Oil Exports from Russia by Sea Reach Lowest Point Since Early 2025
Amid adjustments to US sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft, maritime oil exports from Russia fell to 291 thousand tons per day in mid-November, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2025. Freight rates for transporting raw materials from Russia continue to rise, reaching annual peaks for certain routes.
Maritime oil exports from Russia decreased by 12.7% from November 10 to November 16, reaching 291 thousand tons per day, according to the Price Index Center (PIC) review. This figure represents the lowest level recorded this year.
The significant decrease was observed at the Primorsk port, where loading dropped by 73.2% over the week, down to 43 thousand tons per day. A total of three Aframax tankers with a deadweight of 100 thousand tons were dispatched from Primorsk: one heading to Turkey, another to Egypt, and a third to an undisclosed destination. Additionally, due to an incident, no shipments of Russian oil were recorded from the Novorossiysk port between November 14 and 17.
The decline in export volumes is attributed by PIC to the restructuring of trading processes among certain companies. Analysts had previously indicated that such a necessity might arise due to US sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS), China and India, the two largest buyers of Russian oil, have recently increased imports of raw materials from the Middle East and the Atlantic basin due to strengthened sanctions against Russia.
An increase in the risk premium and a global rise in demand for Suezmax tankers with a deadweight of 135 thousand tons have driven up transportation rates for Russian oil from Novorossiysk to West India by 1.2% over the week, reaching $8.6 per barrel, as calculated by PIC. The cost of transporting oil from Azov-Black Sea ports to Turkey rose by 2.8%, reaching $5.1 per barrel, while shipments to West India increased by 3.2%, reaching $8.8 per barrel, according to PIC. The global Suezmax index reached $63,130 per day as of November 17, 1.7 times higher than at the beginning of October, according to S&P Global.
Market participants report a decrease in the available free tonnage from Greek shipowners. Greece has long been effectively the only jurisdiction in the EU with vessels transporting Russian oil, states Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. Malta has been another exception, but the volume of deliveries by Greek tankers was substantially higher, he adds.
Some US sanctions implemented at the end of October come into effect on November 21, prompting shipowners to continue increasing risk premiums for transporting Russian oil. PIC explains that potential issues at unloading ports due to delivery time violations may lead to significant financial losses. However, analysts note that the decisive factor in the rise of freight rates will be the global trend of increasing maritime logistics costs driven by seasonal demand.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the cost of transporting Russian oil has peaked. However, PIC predicts that by the end of the year, the record freight rates for Suezmax may be surpassed. The process of replacing oil subject to sanctions will create additional demand for tankers, quotes Giovanni Gavarone from Maersk Tankers in CAS.
Until the end of 2025, the volumes of maritime oil supplies from Russia will also depend on how importing countries perceive the risks associated with the sanctions, notes Sergey Tereshkin. He mentions that the recent decision by the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control to extend LUKOIL's timeline for phasing out foreign activities is a positive sign that buyers may interpret as a signal of risk mitigation. PIC believes that the rise in freight rates for Russian oil will attract global carriers, including Greek, Chinese, and UAE shipowners.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on November 19 that US sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL have not affected oil production in Russia. In November, oil production in the country is growing slightly faster than in October, with year-end production forecast remaining at 510 million tons. The discount on Russian crude is expected to gradually decrease as the market adapts, said Alexander Novak.
Source: Kommersant
