Oil and Gas News and Energy – Wednesday, February 11, 2026: Sanction Pressure, Oil Rerouting, and Record LNG Imports
By early February 2026, the global energy market is facing contradictory factors. On one hand, the supply of oil and gas is starting to exceed demand, creating conditions for a surplus and keeping prices at moderate levels. On the other hand, persistent geopolitical tensions and sanction pressures are preventing oil prices from declining sharply. Western countries continue to tighten restrictions on the export of Russian hydrocarbons: new measures were introduced at the beginning of February, including a reduction of the price cap on Russian oil and additional bans on maritime transport.
Under external pressure, key importers such as India are cutting their purchases of Russian energy resources, redirecting demand to alternative suppliers. Oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68–69 per barrel) thanks to expectations of an oversupply. The European gas market is progressing through the winter without panic: despite rapid depletion of reserves, mild weather and record volumes of LNG imports are alleviating the situation. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—record capacities of clean energy are being introduced, although oil, gas, and coal still form the basis of the global energy balance. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the energy sector as of mid-February 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, global oil prices stabilized after a slight increase. The North Sea Brent is trading around $68–69 per barrel, while the American WTI is around $64–65. The oil market is balancing between an oversupply and geopolitical risks. Analysts predict a significant oil surplus in the first quarter of 2026—according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global supply could exceed demand by about 4 million barrels per day. However, various threats of supply disruptions are preventing prices from dropping much below current levels.
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. February saw the implementation of further sanctions: the EU and the UK have lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44 per barrel and expanded restrictions on tanker shipments of crude from Russia. The US has taken a tougher stance on Iran, not ruling out military measures against its oil infrastructure. The political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports from there. All these factors are raising the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the pressure from the oversupply.
- Restructuring of Export Flows. Major Asian buyers are adjusting oil imports under the influence of Western diplomatic pressure. India, which recently purchased over 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude, has begun sharply reducing these purchases. In January 2026, imports of Russian oil into India fell to ~1.2 million barrels/day—the lowest level in almost a year. According to US President Donald Trump, the new trade agreement with India implies a practical abandonment by Indian refineries of Russian oil purchases. Although New Delhi has not officially announced an embargo, major Indian companies have already ceased placing orders for Russian crude. As a result, Moscow is redirecting exports to other markets, primarily China, where refineries are eager to procure Russian oil at a discount, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Depleting European Stocks and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Gas reserves in the EU dropped to about 44% of total capacity by the end of January—the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (~58%). Nevertheless, the mild winter and high liquefied natural gas supplies allow for the avoidance of shortages and price shocks. Futures prices for gas (TTF index) are holding steady, reflecting market confidence in resource availability.
- Depletion of Stocks and Need for Replenishment. Winter withdrawals are leading to a rapid decline in fuel volumes in storage. If current trends persist, by the end of March, European UGS may be filled to only ~30%. To raise reserves to 80–90% before the next winter, the EU will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the interseason. Accomplishing this task will require a significant increase in purchases during the warm months—much of the current imports are immediately consumed. Replenishing underground reserves by autumn will be a serious challenge for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. The decrease in pipeline supplies to Europe is compensated by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, EU countries purchased about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion cubic meters. The increase in supplies is ensured by the expansion of global offerings: new LNG facilities in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries are increasing global output by about 7%. The European market is counting on successfully navigating the 2026/27 heating season due to high LNG purchases, especially since the EU aims to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027 (requiring the substitution of ~33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes).
Oil Products Market: Stabilization After Turbulence
- By early 2026, the global oil products market (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.) is showing a gradual normalization after a period of shortages. Fuel demand remains high due to the recovery of transportation and industry; however, the introduction of new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East has helped eliminate acute imbalances. Prices for gasoline and diesel have moved away from the peaks of 2022–2023, although local spikes are still possible (in cases of extreme cold or supply disruptions). Governments in many countries are implementing measures to mitigate price fluctuations—reducing taxes, selling fuel from reserves, or temporarily limiting exports. In particular, in Russia, after the fuel crisis of 2025, export restrictions on gasoline and diesel are still in effect, and a compensation mechanism for refineries is keeping domestic prices from spiking.
Electricity: Increasing Demand and Strengthening Infrastructure
- Global electricity consumption is steadily growing (over 3.5% annually according to IEA forecasts) against the backdrop of accelerated electrification of transport, economic digitalization, and more active use of air conditioning. Even in developed countries, after years of stagnation, demand is again on the rise. These trends require significant investments in energy networks and storage systems to maintain supply reliability. Many governments are launching programs to modernize and expand power grids and accelerate the construction of electric transmission lines. Concurrently, large battery farms are being built in several regions to smooth peak loads and integrate variable renewable generation. Energy companies are also strengthening cybersecurity and protecting networks from extreme weather to prevent outages in a climate where the economy's dependence on electricity is growing.
Renewable Energy: Record Achievements and Growth Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues at an accelerated pace. The year 2025 set a record for new renewable energy capacity installations (primarily solar and wind). According to the IEA, in 2025, the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation equaled that of coal for the first time (~30%). In 2026, green energy will continue its expansion. Global investments in the energy transition are breaking records: according to BloombergNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments in major economies are increasing support for eco-friendly technologies, seeing them as a driver of sustainable growth. The EU has tightened climate targets, requiring accelerated deployment of zero-carbon capacities and reforms of the emissions market. However, the rapid growth of the sector also carries specific challenges:
- Integration of Renewables into Energy Systems. The expanded share of solar and wind power plants imposes new demands on energy networks. The variable nature of renewable generation necessitates the development of backup power and energy storage systems for balancing—from fast reserve gas installations to large battery parks and pumped storage stations. The electrical grid infrastructure is also being modernized to transmit electricity from remote renewable sites to consumers. Active development in these areas will help contain CO2 emissions even with increased electricity demand—provided sufficient new low-carbon capacities are timely introduced.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Amid Western Withdrawal
- Despite global efforts towards decarbonization, coal consumption remains at historically high levels. In 2025, global demand reached ~8.85 billion tons (+0.5% year-on-year), and in 2026, it is expected to remain roughly at the same level. Growth is driven by developing economies in Asia (China, India, etc.), where coal continues to serve as a key fuel for electricity generation and industry. Concurrently, Western countries are rapidly phasing out coal-fired power plants and banning new projects, aiming to fully abandon coal by the 2030s. This situation provides high short-term returns for coal mining companies, but stricter climate policies and investor withdrawals limit the long-term prospects for the sector.
Outlook and Forecast
Overall, the global energy sector enters 2026 without sharp upheavals, although uncertainty remains. The oil market is likely to stay relatively balanced: the expected supply surplus is offset by geopolitical risks, preventing prices from falling significantly or soaring dramatically. The main intrigue of the gas sector will be Europe’s ability to replenish depleted gas reserves by next winter through increased LNG imports and alternative supplies. Energy companies and investors must navigate between capitalizing on sustained demand for traditional energy resources and investing in new technologies—from renewable generation to energy storage systems—to align with long-term energy transition trends.
