Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, January 24, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) on January 24, 2026, capture the attention of investors and market participants with their scale and conflicting trends. Geopolitical tensions remain high as the US and EU intensify sanctions pressure in the energy sector, leading to a further redistribution of global oil and gas flows. Simultaneously, a mixed picture is unfolding in global energy markets. Oil prices, after falling in 2025, have stabilized at moderate levels—with North Sea Brent around $63–65 per barrel and American WTI in the $59–61 range. This is significantly lower than levels a year ago (approximately $15–20 cheaper than in January 2025), reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and restrained demand. At the same time, the European gas market has faced severe winter cold, with a rapid withdrawal of fuel from underground storage facilities bringing reserves below 50% capacity, which caused prices to surge by about 30% since the beginning of the month. Nevertheless, the situation remains far from the energy crisis of 2022, as accumulated reserves and LNG inflows help meet increased demand, controlling price growth. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: many regions are recording new electricity generation records from renewable sources, although countries are still relying on traditional resources to ensure grid stability. In Russia, following last year's surge in fuel prices, authorities have extended emergency measures—including export restrictions and subsidies—into early 2026 to stabilize the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Holds Production Amid Oversupply Risks
Global oil prices are maintaining relative stability at comparatively low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. Currently, Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel and WTI in the range of $59–61. These current prices are 15–20% lower than a year ago, reflecting market saturation after the peaks of 2022–2023 and moderate demand. Several key factors are impacting oil price dynamics simultaneously:
- OPEC+ Policy: Fearing potential oversupply, the group of leading exporters is adopting a cautious strategy. In early January 2026, OPEC+ members confirmed the continuation of existing production limits at least until the end of the first quarter. Major countries (including Saudi Arabia and Russia) extended voluntary cuts, aiming to avoid market oversaturation amid seasonally low demand. This move reflects a desire to maintain price stability and represents a pivot away from the production increases seen a year earlier.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption growth remains modest. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that demand will increase by only ~0.9 million barrels per day in 2026 (compared to ~2.5 million barrels per day in 2023). OPEC predicts a growth of about +1.1 million barrels per day. Such conservative expectations are linked to the global economic slowdown and the effect of high prices from previous years, which stimulated energy conservation. Additional structural factors are at play, such as slower industrial growth in China and the saturation of post-pandemic demand.
- Rising Stocks and Non-OPEC Supplies: In 2025, global oil inventories significantly increased—analysts report that commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products rose by an average of 1–1.5 million barrels per day. This has resulted from active production increases outside OPEC, particularly in the US and Brazil. The American oil industry reached record production levels (around 13 million barrels per day), while Brazil increased supplies with the introduction of new offshore fields. This excess supply has created a "safety cushion" in the form of high reserves, which are exerting downward pressure on prices despite occasional disruptions (such as temporary export cuts from Kazakhstan or local conflicts in the Middle East).
The combined impact of these factors keeps the oil market in a state close to oversupply. Prices for Brent and WTI fluctuate within a narrow range, without receiving impetus for either a new rise or a deep fall. Several investment banks predict that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent in 2026 could drop into the $50 range. However, market participants continue to closely monitor geopolitical events—sanctions, situations in specific oil-producing countries—that could potentially alter the balance of supply and demand.
Gas Market: Europe Faces Cold, Prices Rise
The gas market is currently focused on Europe, which is undergoing a serious winter trial at the beginning of the year. By the start of the heating season, European countries had high stocks; underground gas storage facilities (UGS) were nearly 100% full by December 2025. However, the prolonged cold spell in January 2026 has led to a rapid depletion of these reserves – by the end of the month, the aggregate level of UGS filling in the EU dropped below 50%. Such a rapid gas withdrawal has not been seen for several years, and the market responded with rising prices. Futures at the TTF hub surged to ~€40/MWh (around $500 per thousand cubic meters), while they traded around €30/MWh in December.
Despite this significant spike, current gas prices remain several times lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis, when quotes exceeded €300/MWh. The European market is relatively resilient to demand shocks due to measures taken and external supplies. Amid the cold, a large volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to flow: LNG tankers are being redirected to Europe, offsetting the decreased fuel uptake from storage. At the same time, demand for gas has risen in other regions—North America and Asia—where abnormally cold weather is also observed. This has led to a global gas price rally: in the US, Henry Hub prices have reached their highest since 2022, while the Asian spot index JKM has risen to levels last seen at the end of last year. Nevertheless, thanks to established logistics and diversified sources, Europe is currently avoiding gas shortages: even with decreasing reserves, supplies continue from various countries (Norway, North Africa, Qatar, the US, and others), smoothing the impact of halting pipeline gas imports from Russia.
Experts note that after an extremely cold January, European storage facilities may end the winter with significantly lower levels than a year ago. This will create a new challenge for replenishing supplies ahead of the next heating season, potentially supporting prices. Meanwhile, the launch of several new LNG projects worldwide in 2026-2027 should increase supply and ease market pressures in the medium term. In the coming weeks, the situation in the gas market will depend on the weather: if February proves milder, price growth is likely to slow, and the remaining reserves will suffice without issues. Thus, even with the current winter stress, the European gas sector shows adaptability, navigating seasonal demand peaks without panic, albeit at slightly increased prices.
International Politics: Sanctions Pressure and Export Reorientation
Geopolitical factors continue to have a significant impact on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the West is not easing its sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector—in fact, new restrictive measures are being introduced. In December 2025, the European Union agreed on a plan for complete and permanent discontinuation of imports of Russian energy resources: in particular, pipeline gas purchases from Russia are to be reduced to zero by the end of 2026, and the EU also plans to gradually eliminate its dependence on Russian LNG. Moreover, the EU has imposed a ban on the import of oil products produced from Russian oil at foreign refineries—this measure aims to close loopholes through which Russian oil indirectly entered the European market in the form of gasoline or diesel processed in third countries.
The United States, for its part, is stiffening its rhetoric and preparing for further actions. The US administration is considering additional sanctions against several countries and companies helping Moscow circumvent existing restrictions. Washington is openly warning major purchasing countries (e.g., China and India) against increasing imports of Russian oil. Initiatives to impose high tariffs on goods from countries that actively trade in energy resources with Russia are advancing in Congress. Although these proposals are still being discussed, the mere fact of increasing pressure raises uncertainty in global oil and gas trade.
In response, Russia continues to reorient its export flows to friendly markets. Oil and LNG supplies to Asia remain high, with China, India, Turkey, and several other countries being the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons, benefiting from price discounts. Alternative currencies (yuan, rupee) and payment schemes that reduce dependence on the dollar and euro are increasingly used for settlements. Simultaneously, the Russian government has announced plans to develop its own tanker fleet and insurance mechanisms to minimize the impact of Western sanctions on oil export logistics. An important development has also been the partial normalization of relations between Russia and Venezuela and Iran: these oil-producing countries are coordinating their positions in the market, aiming to jointly resist US sanctions pressure.
Thus, geopolitical stand-offs continue to influence the energy landscape. Sanctions and countermeasures are shaping a new configuration of oil and gas flows: the share of supplies to the West is decreasing, while the Asia-Pacific region is gaining increasing importance. Investors are weighing risks: on one hand, further escalation of sanctions could lead to interruptions and price volatility; on the other, any hints of dialogue or compromise (e.g., renewal of export deals through intermediaries or humanitarian exceptions) could improve market sentiment. The prevailing scenario is currently one of continued Western hardline policies and the adaptation of exporters to new realities, already factored into prices and forecasts.
Asia: India and China Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi is striving to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports while maneuvering under external pressure. Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, India has sharply increased purchases of affordable Russian oil, ensuring the domestic market is supplied with cheap raw materials. However, in 2025, facing the threat of Western sanctions and tariffs, the Indian government has somewhat reduced Russia's share in oil imports, increasing supplies from the Middle East and other regions. At the same time, India is betting on developing its own resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Program for the Development of Deepwater Oil and Gas Fields. Within this initiative, the state company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells on the shelf, hoping to open new reserves. Simultaneously, the country is rapidly expanding renewable energy (solar and wind power plants) and infrastructure for imported LNG to diversify its energy mix. Nevertheless, oil and gas remain the foundation of India's fuel and energy balance, necessary for industrial and transportation operations. India must delicately balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risks of sanctions from the West.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to pursue energy self-sufficiency, combining increasing production of traditional resources with record investments in clean energy. In 2025, China brought domestic oil and coal production to historical highs, aiming to meet soaring demand and reduce import dependence. Simultaneously, the share of coal in China's electricity generation has fallen to a multi-year low (~55%), as vast new capacities of solar, wind, and hydroelectric plants are being brought online. Analysts estimate that, in the first half of 2025, China introduced more renewable generating capacity than the rest of the world combined. This has even allowed for a decrease in absolute fossil fuel consumption within the country. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains colossal: in 2025, oil and gas imports continued to be a key source of meeting demand, particularly in the transport, industry, and chemicals sectors. Beijing continues to actively conclude long-term contracts for LNG supplies and is also developing nuclear power, considering it an essential element of its energy balance. It is expected that in the new, 15th Five-Year Development Plan (2026-2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of non-carbon energy. At the same time, the authorities clearly intend to maintain sufficient backup capacity in traditional thermal power plants—the Chinese leadership will not allow energy shortages, considering the experience of power outages in the past decade. As a result, China is moving along two parallel paths: on one hand, it is accelerating the adoption of clean technologies for the future, while on the other, it supports a strong foundation of oil, gas, and coal, ensuring the stability of the energy system today.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, confirming its irreversibility. In 2025, new records for electricity generation from renewable sources were achieved worldwide. According to preliminary estimates from industry analysts, the total production from solar and wind for the first time exceeded the total electricity generation by all coal-fired power plants combined. This historic milestone was made possible by the explosive growth of renewable energy capacity: in 2025, global solar generation increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind generation grew by nearly 10%. The new "green" kilowatt-hours managed to cover a significant portion of the growth in global electricity demand, allowing several regions to reduce fossil fuel burning.
However, the rapid development of renewable energy comes with challenges. The main challenge is ensuring the reliability of energy systems using variable sources. During periods when demand growth exceeds the input of "green" capacity or when weather reduces generation (lulls, droughts, extreme cold), countries are forced to rely on traditional generation to balance the grid. For example, in 2025, economic recovery in the US led to a temporary increase in electricity generation at coal-fired power plants, as existing renewable energy was insufficient to cover all additional demand. In Europe, weak winds and reduced hydropower resources in the summer and autumn of 2025 forced a temporary increase in gas and coal burning to maintain energy supply. By winter 2026, severe cold in both North America and Eurasia caused surges in electricity consumption for heating—traditional gas and coal plants urgently increased generation to compensate for the decline in renewable energy production. These cases highlight that, while the share of solar and wind is volatile, coal, gas, and in some areas, nuclear capacities, play a role in providing insurance, covering peak loads, and preventing outages.
Energy companies and governments around the world are actively investing in solutions aimed at smoothing the variability of "green" generation. Industrial energy storage systems (large batteries, pumped-storage plants) are being built, electrical grids are being modernized, and intelligent demand management systems are being implemented. All of this enhances the flexibility and resilience of energy systems. Nevertheless, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid. The rapid growth of renewable energy continues alongside the significant roles of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power, which provide basic stability. Experts predict that it will only be by the end of this decade that the share of fossil resources in generation will begin to confidently decrease as massive new renewable capacities are brought online and climate initiatives are realized. For now, traditional and renewable sources are working in tandem, simultaneously ensuring decarbonization progress and uninterrupted energy supply for the economy.
Coal: Steady Demand Despite Climate Goals
The global coal market demonstrates how inert energy resource consumption can be. Despite active decarbonization efforts, coal use on the planet remains at record high levels. Preliminary data for 2025 indicates that global demand for coal rose by approximately 0.5% and reached about 8.85 billion tonnes—a historical maximum. The primary growth came from Asian countries. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants, although it has decreased in relative terms due to record increases in renewable energy, remains colossal in absolute volume. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of several new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to create a power reserve. India and Southeast Asian countries continue to actively burn coal to meet rising energy consumption, as in many of them, alternative generation cannot keep pace with economic growth.
After sharp price fluctuations in 2022, the coal market transitioned to relative stability in 2025. Prices for energy coal at major Asian hubs (e.g., Australian Newcastle) remained significantly lower than the peak values of the crisis period, although still somewhat above pre-crisis levels. This price environment encourages the largest producing countries to maintain high levels of coal production and export. Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—these leading exporters have increased supply in recent years, helping to meet high demand and prevent shortages in the market. International experts believe that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade and then begin to decline—due to strengthened climate policies and the replacement of coal generation with renewable energy. However, in the short term, coal continues to be a key part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base load generation and heat for industry, so until a comprehensive replacement arrives, coal-fired power plants continue to play an irreplaceable role in sustaining the economy.
Russian Oil Products Market: Continuation of Measures to Stabilize Prices
In the domestic fuel sector of Russia, a relative stabilization emerged by early 2026, achieved through unprecedented governmental measures. In August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country hit historical records, exceeding crisis levels from 2023. The reasons included a combination of high summer demand (peak transport and harvesting) and constrained fuel supply—unplanned repairs and accidents at several major oil refineries (including due to drone attacks) reduced gasoline output. Faced with a threat of shortages and price shocks for consumers, authorities quickly intervened in market mechanisms, launching an emergency normalization plan:
- Export Ban: In mid-August 2025, the Russian government imposed a complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel, covering all producers—from independent mini-refineries to major oil companies. This measure, which has been extended several times (most recently until the end of February 2026), has returned hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fuel back to the domestic market, which were previously being exported monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market saturated, strict restrictions began to be gradually eased. Major oil refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict state control, while for smaller traders and intermediaries, export barriers largely remained. Thus, the export channel was opened in a controlled manner to prevent a new spike in domestic prices. In fact, at the start of 2026, oil product exports from Russia remain partially limited—authorities are intentionally withholding fuel volumes in the domestic market to ensure saturation.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the steps taken was a tightening of control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were obliged to first meet domestic market needs and were prohibited from mutual stock exchange purchases between companies (previously, such transactions contributed to price surges). The government, in collaboration with relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS), developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing stock market intermediaries. This is intended to provide a more direct and fair way for fuel to reach retail gas stations and avoid speculative price increases.
- Subsidization and Price Dampeners: Financial instruments have been employed to control prices. The state has increased budget subsidies for oil refining enterprises and expanded the application of the dampening mechanism (reverse excise tax), which compensates companies for lost income when redirecting products to the domestic market instead of exporting. These payments encourage oil companies to send sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to Russian gas stations without fearing significant losses from missed export earnings.
The complex of these measures has already produced tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices for fuel have retreated from their peak values, and the growth in retail prices at gas stations has been moderate—over the entire year 2025, gasoline and diesel rose by an average of 5-6%, roughly in line with overall inflation. A domestic fuel shortage has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including remote rural areas during peak autumn harvesting, have been ensured a fuel supply. The Russian government has stated that it will continue to keep the situation under strict control. At the first signs of a new imbalance, fresh export restrictions or interventions from state reserves may be rapidly introduced. For participants in the FES market, such policies mean relative predictability in domestic prices, although exporters of oil products have to cope with partial limitations. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market reinforces confidence that even amid external challenges—sanctions and volatility in global prices—domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be kept within acceptable bounds, protecting consumer and economic interests.
