Global News of the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy as of January 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Renewable Energy, Coal, Electricity, Refineries, Raw Material Markets, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 concluded for the global fuel and energy complex against a backdrop of conflicting factors: oil prices decreased by nearly 20% over the year amid concerns of oversupply, while persistent geopolitical tensions support demand for "defensive" assets. This combination of factors creates an ambiguous environment for market participants and investors, compelling them to closely monitor the evolving situation. Experts believe that in 2026, the oil market may experience supply excess exerting downward pressure on prices. However, local factors—such as ongoing Western sanctions (including the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russia) and production disruptions (resulting from recent attacks on several refining capacities)—restrict exports and prevent prices from collapsing, particularly supporting high margins for diesel fuel.
Trends in the gas markets are changing even more rapidly: Europe is accelerating the reduction of pipeline gas supplies from Russia (transit through Ukraine has effectively ceased by the end of 2025) and plans to completely abandon Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Simultaneously, some Asian countries are adjusting their supply routes in response to trade disputes, reducing imports of American LNG due to imposed tariffs on energy carriers from the U.S. At the same time, global electricity demand continues to grow swiftly, spurred by a boom in data centers, advancements in artificial intelligence technologies, and widespread electrification of transport and utilities, which stimulates investment in renewable energy and energy storage systems. Additionally, a relatively mild winter in Europe at the beginning of the heating season helps to stabilize gas prices and ensure supply stability, alleviating potential market turmoil.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts forecast that in 2026, Brent crude oil will trade in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel. It is expected that total supply in the coming months will exceed global demand by about 3–4 million barrels per day, leading to an increase in commercial oil inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: The OPEC+ alliance refrains from increasing production and maintains existing production limits. The total volume of cuts under the agreement stands at around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global demand).
- Demand: The global economy as a whole shows steady growth, leading to further increases in global oil consumption by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Demand is expanding most actively in Asian countries and the Middle East, while in the U.S., shale oil production is beginning to decline gradually.
- Geopolitics: A potential peaceful resolution of the conflict around Ukraine could sharply alter the balance in the oil market. Lifting sanctions and the return of significant volumes of Russian oil to the global market would increase supply and intensify pressure on prices, while maintaining restrictions would continue to support prices at higher levels.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipeline Supplies: Exports of Russian natural gas via pipelines to Europe decreased by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the cessation of transit through Ukraine. Given that the EU intends to completely abandon imports of Russian gas by 2028, only a few alternative routes remain for supplies from Russia (mainly through Turkey).
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are sharply increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, compensating for the decline in pipeline supplies. Simultaneously, some Asian countries have reduced imports of American LNG due to imposed tariffs; however, demand for liquefied gas in China and India continues to grow as these economies seek to diversify fuel sources and strengthen energy security.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in the development of gas infrastructure and storage expansions to enhance its own energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to increase until 2035-2040, reaching approximately 620-650 billion cubic meters per year; this is stimulating further expansion of national gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Many countries are experiencing record growth in electricity consumption. In the U.S., annual electricity consumption could exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026, driven by a boom in data centers, the implementation of artificial intelligence, and active electrification of transport and utilities.
- Renewable Energy Share: The contribution of renewable energy sources to global generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation is expected to exceed 4.6 TW (about 80% of this volume will come from solar power plants). In the coming years, accelerated growth in generation based on wind and solar energy is anticipated, driven by government incentives and reduced technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The adoption of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) is rapidly gaining momentum. Chinese companies are leading in this regard—their exports of lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage rose by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage technologies are also expanding and are projected to exceed $60 billion by the end of the current year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion tons by the end of 2025 (0.5% more than the previous year) and is expected to gradually decline by the end of the decade. This will be driven by the active growth of capacities in renewable, nuclear, and gas energy, gradually displacing coal from the energy balance.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to anomalously heavy rains and record hydroelectric generation, while in the U.S., coal usage has risen amid increasing natural gas prices. China—the world's largest coal consumer (with consumption approximately 30% higher than the combined total of other countries)—stabilized consumption in 2025, but it is expected that by the 2030s, coal's share in China's energy balance will begin to decline.
- Environmental Factors: Governments continue to seek a balance between climate goals and energy security. Despite stringent regulation focused on decarbonization, the coal industry remains an important part of the energy supply in several regions, creating uncertainty for investors and complicating strategic planning in the energy sector.
Refining and Petroleum Products
- Diesel Deficit: In 2025, the diesel refining margin in Europe increased by approximately 30%, despite a decrease in oil prices. This situation is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU's embargo on petroleum products from Russian oil. The limited supply of diesel fractions supports high price spreads for petroleum products.
- New Capacities: The launch of large new refineries in developed countries is not expected in the coming years, therefore, a structural deficit persists in the petroleum products market. Many analysts believe that exceptionally high refining margins will remain until additional oil refining capacities are brought online.
- Venezuela: The Venezuelan oil company PDVSA is forced to stockpile heavy oil residues in tanks due to U.S. sanctions still restricting the export of Venezuelan fuel oil and other fuels. This exacerbates the deficit of marine (bunker) fuel in the global market, particularly affecting countries dependent on supplies from Venezuela.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major oil and gas companies continue to execute large agreements for project development. For example, the Italian company Saipem secured a contract worth $425 million for the development of the largest gas field Sakarya in Turkey. The British independent company Harbour Energy has become the operator of the Mexican oil field Zama (with a resource base of about 750 million barrels) and simultaneously signed deals amounting to $3.2 billion for project development in the Gulf of Mexico, significantly strengthening its position in the region.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control over the assets of the company LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico. These deals allowed Harbour to become the operator of two of the largest independent oil and gas projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulatory authorities continue to impact the industry. In Serbia, the refinery owned by NIS (controlled by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary license from OFAC allowing it to maintain operational activities until January 23, 2026. This step enabled the facility to resume operations after being forced to halt due to U.S. sanctions, though the future of the license remains uncertain.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Market Trends: The dynamics of stock indexes of energy sector companies generally reflect the situation in the raw material markets. At the end of 2025, key stock indices in the Middle East declined following the drop in oil prices (for example, the main index in Saudi Arabia fell by approximately 1%), while stocks of the largest global oil and gas corporations showed moderate decline.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank decisions directly affect the investment climate. For example, in Egypt, a reduction in the baseline interest rate by 100 bps at the end of the year prompted a rise in the national stock index of approximately 0.9%, stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures to ease monetary policy are being discussed in other emerging economies, which in the long term could create more favorable conditions for companies in the fuel and energy sector.
