the coming months is the maintenance of relative stability in hydrocarbon prices. Authorities and market participants have learned lessons from the upheaval of the early 2020s, creating response mechanisms: from strategic reserves and OPEC+ agreements to energy efficiency programs. Price forecasts from specialized agencies suggest a possible slight decline in oil quotations in the second half of 2026, if the supply surplus unfolds as planned (EIA expects Brent to gradually decrease to $55 per barrel by the end of the year). However, any serious disruptions – such as an escalation of conflict in the Middle East or hurricanes disrupting LNG facilities – could temporarily spike prices.
In the gas sector, much will depend on the course of summer: a mild summer and high LNG output will facilitate the task of filling storage, which may keep European gas prices in the average range of €25–30 per MWh. However, competitive battles with Asia for new LNG volumes and uncertainty regarding weather (for example, the risk of droughts affecting hydropower generation or early cold weather) add unpredictability. Nevertheless, if inventories are close to targets by autumn, Europe will enter the next winter more confidently than in previous years.
The active development of renewable energy will continue. It is likely that 2026 will be another record year for the commissioning of solar and wind capacities, especially in China, the USA (despite political obstacles – through initiatives of individual states), and the EU. The world may approach a situation where every second new power plant is RES. This will gradually change market structures: the demand for natural gas in electricity generation may grow more slowly, while coal demand may decrease faster than forecasts if RES construction surpasses plans. The market will also pay close attention to the development of energy storage technologies and hydrogen – breakthroughs in these areas could accelerate the energy transition.
On the political front, market participants will watch for potential negotiations and elections. In 2026, presidential elections are expected in several supplier countries, which could influence their energy policies. Any steps towards peaceful agreements or the easing of some sanctions could radically reshape trade flows – for example, the return of Iranian oil to the market or increased Venezuelan exports would change balances. Conversely, heightened sanctions or new conflicts (for instance, around Taiwan or other regions) could introduce new risks for critical raw material supplies.
Overall, investors and analysts are inclined to believe that 2026 will be marked by adaptation and resilience. Energy markets are no longer as chaotic as during the height of disturbances and show an ability to self-regulate. With prudent policy – from both governments and companies – the energy sector will continue to provide the global economy with the needed fuel and energy while gradually transforming internally under the influence of new technologies and evolving requirements.
