Sanctions Added to the Packages

The anticipated ban on providing services for transporting Russian oil is absent from the new package. However, the Council of the EU reported that the package includes a "basis for a future ban," which will be implemented in coordination with the G7. The regulation suggests that it is appropriate to make amendments to the price cap on Russian oil and oil products. It is expected that new restrictions will be implemented based on a proposal from the EU foreign affairs representative. "This will allow alliance members to promptly block maritime logistics of Russian oil if the parameters of the price cap change," the document states.

The EU had considered a ban on servicing maritime transport of Russian oil as an alternative to the price cap mechanism, as noted by Kpler.

Currently, if the cost of crude does not exceed the maximum price, companies from EU and G7 countries can participate in transporting oil from Russia. As of February 1, the EU and the UK reduced the cap to $44.1 per barrel from the previously effective $47.6 per barrel. The price cap is set to be reviewed every six months to maintain it at 15% below the average market price.

According to S&P Global, the desire for full support from the G7 may delay the decision regarding the ban on providing services for transporting Russian oil by several months. Representatives from major shipping economies—Malta and Greece, as well as Hungary and Slovakia—opposed this move, analysts indicated.

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, in March, G7-linked tankers accounted for 20.3% of Russian oil exports totaling 3.4 million barrels per day. This figure is down from 29.2% in February and marks the lowest level in ten months. G7-linked tankers are reducing their shipments of Russian crude due to rising prices following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East.

• The sanctions include Bashneft (largest shareholder—Rosneft), Slavneft (owned by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft), the ports of Primorsk and Tuapse, as well as 12 refineries in Russia, including Lukoil.
• A total of 46 additional vessels have been banned from entering ports and maritime services, bringing the total number of tankers in the blacklist to 632.
• The EU has also imposed restrictions on the sale of tankers from EU countries to prevent their ultimate use by Russia, as indicated in the document. European countries are now required to provide documentation stating that tankers are "not for the RF."
• Furthermore, the ports of Murmansk and Karimun in Indonesia are now subject to European restrictions.

As reported by Reuters, Karimun has become one of the main transshipment points for Russian oil products, which are then exported to Malaysia, Singapore, and China. In December, the volume of supplies was estimated at 300,000 tons.

Sergei Tereshkin, the CEO of Open Oil Market, states that the transportation of crude from Russia will likely increasingly rely on tankers registered outside the EU and major OECD countries. While the reduction in re-export through the Karimun terminal poses risks, it is likely that another similar location will be found, he adds. Overall, he suggests that the primary impact of the current sanctions package will be an increase in logistics costs. Furthermore, unlike the United States, the EU lacks a mechanism for monitoring previously imposed restrictions.

Regarding LNG, the EU plans to introduce a ban on providing LNG terminal services to Russian companies starting January 1, 2027. The European Commission believes that this ban will automatically provide grounds for LNG terminal operators in the EU to terminate long-term contracts with Russian companies. Verba Legal advisor Marat Samarsky notes that general foreign policy and security policy take precedence over other areas of law. "We have seen this in both older cases and more recent ones, where the court justified the emergency imposition of sanctions without examining the grounds for some urgency of effectiveness," he emphasizes.

Services related to LNG terminals include unloading, storage, dispatching, mooring, regasification, liquefaction, loading into tank trucks, bunkering of LNG, including temporary storage, etc. The Yamal LNG plant (50.1% owned by Novatek, 20% by TotalEnergies) has a 20-year agreement with Belgium’s Fluxys LNG for the use of a tank for LNG transshipment at the Zeebrugge terminal. Starting in April 2025, a ban on the re-export of Russian LNG to third countries will take effect in EU ports, after which Russia increased its deliveries to the European market.

The new sanctions also introduce a prohibition on services—technical, financial, or brokerage—for Russian LNG tankers and icebreakers starting from April 25, 2026.

As of January 1, a ban on supplying LNG to the EU under long-term contracts will go into effect, while for short-term contracts it will apply starting April 25, 2026. In light of the Middle Eastern conflict, there have been sporadic calls from European businesses to reconsider this ban. For instance, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of the Italian group Eni, stated that it remains unclear how the bloc will compensate for the loss of approximately 20 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. However, the European Commission has stated that it will stick to its previous intentions. Recently, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen declared that the EU will not abandon its plans to cease purchasing any Russian energy, as that would be "a massive mistake."

Analysts did not expect significant impacts from the new restrictions on metal supplies to Russia (see “Kommersant” from February 9). For instance, Norilsk Nickel reported in its 2024 reporting that it has redirected a significant portion of sales volumes of copper, nickel, and precious metals from Europe primarily to markets in Asia and Russia.

Source: Kommersant