Currently, the Russian fuel market is experiencing a growing shortage of AI-95 gasoline. The reasons behind this include unplanned repairs at oil refineries, a decrease in primary processing, and seasonal increases in demand. According to market participants, refineries are forced to reallocate production in favor of the more socially significant AI-92. As demand for AI-95 rises ahead of the summer season, it is growing faster than supply, with over-the-counter volumes being sold at a premium of 10%. However, even at that price, sources tell Kommersant that purchasing fuel remains challenging.
As per a report from the National Exchange Price Agency, 32.64 thousand tons of gasoline were sold during trading on May 8, marking a 5.9% decrease compared to the previous trading day. Sales of AI-92 dropped by 8.9% to 20.34 thousand tons, while sales of AI-95 increased by 1.5% to 12.24 thousand tons. The volume of unsatisfied solvent demand stood at 23.46 thousand tons for AI-92 and 26.34 thousand tons for AI-95, according to the report.
A source within the industry told Kommersant that a shortage of AI-95 supply has already formed in advance of the high-demand season.
In the summer, demand for this type of fuel tends to increase more quickly than for AI-92, as consumers use vehicles specifically designed for 95-octane gasoline during the vacation season. The source attributes the shortage to unplanned repairs at major refineries and a general decrease in oil product production. In this situation, he noted, oil companies primarily direct resources to support their own distribution structures.
The chief analyst at "Proleum," Andrey Dyachenko, also highlights the lack of AI-95 volumes in the exchange channel. Current primary processing levels have significantly dropped compared to planned figures, forcing oil companies to choose which type of gasoline to maintain production for. However, he considers the situation to be "far from critical." According to his estimates, actual fuel throughput at gas stations is currently 7–10% lower than last year's levels, and existing reserves and operational capacities are still adequate to meet final demand.
The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has indicated that no complaints regarding gasoline shortages have been received and that there is no fuel deficit. Furthermore, the issue of gasoline shortages did not arise during the recent Exchange Committee meeting. The Ministry of Energy informed Kommersant that the situation in the domestic motor fuel market remains stable and manageable.
At present, the domestic market is sufficiently stocked with light oil products, logistics are functioning reliably, and no interruptions in regional supply have been recorded, they noted. "The industry is prepared to handle the seasonal demand growth in a planned manner, supported by measures taken by the government, including a ban on gasoline exports and ongoing restrictions on diesel fuel exports for non-producers," the ministry added.
Sources in the market point out a change in the structure of fuel consumption in Russia—a mass update of the vehicle fleet driven by Chinese models, which are sensitive to product quality, has led to a sharp increase in demand specifically for AI-95. According to the source, the notion of the "social significance" of AI-92 has become outdated, as AI-95 has emerged as the primary product. Its production and logistics have been complicated due to incidents at refineries ahead of the peak season. Additionally, the growth of domestic auto tourism during the May holiday period is exerting pressure on the market.
Exchange quotations remain relatively stable due to an existing mechanism that limits price increases and decreases to plus 0.01% and minus 3% from the current market price.
As of the results of trading on May 8, the price of AI-92 gasoline as per the index for the European part of Russia rose by 0.01% to 65.99 thousand rubles per ton, while AI-95 increased by 0.16% to 71.89 thousand rubles per ton. Meanwhile, the over-the-counter volumes are being sold at a premium of around 10% over the exchange market price, yet supply in this channel also remains quite limited, says one of the sources from Kommersant. "Purchasing AI-95 on the exchange has become exceedingly difficult," he notes. "Demand is several times—possibly more than ten times—exceeding supply."
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, also points to the recovery of the automobile market, which is leading to increased gasoline prices and a greater need for production. Moreover, he notes that AI-95 is not factored into the calculations for the damping mechanism—the subsidies are tied to prices for AI-92 and diesel fuel. Thus, the risks of price increases for AI-95 are always higher, regardless of the physical availability of the fuel, adds Mr. Tereshkin.
The analytical group "UfaOil" notes that the increase in gasoline supply at the beginning of May was attributable to a resumption of trading from large refineries. However, analysts add that later volumes decreased again, partly due to a re-suspension of exchange sales by some refineries. Additional pressure on the market is being exerted by longer delivery times and reduced available supply in significant wholesale transactions, experts add. The shipping times in early May increased by an average of two to four weeks, according to a source from Kommersant in the market. He estimates that unplanned repairs at major facilities could take at least one month. This situation, the source adds, prevents market participants from forming long-term reserves, thereby increasing the risks of fuel shortages in the summer.
Source: Kommersant
