As of the morning of June 22, according to data from the information agency "RZD-Partner.RU," fuel sales regulation had been introduced in 53 out of 89 regions of Russia. Later that same day, the heads of the Saratov, Omsk, Voronezh, and Irkutsk regions announced similar restrictions.
On June 23, during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and members of the government, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the current situation in the fuel market is "indeed complicated, but controllable." "What has already been done today? First, a complete ban on exports of gasoline and aviation fuel has been imposed, and we are currently contemplating a complete ban on diesel fuel exports," said Novak.
Farmers requested the diesel export ban. They believe this would primarily help ensure internal market supplies and agricultural producers.
On May 20, Reuters reported that nearly all major oil refineries in central Russia, responsible for about a quarter of the country's refining capacity, had halted or reduced production due to drone attacks. At that time, authorities claimed that the domestic market for motor fuel remained stable and that the sector was prepared for a seasonal rise in demand.
By June 23, the number of regions reporting restrictions had reached 61, meaning it was already difficult to purchase gasoline in two-thirds of the country.
Chronicles of Restrictions
The first restrictions on fuel sales were implemented in Crimea. On May 30, head of the peninsula's administration, Sergey Aksyonov, announced that from May 31, AI-95 gasoline would be sold exclusively by coupon, while sales of AI-92 would be limited to 20 liters per vehicle. On May 31, Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev reported on the issuance of gasoline by coupon and the limits on sales.
On June 8, the Ministry of Energy acknowledged that some southern regions were facing temporary supply challenges due to increased drone attacks. To ensure the stable and effective operation of the national fuel and energy complex, the ministry formed a coordinating industry headquarters involving major oil companies, which has held several meetings since then.
On June 10, 15 gas stations in the Krasnodar region suspended fuel sales due to heightened demand, reported the regional operational headquarters citing the Ministry of Fuel and Energy and Housing and Utilities.
On June 13, the head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, discussed the introduction of temporary limits at several gas stations in the republic after a drone attack occurred the day before in Nizhnekamsk, where two major oil refineries are located — "Taneko," owned by "Tatneft," and the "TAIF-NK" refinery. On June 17, "Tatneft" lifted the restrictions imposed at its gas stations.
The number of news reports grew like a snowball. On June 15, Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev reported limited fuel issuance at some gas stations in the Samara region. On June 17, the Ministry of Energy, Industry, and Communications of the Stavropol region noted that a number of gas stations in the region had limited gasoline dispensing to 100 liters per vehicle. On June 21, the head of Crimea, Aksyonov announced a complete cessation of gasoline sales at Crimean gas stations to individuals and legal entities, except for state services.
On June 22, during another meeting of the coordination headquarters, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed relevant agencies to prepare a plan for maintaining the stability of the fuel market, while the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) was to continue monitoring the pricing situation in the sector and take prompt relevant actions if necessary.
On the same day, June 22, the FAS reported on its actions against speculators. Marketplaces, where fuel had already been banned for sale, were reported to have blocked attempts to resell gasoline. "There was no gasoline on our showcase and there isn’t any now. It’s not possible to create a profile; it will be blocked at the moderation stage," said an Ozon representative. A representative of RWB confirmed the same about the impossibility of selling fuel on Wildberries.
The FAS conducted unscheduled inspections of major oil traders to identify any collusion in exchange trading and initiated a case regarding a violation of competition law against three of them. The agency instructed regional offices to intensify price monitoring for fuel sales to agricultural producers.
On June 23, the "Neftmagistral" gas station network announced a price reduction for gasoline after FAS inspections. The company stated on social media that it had updated the prices for all types of fuel, reducing them by 15 rubles. AI-95 now costs 79.99 rubles per liter, AI-92 — 70.99 rubles, and diesel fuel — 84.99 rubles.
By the morning of June 23, at least four more governors announced limitations on fuel dispensing. As of June 23, restrictions on the sale of gasoline and diesel at gas stations had already been imposed in 61 regions of Russia out of 89.
Local authorities claim that the measures taken are aimed at reducing unjustified panic buying and potential speculation in the fuel market.
Price Increase
The fuel deficit is indirectly evidenced by the disparity between the growth in fuel prices on the exchange and at gas stations, which are under FAS's scrutiny — the wholesale prices are increasing faster. The prices for AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange rose by 3.6% from June 1 to June 23, from 68,200 to 70,638 rubles per ton, while AI-95 increased by 3.7%, from 75,459 to 78,241 rubles per ton. On January 12, the first trading day on the exchange this year, AI-92 was priced at 56,673 rubles per ton, 29% lower than on June 23, and AI-95 had risen by 33% from 59,003 rubles per ton. Also, diesel fuel prices surged the most, from 67,467 rubles per ton on June 1 to 73,689 rubles on June 23 (up 9.2%), and a jump of 37% from 53,914 rubles per ton at the beginning of the year.
According to the latest published data from Rosstat, average prices for automotive gasoline at gas stations in Russia rose by 2% from June 1 to June 15, reaching 65.41 rubles per liter for AI-92 and 71.11 rubles for AI-95. Since the start of the year, price increases for both types of gasoline amounted to 6.6%. Diesel fuel increased by 1.8% over two weeks in June and by 5.7% since the beginning of the year, reaching 80.78 rubles per liter.
As of June 23, prices at gas stations were already higher: at Moscow's "Lukoil" gas stations, AI-95 was priced between 72.39 and 73.87 rubles per liter, AI-92 was sold for as low as 65 rubles per liter, and diesel was priced at 78.88 rubles per liter. At "Rosneft," prices for AI-95 started at 71.15 rubles, while AI-92 ranged from 62.8 to 65.09 rubles per liter, and diesel was at 79.35 rubles per liter.
In addition to reduced fuel production due to unscheduled repairs at refineries, rising price expectations also influence pricing: consumers are uncertain about the availability of gasoline and diesel in the coming weeks and months, which accelerates price increases regardless of the actual production situation, said Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel marketplace Open Oil Market.
Is It a Real Crisis?
There are indeed local shortages, but except for the south of the country, they are predominantly driven by panic buying rather than supply disruptions, says Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the raw materials market analytics center at the Institute for Energy and Finance (IEF). The current quotas at some gas stations are often reasonable and designed to cool down panic demand, according to the expert. "If many drivers arrive at a gas station simultaneously wanting to fill their tanks, they will naturally deplete its storage and run out of gasoline, leading them to move to nearby stations and generate excess demand, which could ultimately cause local shortages," he reasons.
It is premature to declare a comprehensive fuel crisis across Russia, states Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global. However, there are local issues, some quite serious, he agrees. The hardest-hit areas currently are Crimea, Sevastopol, the south, and certain regions of the Volga and Central Russia, Chernov notes. If attacks on oil refineries continue, shortages in regions with complicated logistics may increase. Conversely, if damaged facilities are quickly restored and supplies from other regions, Belarus, and Asia help close the gaps, the market may gradually stabilize. However, significant price declines should not be expected, the expert warns.
"There will be no grounds for claiming that life will stop somewhere, and transport will cease operations," insists Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert from the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund. He suggests that certain regions, in addition to boosting external supplies, may seek solutions through raising fuel prices and, consequently, reducing demand. "In areas where drone attacks will be particularly active, rationing may be necessary, which is typical during wartime, disasters, and other extraordinary circumstances," adds Mitrakhovich.
Moscow Without Restrictions
According to local authorities, attacks on the Moscow oil refinery have not impacted the city's fuel supply. After the latest incident on June 18, the capital's urban management complex reported that the supply of petroleum products to Moscow and the functioning of all gas stations in the city are proceeding normally.
Nevertheless, queues and limits on gasoline dispensing persist in Moscow and the surrounding region, as Forbes correspondents have observed. For instance, at a "Lukoil" station on Bolshaya Cheryomushkinskaya Street, customers cannot purchase more than 30 liters, while at gas station 1116 in the Moscow region, the limit is 20 liters. The situation was worse at the end of last week when fuel prices were higher, and to fill up with diesel, a Forbes correspondent had to wait in line behind 17 cars. Some managed to find fuel only at the third gas station they visited.
The Moscow refinery fulfills a significant portion of the region's needs for gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and bitumen, points out Chernov from Freedom Global. Therefore, problems at this plant are not merely an accident at a single facility but a blow to one of the key sources of fuel for Moscow, he explains. According to the plant's owner, Gazprom Neft, the Moscow refinery provides over one-third of the fuel market in the capital region.
However, the situation in Moscow does not currently appear critical: major chains are operating, fuel is generally available, and authorities and oil companies will prioritize supply to the capital region, according to Chernov. He adds that some supplies to the capital can be redirected from other refineries: Yaroslavl ("Slavneft-YANOS"), Nizhny Novgorod ("Lukoil-Nizhny Novgorodnefteorgsintez," "Kirishinefteorgsintez," "Kinef"), as well as refineries in Tatarstan and the Volga region. "It's not just about the availability of fuel — it must also be transported: tankers, oil depots, railroad schedule adjustments, and available capacity at the plants themselves are needed. Thus, substitution is possible, but not instantly," he notes.
Moscow is likely to navigate the current situation without a full-fledged fuel crisis since it will receive priority supply, believes Chernov. However, prices will remain high, and local disruptions at certain gas stations are possible, he adds.
Currently, in terms of physical supply, a fuel crisis does not threaten the capital region, agrees Shevyrenkov from the IEF. The Moscow region could be supplied by at least two refineries besides the Moscow one — RNPK and "Slavneft-YANOS," and there’s potential for fuel supplies from underutilized capacities of Belarusian refineries. Although gasoline from Belarus will be more expensive, Shevyrenkov believes it is unlikely there will be no fuel at gas stations. "Currently, based on available information, it can be concluded that the damage to the Moscow refinery is not very significant," notes Shevyrenkov. "Several fuel storage tanks caught fire, and apparently, the combined primary processing unit was damaged. Fuel production at the plant may decrease, but experience shows that repairing such installations, with a few exceptions, takes from two weeks to a month. Therefore, barring further incidents, the plant may well resume fuel shipments as early as July."
Where to Source Fuel?
According to Reuters, drone attacks have forced Russia to start importing gasoline by sea, with unnamed sources reporting that the first shipment of fuel from an Asian country could arrive as soon as June.
The Reuters report about the potential import of gasoline from Asia seems plausible, although for Russia, this is an unusual situation — the country is a major exporter of oil and petroleum products, remarks Chernov from Freedom Global. "If fuel is in short supply in certain regions, a one-time purchase abroad becomes a reasonable solution," he believes. Theoretically, gasoline could come from India, where "Rosneft" has a stake in the Vadinar refinery, but because the supplier and import volumes are officially undisclosed, this cannot be asserted as fact, says Chernov.
The most likely source of supplies is China, which in recent years has been a leader not only in the commissioning of new refinery capacities but also in the adoption of electric vehicles, according to Chernov. More than half of new car sales in China are now electric and plug-in hybrids, which will result in gradually decreasing demand for gasoline in China, he reminds.
Belarusian gasoline supplies could increase from the current 60,000 tons per month to 200,000 tons or more — this amount would be more than sufficient to stabilize the Russian market, believes Shevyrenkov from the IEF. In his opinion, supplies from Asia are more likely a way to calm the market — fuel there is expensive, and its delivery to Russia is not very attractive from a commercial perspective, he states.
Chernov concurs. "Supplies from Asia won't systematically solve the issue," he claims. "Transporting gasoline by sea is lengthy and costly; it also needs to be distributed within the country. This is more of an emergency measure to patch a gap in the market than a new supply scheme."
Source: Forbes
