Jet Fuel Price Hits Historic High on Exchange

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Jet Fuel Price Hits Historic High on Exchange - Analysis and Forecasts
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The price of jet fuel at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange (Petersburg Exchange) has reached a new historical maximum, exceeding 120,000 RUB/ton. This is evidenced by the data from the exchange. As of the trading results on August 20, the price of aviation fuel stood at 121,864 RUB/ton. The previous maximum was recorded in early May at 90,401 RUB/ton. Since the beginning of the year, jet fuel has increased in price by 1.6 times.

The off-exchange price of jet fuel is also rising, according to the data from the Petersburg Exchange. On August 19 (the latest available data), the price of aviation fuel was 110,401 RUB/ton. Since the beginning of the week, the quote has increased by 8%, and since the beginning of the year, it has risen by 1.5 times. The maximum price level in off-exchange trading was recorded in early July at 117,337 RUB/ton.

Jet fuel prices in Russia began to rise in March of this year, along with wholesale prices for other types of petroleum products. The increase in fuel prices was due to a surge in exports against the backdrop of the armed conflict in the Middle East and the resultant rise in global prices. In the following months, another significant reason for the price increases was a reduction in oil refining in Russia due to attacks on oil refineries.

Price increases for gasoline and diesel fuel at the exchange halted at the end of July – early August after a series of measures were implemented. The government imposed a total ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, while oil companies increased the load at existing refineries to maximum levels, reduced the duration of current repairs, postponed planned repairs to a later date, and directed previously accumulated fuel reserves to the market. Furthermore, the import of petroleum products was expanded, and the production of fuel of a lower environmental class was increased. Additionally, in order to fill the domestic market, the government reduced the sales norm for gasoline on the exchange from 15% to 10% from July 1 to September 30, 2026.

The main regulatory measure in the jet fuel market was the introduction of an export ban on jet fuel effective June 1 until November 30, 2026. Exceptions were made for fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft en route, batches of jet fuel placed under customs procedures before the ban took effect, and volumes supplied under intergovernmental agreements.

The current price growth is attributed to the limited availability of jet fuel in the market caused by planned and unplanned repairs at refineries and the complications in the logistics of supply amid seasonal demand increases, says Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management. The number of Russian refineries producing jet fuel is fewer than those producing automotive gasoline and diesel fuel, points out Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. Due to the concentration of air traffic in the Moscow region, the temporary downtime of several refineries in Central Russia has a more significant impact on the jet fuel market than on the gasoline and diesel fuel markets, the expert notes. Moreover, expanding the supply of jet fuel through imports and lowering quality due to strict specifications is challenging, Baranov states.

Another reason for the price increase is the lack of transparency in statistics, explains Dmitry Prokofyev, Director of External Communications at NEFT Research. The absence of data on jet fuel production creates an information vacuum that heightens the nervousness of market participants, he asserts.

The Ministry of Energy reported on August 10 that jet fuel production this month is expected to be at the level of August 2025 and 4% higher than the level of July 2026. The ministry's announcement noted that the country's stocks of jet fuel were at a "standard level" at the beginning of August and that the entire volume of consumption would be satisfied through production. The Ministry of Energy did not specify the volumes of jet fuel production and reserves.

Until the completion of repairs at refineries, jet fuel prices may continue to rise, Prokofyev believes. Baranov suggests that a price decrease may be possible "closer to the middle of autumn," after the high-demand period has ended.

Experts believe that the government must implement new regulatory measures to quickly stabilize prices. The export ban on jet fuel is a necessary but insufficient measure in the context of declining oil refining, they contend. According to Prokofyev and Baranov, new measures could include adjustments to exchange rules and direct fuel supplies to end consumers. Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association, suggests that the government may introduce a series of regulatory measures as early as next week.

Tereshkin believes that importing jet fuel into Russia could be an effective measure. However, subsidies will be required to increase payments to airlines under the damping mechanism, he clarifies.

The impact of rising fuel prices on airline ticket costs will be limited, states Oleg Panteliev, Executive Director of Aviaport. According to him, prices are currently primarily determined by the balance of supply and demand. Several years ago, airlines were able to raise rates without significantly affecting sales volumes, but now they cannot pass additional costs onto passengers, the expert says. The damping mechanism will remain an important factor influencing the economics of airlines, Panteliev adds.

Source: Vedomosti
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