Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on January 24, 2026. US Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, Business Activity Indicators (IFO in Germany, Durable Goods Orders in the US), as well as Quarterly Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Saturday provides a respite for the markets, but investors are already gearing up for a busy business week ahead. The focus will be on the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the outcome of which will set the tone for bond yields and the value of the dollar. In Europe, the spotlight will shift to business climate indicators, with the IFO index for Germany scheduled for release on Monday, reflecting the sentiment of businesses in the region's largest economy. Concurrently, fresh data on durable goods orders in the US will signal the state of the industrial sector.
On the corporate front, earnings season continues: US industrial, financial, and technology firms are presenting their results for the fourth quarter, joined by European leaders in retail and transport, as well as select Asian corporations. It is crucial for investors to align macro and micro signals as a whole: central bank policies ↔ yields and currencies ↔ commodity prices ↔ corporate profit forecasts ↔ risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:30 — Germany: IFO Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 — US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
US Federal Reserve: Rate Decision Expectations
- The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week, and investors are looking for signals about the future trajectory of interest rates. If the Fed maintains the interest rate at current levels, attention will shift to the rhetoric in the statement and press conference: any hints of easing policy later in the year could support the stock market, whereas indications of a hawkish stance could exacerbate the rise in Treasury yields and increase pressure on high-risk assets.
- The key metric for the Fed remains core inflation in the US, the dynamics of which will determine the tone of the comments. A reduction in inflationary pressure will strengthen expectations for a pause or even a rate cut in the future, while persistently high inflation will compel the regulator to maintain a tight policy. The Fed's decision will directly impact the dollar's exchange rate and, through the “yields – dollar” link, the valuation of tech stocks and gold prices.
Bank of Canada: Signal for Global Rates
- The Bank of Canada will also announce its interest rate decision in the coming days. The regulator is expected to keep rates at their current levels, considering the stabilization of inflation and the slowing economy. However, investors will be watching the accompanying statement: a softer tone from the Bank of Canada could signal an impending rate-cutting cycle, setting a benchmark for other central banks in developed countries.
- The reaction of the Canadian dollar and the bond market to the meeting’s outcome is important not only locally but also globally. Sharp fluctuations in Canadian bond yields could reverberate through to the US and European markets via arbitrage. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's policy serves as a benchmark for several commodity currencies; a softer tone could support sentiments in emerging markets and oil prices.
US: Durable Goods Orders
- The December report on Durable Goods Orders will reveal whether industrial demand rebounded at the end of the year. Previously, the indicator declined amid volatility in the aviation sector; the new data release will provide insights into investment demand dynamics in US manufacturing.
- Particular attention is given to the component of orders excluding defense and aviation goods — the so-called core capital goods orders. An increase in this indicator will signal a revival of business investments, positively affecting the stock market and the industrial sector of the S&P 500. Conversely, if the statistics indicate a decline in orders once again, it could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown and influence expectations regarding the Fed's future actions.
Europe: IFO Index in Germany
- The IFO Business Climate Index — a leading indicator reflecting the sentiments of approximately 9,000 German companies. The January release will show how businesses assess the current state and prospects of the German economy at the start of the year. In previous months, the index has remained at subdued levels, indicating cautiousness among firms amidst high resource costs and weakened external demand.
- An improvement in the IFO value could signal that the European industrial downturn is reaching its bottom: positive expectations from German businesses would support the euro and the stocks of cyclical companies in the Euro Stoxx 50. Conversely, further deterioration of the indicator would heighten recession fears in Europe, strengthening defensive investor sentiment and interest in German government bonds as a “safe haven.”
Earnings: Pre-Market (BMO, US and Europe)
- Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) — Europe's largest low-cost airline. In focus: passenger traffic during the winter season and flight load forecasts for 2026. Improved financial results from the Irish airline may indicate a revival in tourist activity and bolster sentiments in the aviation sector.
- Bank of Hawaii (BOH) — a regional bank in the US. Key metrics: deposit inflow/outflow amidst interest rate changes, net interest margin (NIM), and loan portfolio quality. The results from BOH will provide a local snapshot of the banking sector's health: stable margins and low defaults will reassure investors, while decreased profitability or increased reserves for bad debts may reignite concerns about regional banks.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) — a steel production company (S&P 500). The focus is on steel delivery volumes and the price dynamics of metal products. Management’s comments on demand from the construction and automotive sectors will serve as a barometer of industrial activity. Strong results from STLD along with growth forecasts may support the entire metallurgical sector.
Earnings: Post-Market (AMC, US)
- Nucor Corp. (NUE) — the largest steel producer in the US. Important metrics: operational profitability in the context of fluctuating steel prices, factory capacity utilization, and capital expenditure forecasts. As an industry leader, Nucor sets the tone for the entire metallurgical sector: an optimistic report from the company will bolster confidence in industrial stocks, especially amid significant infrastructure projects in the US.
- SoFi Technologies (SOFI) — a fintech platform providing banking and investment services. Key for investors: growth in the customer base and loan issuance volume, as well as progress toward profitability. High revenue growth rates and decreased losses may heighten risk appetite in the fintech sector, while weak results would increase doubts about SoFi's business model's sustainability.
- W.R. Berkley (WRB) — a major player in the insurance market (property & casualty). Key points: claims payout levels, premium trends, and investment income from reserve placement. Insurance companies are sensitive to the interest rate cycle: increased investment income amid high rates may offset rising loss ratios. WRB's results will provide insights into the health of the insurance sector and corporate client sentiments.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: As of January 24, there are few major corporate reports in Europe, so macroeconomic expectations will set the tone for the markets. Investors are monitoring how the incoming data (IFO in Germany) and ECB monetary policy prospects will impact European stocks. The dynamics of the consumer sector and the luxury industry remain in focus: later in the week, LVMH will report, and the market will assess the state of demand for luxury goods.
- Nikkei 225 / Asia: In Japan, the earnings season for the third financial quarter is ongoing; results will soon be announced by several industrial and technology companies, including automakers and electronics manufacturers. In China, investors are preparing for the release of official PMI indices, expected at the end of January — this data will signal the recovery of the Chinese economy and may impact commodity markets and emerging market currencies.
- MOEX / Russia: In the Russian corporate segment, there are no significant reports during this period — the peak of annual reporting from the largest Russian companies traditionally occurs in March-April. Nonetheless, individual issuers are publishing operational indicators: for instance, retail chains may share preliminary sales data for the holidays, while oil and gas companies could provide statistics on production for 2025. These point releases may provide benchmarks for the local market, although global influence remains limited.
End of Day: What Investors Should Focus On
- Monetary Policy: Statements from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will be the key drivers for the week. Any surprises (e.g., a softer tone from the Fed or an unexpected move by the Bank of Canada) could provoke a reshuffling of rate expectations and, consequently, sharp movements in the bond and currency markets.
- Macroeconomic Data: The combination of US durable goods statistics and the European IFO index will set the starting stage for trading. Strong figures from both the US and Germany will enhance hopes for a “soft landing” of the global economy, while weak reports will fuel recession discussions. Market reactions to these indicators will demonstrate how data-oriented and sensitive investors are to economic signals.
- Corporate Reports: Attention is focused on the results of industrial giant Nucor and several financial companies. Successful reports could shift the focus from macroeconomic risks to corporate growth stories – particularly if firms not only exceed profit forecasts but also provide confident predictions for 2026. Conversely, disappointments in earnings reports will remind investors that high rates and costs are pressuring business margins.
- Risk Management: In anticipation of significant events, it is sensible to maintain caution. Investors should predefine volatility ranges within which they are willing to adjust positions. Using stop-loss orders, diversifying assets by currencies and sectors, and hedging key risks will aid in navigating a potentially turbulent week with lower losses.
