Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Monday, January 5, 2026 PMI, ISM USA, Inflation Turkey

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 5, 2026: Japan's PMI, China's Caixin PMI, Turkey's CPI Inflation, and the ISM Manufacturing Index in the US, with No Major Corporate Reports in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the start of the new year in global markets with a series of important macroeconomic releases. In Asia, purchasing managers' indices (PMI) will be released for Japan and China, setting the tone for the regional industrial and service sectors. In Europe, the focus will be on Turkey's inflation levels and investor sentiment in the Eurozone, while in the US, the key benchmark for the day will be the ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The corporate agenda for January 5 is relatively quiet: the earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet begun, so no major releases from companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX are expected. Investors will need to connect the economic signals received—from Asian demand and commodity prices to Federal Reserve rate expectations—to assess the overall market sentiment at the beginning of 2026.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 03:30 — Japan: Manufacturing PMI (December, final).
2. 04:45 — China: Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (December).
3. 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
4. 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence Index (January).
5. 17:45 — US: Final Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global (December).
6. 18:00 — US: ISM Manufacturing Activity Index (December).

Asia: PMIs in Japan and China

Business activity in Asia will kick off the year with December PMI estimates. The final Japan Manufacturing PMI, according to preliminary data, remains below the 50-point threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects ongoing weakness in external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilization in domestic demand.

• Japanese Manufacturing PMI – values below 50 signal a contraction in output. A rise in PMI closer to 50 indicates a weakening of the downturn and may provide support for Japanese industrial company stocks and adjacent markets.
• China's Caixin Services PMI – expected to be slightly above 50 (previous value around 52), indicating continued growth in China's service sector. A slowdown in this indicator compared to the previous month (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while stable values will support optimism about demand in China. The Composite PMI for China will combine trends from manufacturing and services, offering a broad view of the economy.

The PMI data from Asia will signal to investors how the largest economies in the region wrapped up the year: improving metrics could support commodity markets and currencies of emerging markets, while negative surprises may heighten concerns regarding global demand slowdown.

Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics

The year-on-year inflation in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators of the day for EM markets. Consumer price growth is expected to slow to around 30–32% y/y (down from ~31% in November), marking the lowest level in several years. This deceleration is attributed to the tightening of monetary policy by the new leadership of the Central Bank of Turkey in the second half of 2025.

• Slowing CPI – continued disinflation will confirm the effectiveness of recent sharp interest rate hikes (CBRT rate was raised to double-digit levels). Easing price pressures will bolster expectations that the regulator may transition to a more accommodating policy in 2026, which is positive for Turkish bonds and stocks.
• Inflation Structure – investors will examine which components contribute to disinflation. Slowing price growth in food and energy will alleviate socio-economic pressure, while a decrease in core inflation (excluding volatile components) indicates a sustainable improvement in the situation.
• Market Reaction – special attention to the Turkish lira and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data may strengthen the lira and support Turkish bank and corporate stocks (on expectations of rate cuts), while an unexpected surge in inflation could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets due to concerns about further policy tightening.

Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment

In Europe, there are few direct major macro statistics releases on Monday; however, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone for January will be released. This leading indicator reflects financial participants' mood about the Eurozone economy. Last month's value of Sentix was −6.2 (against the backdrop of decreasing energy prices and hopes for a soft landing of the economy).

• Sentix Expectations – the forecast suggests minor improvements in sentiment, with a potential rise in the index to around −5…−4. Although the indicator remains in negative territory (indicating a predominance of pessimists), its rise signals a partial restoration of investors' confidence in the stability of the Eurozone economy.
• Impact on EU Markets – a moderately positive Sentix may support European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the beginning of the year, especially sectors sensitive to the cycle (banks, industry). Conversely, a weak index will heighten defensive sentiment, increasing interest in German bonds and stable "defensive" stocks.

Overall, Sentix will set the tone ahead of more significant data releases in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation estimates in key countries). Investors from the CIS countries focused on the European market will consider Sentix as a barometer of the overall market atmosphere in the EU.

US: ISM Index and the Manufacturing Sector

The US will release the ISM Manufacturing Activity Index for December—one of the first significant indicators of the state of the US economy in the new year. The Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to be in the range of 47–49 points (November: 48.2), likely continuing to indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector (values below 50 mean contraction). However, markets will be looking for signs of a change in dynamics in the report—a potential approach to a turning point or a deepening of the downturn.

• New Orders and Production – key components of ISM. Last month, the New Orders Index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If December shows an increase in new orders closer to 50, this will be the first sign of industrial revival. A decline would indicate continued soft demand, particularly from exports.
• Prices and Inventories – the Prices Paid subindex will show producer cost behavior. Slowing price growth of raw materials and components indicates diminished inflationary pressure in manufacturing, which is positive for company margins. Data on warehouses and backlogs (Backlog) will provide insight into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of demand recovery.
• US Market Reaction – for investors, the ISM index will be an indicator of sentiment in the industrial sector, potentially impacting the dynamics of Wall Street indices. A stronger-than-expected PMI (closer to 50) could support cyclic stocks (industrial, materials) and simultaneously boost US Treasury yields (amid lowered expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts). Conversely, disappointing index data might invigorate discussions about potential stimulus or rate cuts—this could weaken the US dollar and cause gold prices to rise on expectations of soft policy.

It is worth noting that the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US will also be released alongside ISM for December; however, it has less influence as preliminary figures are already known. Investors will primarily focus on the ISM report and subsequent market reactions—from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.

Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Absence of Major Quarterly Reports: None of the companies in the main indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) are releasing financial reports on January 5. The earning season for Q4 2025 has not yet begun, so investors are temporarily shifting their focus to macroeconomic data.
• US Automakers – sales data for December and the entire year 2025 is expected from leading car manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.). While these figures are not traditional profit reports, they will provide insight into the demand in the US automotive market at year-end, especially for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales may support stocks in the automotive sector.
• Chinese EV Manufacturers – major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) traditionally release December delivery data in early January. High growth rates in EV sales in China at year-end will underscore ongoing demand for EVs and may positively reflect on the stocks of these companies on the stock market (as well as on related markets, such as battery manufacturers).
• Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) – the Taiwanese tech giant and key electronics manufacturer (iPhone assembler) will release its monthly revenue report. The report for December is expected on January 5: investors will look for the strength of year-on-year revenue growth amid the holiday season. Hon Hai's figures serve as a barometer for global demand for electronics and gadgets: strong December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics producers, while weak data could temporarily dampen appetite for stocks in the sector.

Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• After the closure of American exchanges on January 5, no major public companies in the US are scheduled to release their financial results. Investors will use this pause before the earnings season begins to analyze macroeconomic signals and prepare for a surge of corporate news that will intensify from the second week of January.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• 1) PMIs in Asia: Data on Japan and China's business activity will serve as an early indicator of global industrial health. Improved PMI figures will support commodities and currencies of emerging markets, while weak data will heighten concerns regarding demand for raw materials and exports from Asian countries.
• 2) Inflation in Turkey: Continued disinflation (CPI decrease) will strengthen confidence in Turkish authorities' economic policy and may lead to rising prices for Turkish bonds and stocks. However, an unexpected inflation spike could result in volatility—weakening the lira and causing investors to reassess risks in the Turkish market.
• 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (US): This report could set the direction for US and global markets. If ISM exceeds expectations, investors are likely to revise their rate forecasts (toward a more "hawkish" Fed), which would be reflected in rising bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. In the event of disappointing PMI data, expectations of policy easing might rise—potentially leading to dollar correction and increased interest in defensive assets (gold, bonds).

In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 presents investors with a comprehensive overview of economic trends—from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will influence the degree of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, moderately positive data could fuel market momentum in the early part of the year, while negative surprises will compel participants to adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting further signals from upcoming reports and statistics.