Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, January 5, 2026: oil, gas, electricity, renewables, coal, oil products, geopolitics, and key trends in the global energy market.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 5, 2026, capture attention with a combination of increased geopolitical tension and persistent market stability. The focus is on the consequences of the sharp escalation of the situation in Venezuela following a U.S. military operation that led to a change of government in the country. This event has introduced new uncertainty into the oil market, although the OPEC+ group continues to adhere to its previous production strategy without increasing quotas. This means that global oil supply remains excess, with Brent prices holding around $60 per barrel (nearly 20% lower than a year earlier, marking the steepest decline since 2020). The European gas market demonstrates relative resilience: even at the peak of winter, gas storage levels in the EU remain high, and record volumes of LNG imports ensure moderate gas prices. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources in 2025, and investments in clean energy are rising. However, geopolitical factors continue to inject volatility: sanctions against energy exports remain unrelenting, and new conflicts (like in Latin America) abruptly alter the balance of power in the markets. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Stays Course, Geopolitics Amplifies Volatility
- OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting of 2026, key countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to keep oil production unchanged, confirming the previously announced pause in increasing quotas for the first quarter. In 2025, participants in the deal collectively increased production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (around 3% of global demand), but the sharp price declines in the autumn prompted caution. The maintenance of restrictions is aimed at preventing further price collapse—though the potential for price rises remains limited, given that the global market is well-supplied with oil.
- Surplus Supply: According to industry analysts, global oil supply may exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day in 2026. High outputs in OPEC+ countries, alongside record production from the U.S., Brazil, and Canada, have led to significant stock accumulations. Oil is being stored both in land reserves and in the tanker fleet, which is transporting record volumes of crude—this all points to market saturation. As a result, Brent and WTI prices have settled in a narrow range of around ~$60 per barrel by the end of last year.
- Demand Factors: The global economy shows moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected in 2026—primarily driven by countries in Asia and the Middle East, where industry and transport continue to expand. However, the slowdown in the European economy and the tight monetary policy in the U.S. are restraining fuel demand growth. A specific role is played by China: in 2025, Beijing took advantage of low prices and actively increased its strategic oil reserves, acting as a kind of “buffer” for the market. However, in the new year, China's capacity to fill reserves further is limited, so its import policies will be a decisive factor in the balance of the oil market.
- Geopolitics and Prices: Key uncertainties for the oil market remain geopolitical events. Prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine are still unclear, hence sanctions against Russian oil exports remain in place and will continue to impact trade. The new crisis in Latin America—a U.S. force operation against the Venezuelan government—has reminded the market that political factors can abruptly curtail supply. Against this backdrop, investors are building in a heightened “risk premium” into oil prices. In the early days of 2026, Brent prices began to rise gradually from ~$60. Experts do not rule out a short-term price increase to $65–70 per barrel if the crisis in Venezuela extends or escalates. Nonetheless, the general consensus for the year implies continued oil surplus, which will restrain price growth in the medium term.
Gas Market: Stable Supply and Price Comfort
- European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high natural gas reserves. By early January, underground storage in Europe was over 60% full, which is only slightly below last year's record levels. A mild start to winter and energy-saving measures have led to moderate withdrawal from gas storage, ensuring a solid supply for the remaining cold months. These factors are calming the market: wholesale gas prices are remaining in the ~$9–10 per million BTU range (about €28–30 per MWh according to the TTF index)—significantly lower than peaks seen during the 2022 crisis.
- LNG's Role: To compensate for a sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipeline to Europe had fallen by over 40%), European countries significantly increased liquefied natural gas imports. By the end of 2025, LNG imports to the EU rose by approximately 25%, primarily due to supplies from the U.S. and Qatar, as well as the launch of new regasification terminals. The steady influx of LNG has helped to mitigate the effects of reduced Russian gas supplies and diversify sources, enhancing Europe’s energy security.
- Asian Factor: The balance in the global gas market also depends on demand from Asia. In 2025, China and India increased gas imports, supporting their industry and energy sectors. However, trade frictions adjusted the dynamics: for instance, Beijing reduced purchases of American LNG, imposing additional tariffs, and redirected its attention to other suppliers. If Asian economies accelerate their growth in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes may intensify, creating upward pressure on prices. However, currently, the situation is balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect relative stability in the global gas market to persist.
- EU Strategy: The European Union intends to consolidate progress in reducing reliance on Russian gas and decrease dependency on a single supplier. Brussels' objective is to completely cease gas imports from Russia by 2028. This will involve further expansion of LNG infrastructure (new terminals, tanker fleets), development of alternative pipeline routes, and growth in domestic production and biogas generation. Concurrently, discussions are underway in the EU to extend requirements for filling gas storage for the following years (at least 90% capacity by October 1 of each year). These measures aim to ensure a buffer in case of abnormally cold winters and reduce market volatility in the future.
International Politics: Escalation of Conflicts and Sanction Risks
- Venezuelan Crisis: The year began with an unprecedented event: the U.S. conducted a military operation against the Venezuelan government. As a result, special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, who has been charged with drug trafficking and corruption in the U.S. Washington stated that Maduro has been removed from office, with temporary governance transferring to forces supported by the U.S. Simultaneously, U.S. authorities tightened oil sanctions: since December, a de facto naval blockade of Venezuela has been in effect, with the U.S. Navy intercepting several tankers of Venezuelan oil. These actions have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela: estimates indicate that in December, it fell to approximately 0.5 million barrels per day (down from an average of around 1 million barrels per day in the autumn). Domestic production continues for now, but the political crisis creates high uncertainty for future supplies. Markets are responding with price increases and a reconfiguration of trade routes: while Venezuela's share in global exports is small, the U.S. actions signal to all importers the risks of violating sanction regimes.
- Russian Energy Resources: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding possible easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas has not yielded results so far. The U.S. and EU have extended existing sanctions and price ceilings, linking their removal to progress in resolving the situation in Ukraine. Moreover, the U.S. administration signals its readiness to impose new measures: additional sanctions against companies from China and India that assist in transporting or acquiring Russian oil bypassing established limits are under discussion. These signals maintain an element of uncertainty in the market: for example, in the tanker sector, the cost of freight and insurance for cargoes with dubious provenance is rising. Despite the sanctions, Russian oil and oil products exports remain at a relatively high level due to a pivot towards Asia, although trade is conducted with larger discounts and logistics costs.
- Conflicts and Security of Supply: Military and political conflicts continue to impact global energy markets. Tensions remain in the Black Sea region: in late December, strikes on port infrastructure were reported, linked to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine. Thus far, this has not led to significant disruptions in oil or grain exports through maritime corridors, but the risk to trade routes remains elevated. In the Middle East, the situation in Yemen has intensified: disagreements between key OPEC participants, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have manifested through conflicts involving their allies in Yemen. Although these frictions do not currently hinder cooperation within OPEC+, analysts do not rule out that escalations may threaten the alliance's unity. An additional risk factor emerged from recent U.S. statements regarding Iran: with protests continuing in Iran, Washington has threatened strikes against the country, which theoretically could endanger oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Collectively, geopolitical instability creates a constant risk premium in the market and compels market participants to develop contingency plans for supply disruptions.
Asia: India's and China's Strategy in the Face of Energy Challenges
- India's Import Policy: Faced with tightening sanctions and geopolitical pressure, India is forced to navigate between the expectations of Western partners and its own energy needs. New Delhi has not formally joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal under favorable terms. Russian supplies accounted for over 20% of India's oil imports in 2025, and the country considers it impossible to abandon them sharply. However, by the end of 2025, Indian refineries slightly reduced crude purchases from Russia due to banking and logistics constraints: according to traders, in December, shipments of Russian oil to India dropped to around 1.2 million barrels per day—its lowest level in two years (down from a record ~1.8 million barrels per day the previous month). Seeking to avoid shortages, India's largest oil refining company, Indian Oil, activated an option for additional volumes of oil supplies from Colombia and is negotiating with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Concurrently, India is negotiating special conditions for itself: Russian companies are offering Indian buyers Urals oil at a discount of ~$4–5 to Brent prices, making these barrels competitive even considering sanction risks. In the long term, India is aiming to increase its own oil production: state-owned ONGC is developing deepwater fields in the Andaman Sea, and initial drilling results are promising. However, despite efforts to increase domestic production, the country will remain dependent on imports for more than 85% of its oil consumption in the coming years.
- China's Energy Security: Asia's largest economy continues to balance between increasing domestic production and expanding energy resource imports. Beijing has not joined the sanctions against Russia and seized the opportunity to increase purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China's oil imports approached record levels, reaching around 11 million barrels per day (slightly below the historical peak in 2023). Gas imports—both liquefied and pipeline—are also maintaining high levels, providing fuel for industry and thermal energy during the economic recovery phase. Concurrently, China is annually increasing its hydrocarbon production: in 2025, domestic oil production rose to a historical maximum of ~215 million tons (≈4.3 million barrels per day, +1% year-on-year), and natural gas output exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5-6% year-on-year). Although the increase in domestic production has helped partially meet demand, China still imports about 70% of its oil consumption and around 40% of its gas. Aiming to enhance energy security, Chinese authorities are investing in the development of new fields, enhanced oil recovery technologies, and expanding capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build its oil reserve volumes, creating a "safety cushion" in case of market disruptions. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—are flexibly adapting to the new conditions by combining import diversification with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewables Hit Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
- Growth of Renewable Generation: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the U.S., the share of renewables in electricity generation surpassed 30% for the first time, with combined generation from solar and wind exceeding that of coal-fired power plants for the first time. China continues to hold its status as the world leader in installed renewable capacity and introduced record volumes of new solar and wind plants last year. Governments across numerous countries are ramping up investments in green energy, grid modernization, and energy storage systems, striving to meet climate goals and take advantage of falling technology costs.
- Integration Challenges: The rapid growth of renewable energy brings not only benefits but also new challenges. The primary issue is ensuring the stability of the energy systems as the share of variable resources (solar and wind generation) increases. The experiences of 2025 highlighted the need for backup capacity: power plants capable of quickly covering load peaks or compensating for declines in renewable generation during unfavorable weather conditions. Despite large-scale construction of renewables, China and India continue to bring modern coal and gas power plants into operation to satisfy the rapidly growing demand for electricity and prevent capacity shortages. Thus, at this stage of the energy transition, traditional generation still plays a crucial role in ensuring reliable electricity supply. Further safe increases in the share of renewables require breakthroughs in the fields of energy storage and digital grid management to integrate even more renewable capacities without the threat of disruptions.
Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amid Green Transition
- Historical Peaks: Despite the global focus on decarbonization, global coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, consumption exceeded the previous maximum set a year earlier, primarily due to increased coal burning in Asia. China and India, responsible for two-thirds of global coal consumption, have ramped up electricity generation from coal plants to offset fluctuations in renewable generation and meet rising demand. At the same time, several developed countries continued to reduce coal use, but a global decline has yet to occur. Sustained high demand for coal highlights the complexities of the energy transition: developing economies are still not ready to abandon cheap and accessible coal, which ensures basic stability in energy supply.
- Outlook and Transitional Period: Global demand for coal is expected to start noticeably declining only by the end of the current decade—as larger renewable capacities are deployed, nuclear energy expands, and gas generation increases. However, the transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption could occur due to weather anomalies (for example, droughts reducing hydroelectric generation or harsh winters increasing heating needs). Governments are forced to balance their emissions reduction goals with the necessity of ensuring energy security and acceptable prices. Many Asian countries are investing in cleaner coal combustion technologies and carbon capture systems while gradually shifting investments towards renewable sources. The coal sector is expected to maintain relative resilience in the coming years before declining in the 2030s.
Oil Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortages and New Restrictions
- Diesel Paradox: A paradoxical situation developed in the global oil products market by the end of 2025: while oil prices were falling, refining margins—especially on diesel fuel production—rose sharply. In Europe, diesel production profitability increased by approximately 30% over the year, as demand for diesel remained high while supply was limited. The reasons include the recovery of active transportation and industry following the pandemic, reductions in refinery capacities over the past years, and a reconfiguration of trade flows due to sanctions. The European embargo on Russian oil products forced the EU to import diesel from more distant regions (Middle East, Asia) at higher prices, while localized fuel shortages were observed in some other countries. As a result, wholesale prices for diesel and jet fuel remained high at the end of the year, with retail prices in several regions rising faster than inflation.
- Market and Outlook: Analysts expect that high margins in the diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline segments will persist, at least in the coming months—until new refining capacities come online or demand starts to significantly decline due to the transition to electric transport and other types of energy. In 2026–2027, the commissioning of a number of large refineries in the Middle East and Asia is anticipated to partially alleviate the fuel deficit in the global market. At the same time, stricter environmental regulations in Europe and North America (for instance, requirements on sulfur content and increased excise duties on traditional types of fuels) could curb long-term demand growth for oil products. Thus, the oil products market enters 2026 with a maintained tense balance: supply lags behind demand in certain segments, and any unplanned reductions in fuel output (for example, due to refinery outages or sanctions) could lead to sharp price spikes.
Russian Fuel Market: Continuation of Stabilization Measures
- Export Restrictions: To prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending the emergency measures implemented in the autumn of 2025. The government confirmed that the ban on the export of petrol and diesel will remain in effect at least until February 28, 2026. Experts estimate that this measure retains an additional 200,000–300,000 tons of fuel monthly in the domestic market, which had previously been destined for export. This has increased supply at fuel stations and helped avoid acute shortages of gasoline and diesel during peak winter consumption.
- Price Stability: The set of measures taken has helped to curb the rise in prices at fuel stations. In 2025, retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia increased by only a few percent, comparable to the general inflation rate. Authorities intend to continue a proactive policy to prevent price spikes and ensure uninterrupted supply of fuel to the economy. In anticipation of the spring fieldwork in 2026, the government continues to monitor the market and is ready to extend restrictions or introduce new support mechanisms as necessary to ensure the agrarian sector and other consumers are fully supplied with fuel at stable prices.
Financial Markets and Indicators: Energy Sector Reaction
- Stock Dynamics: Equity indexes of oil and gas companies at the end of 2025 reflected falling oil prices—shares of many oil extraction and refining corporations declined amid falling profits in the upstream segment. In Middle Eastern exchanges, which are sensitive to oil prices, a correction was noted: for instance, the Saudi Tadawul index fell by about 1% in December. Shares of leading international companies in the sector (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) also displayed moderate declines by the year-end. However, in the early days of 2026, the situation stabilized somewhat: the expected OPEC+ decision was already factored into market prices and viewed by investors as a factor of predictability. Against this backdrop, as well as rising prices due to the Venezuelan crisis, shares of many oil and gas companies switched to a neutral-positive trend. Should commodity prices continue to rise, oil and gas sector stocks may receive additional growth impetus.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank actions influence the energy sector indirectly, through demand dynamics and investment inflows. In several developing countries at the end of 2025, monetary policy was loosened: for example, the Central Bank of Egypt reduced the key interest rate by 100 bps, aiming to support the economy after a period of high inflation. Easing financial conditions stimulates business activity and domestic demand for energy resources—thus, the Egyptian stock index rose by 0.9% within a week after the rate cut. In the major economies of the world (U.S., EU, UK), interest rates remain high to combat inflation. Tight monetary conditions slightly cool economic growth and fuel consumption while making borrowed funds expensive for capital-intensive projects in energy. On the flip side, high yields in developed countries retain a portion of capital in the financial markets of these nations, limiting speculative investments in commodity assets and fostering price stability.
- Commodities Exporting Countries’ Currencies: The currencies of energy resource-exporting states demonstrate relative stability despite oil price volatility. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and currencies of Gulf states are supported by high export receipts. By the end of 2025, against a backdrop of cheaper oil, these currencies weakened only slightly, as many commodity-exporting countries draft budgets based on lower prices, and the presence of sovereign funds, along with strict currency pegs in the case of Saudi Arabia, smooth out fluctuations. Entering 2026 without signs of a currency crisis, commodity economies appear relatively robust, which positively affects the investment climate in the energy sector.
