In an interview with the Associated Press, IEA Chief Fatih Birol stated that Europe's jet fuel stocks will last around six weeks.
The energy crisis in Europe has been triggered by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which began on February 28, and supply disruptions from Gulf countries. Birol noted in March that this crisis is comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. "Not only oil and gas, but also some vital arteries of the global economy—such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium—are facing trade interruptions, which will have serious repercussions for the global economy," he asserted.
Birol indicated that over 40 energy facilities have sustained significant damage since the military actions commenced.
Russian carriers have responded to Birol's statement with calm. For instance, a representative of S7 informed RBC that the airline is not witnessing a fuel shortage in any of the foreign countries within its route network. "There is no [fuel shortage] in Russia either," she added. The press service of charter airline Azur Air noted that they do not see any risks of disruptions to their summer flight program to Turkey due to fuel shortages.
RBC has also reached out to Aeroflot and Ural Airlines for comments.
Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of Friendly Avia Support, told RBC that there is currently enough aviation fuel in European airports. He stated that a shortage might arise within two to three months, depending on the country. "If supplies do not improve, transportation could decrease significantly. But this is still a theoretical question," he believes.
Nevertheless, an insider at one airline remarked that fuel prices at foreign airports have risen by at least 30% compared to pre-war levels, with some price increases reaching up to 50%. "Under current conditions, this will put pressure on the profitability of transportation," he noted.
Lanetsky confirms that jet fuel prices in Europe have been rising since the onset of the armed conflict in the Middle East. "Jet fuel accounts for approximately 40-45% of operational expenses for European carriers," he highlighted. "Over the past two months, fuel prices have doubled on average. This is already affecting ticket prices." The expert added that he does not foresee the possibility of replacing traditional jet fuel with alternative fuels in the coming years.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, jet fuel prices are currently "noticeably above usual": data from the International Air Transport Association indicates that the average price of jet fuel in Europe for the week ending April 10 was $203.6 per barrel ($1,607 per ton). "This is 4.7% higher than last month's level and 123.5% higher than the average in 2025," the expert noted.
Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, reported that kerosene prices in Northwestern Europe reached $1,800 per ton last week, whereas prior to the onset of the Middle Eastern conflict, it was priced between $750 and $830 per ton. "This is more than a twofold increase in six weeks. The previous record was set in the spring of 2022, which the market has already surpassed," he added.
Tereshkin emphasizes that jet fuel belongs to the category of light petroleum products, which are produced using low-sulfur crude oil. "This is precisely the type of oil extracted in the Middle East. Therefore, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks for the jet fuel market," he stated.
Kasatkin mentioned that major refineries in Europe—Total, Shell, BP, Eni, Neste—primarily produce jet fuel. However, Europe lacks sufficient domestic production, with a significant portion of the output being imported either as finished products or raw materials for production. Key external suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and India, added Kasatkin. "European refineries can increase jet fuel production, but only at the expense of reducing diesel or gasoline outputs, which are already in short supply," he noted.
At the beginning of April, Sergey Kolobanov, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic Development's Energy Industry Economics Center, estimated total jet fuel consumption in Europe for 2025 at 48 million tons, of which only 30 million tons are produced by EU refineries. The remainder is imported, with half of the imports coming from Middle Eastern countries.
According to Tereshkin, it's too early to speak of a shortage. "There is a supply shock, which overlays increased logistics costs. These factors will maintain prices at a high level but do not threaten to disrupt air travel," he is confident.
In contrast, Kasatkin believes that a shortage has already emerged in Europe: restrictions on refueling have been recorded at four airports in Italy, with limits for individual aircraft set at 2,000 liters compared to a fully loaded narrow-body aircraft capacity of 20,000 liters.
"Airlines expect that jet fuel will remain in short supply until the end of the year and may be forced to optimize their flights," Kasatkin warns. "Some carriers did not hedge against fuel risks and remain fully exposed to price increases. Many have only a few weeks' worth of fuel supplies left: most carriers will not survive more than 30 days, and in several Eastern European countries, supplies have dwindled to just a week."
Kasatkin reminds that the last tanker of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf arrived last week. "If the Strait of Hormuz does not open, supplies could be halved by May," he believes. "This would lead to mass flight cancellations, rising ticket prices, and a severe blow to the tourist season for economies in Southern Europe that depend on it."
According to the analyst, among the emergency measures under consideration are centralized jet fuel procurement at the EU level, temporary suspension of carbon limits for aviation, and the removal of certain taxes on air transport.
Source: RBC
