Key themes shaping the agenda for venture investors and funds as of October 16, 2026:
- Third quarter results. Capital is concentrating in mega-rounds, with AI's share of global venture funding approaching two-thirds.
- New decacorns in AI infrastructure. Modal Labs and Applied Intuition demonstrate multiple growth in valuations over a few months.
- Preparation for Anthropic's IPO. The market awaits the public S-1 form, which will influence the timing of the November offering.
- European deep tech. Photonics, energy storage, and government funds support the best quarter for the region in four years.
- Early stages. Seed rounds of $50–60 million are becoming the norm for teams with strong technological foundations.
Venture Market in Q3 2026: Less Money, More Mega-Rounds
According to Crunchbase, global venture funding in the third quarter of 2026 amounted to $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. This marks a 25% decrease from the record $212 billion in the second quarter but is 53% higher than the previous year. Over nine months, the volume of venture investments reached $679 billion, the highest for this period in recorded history.
The market structure has changed more significantly than its volume:
- Record mega-rounds. 27 companies raised $1 billion or more, up from 16 in the second quarter and 14 in the first. These transactions accounted for about a third of the total quarterly capital.
- Dominance of AI. Startups in artificial intelligence received $102 billion, or 64% of global venture funding.
- Quarter leaders. Databricks and Safe Superintelligence each raised $5 billion, with another six companies receiving at least $3 billion each.
- Early stages are growing. Early-stage funding increased by 25% year-on-year to $40.6 billion, with seed rounds totaling $13 billion.
Concentration is also noticeable on the fund side. According to PitchBook and NVCA, in the first half of the year, Andreessen Horowitz, Thrive Capital, and Founders Fund accounted for 48.1% of all capital raised by American venture funds. The creation of first-time funds is at a minimum since 2016.
AI Infrastructure: Modal Labs Triples Valuation and Joins Decacorn Club
The most discussed deal of the week is Modal Labs' round. The New York-based server infrastructure provider for inference closes a round of $750 million led by Accel at a valuation of $15.75 billion. Just in May, the company was valued at $4.65 billion during its Series C round of $355 million. Thus, its valuation has increased more than threefold in approximately four months.
The logic for investors is clear:
- Modal's annual revenue already exceeded $300 million last spring;
- demand is fueled by AI agents and programming tools that require isolated execution environments;
- the pay-per-use model based on actual compute time suits the uneven inference workloads.
The deal confirms a thesis that is increasingly being incorporated into investment strategies by funds: in 2026, the fastest revaluation occurs at the level of "picks and shovels" for the AI-agent economy.
Autonomous Systems and Defense Technologies: Applied Intuition Valued at $30 Billion
Software developer for autonomous transport Applied Intuition has received investment proposals valuing it at no less than $30 billion. This is twice the $15 billion valuation recorded in its Series F round. A round of over $1 billion may occur in the coming months.
Key parameters for investors:
- the company works with 18 of the 20 largest global automotive manufacturers;
- a valuation of $30 billion corresponds to approximately 36 annual revenues from the projected recurring revenue of $830 million for 2025;
- the growth in the multiple is linked to the company's entrance into military and off-road autonomy, where Applied Intuition competes with Anduril and Saronic.
In the same segment, Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft for orbital security. Drone delivery developer Rino.ai closed a Series C round of $100 million.
Anthropic IPO: Market Awaits Public S-1
The key question for the public offering market is the timeline for Anthropic's IPO. The company confidentially submitted its S-1 draft on June 1, shortly after its Series H round of $65 billion at a valuation of $965 billion. According to business press reports, the Nasdaq has been chosen as the venue, and the target window has shifted from October to November to allow investors to see the results of the third quarter.
If marketing for the offering starts during the week of November 9, the public version of the prospectus should be available by the end of October. Discussed market valuation references reach $2 trillion. For venture funds, this deal is significant for three reasons:
- it will set the standard for financial disclosure for the entire AI sector;
- it will serve as a test for late-stage valuations in the private market;
- a successful listing could open the window for exits for other large AI companies.
Asia: Manus Raises $500 Million After Meta Deal Cancelation
AI agent developer Manus (the parent company of Butterfly Effect) has raised over $500 million. This is the first round following the Chinese authorities forcing Meta to abandon the purchase of the startup for approximately $2 billion. The round was led by Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund participating. The valuation has not been disclosed, but previous reports suggested a target of around $4 billion. The company is also considering an IPO in Hong Kong.
The deal demonstrates that regulatory risks associated with cross-border M&A in the AI sector do not dampen local investors' appetite for agent platforms.
Europe: Deep Tech, Photonics, and Government Funds
European startups raised about $25 billion in the third quarter, marking the region's best performance in four years and a 77% year-on-year increase. October deals confirm a shift towards deep technologies:
- Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) received a nine-figure strategic investment from Siemens, entering the unicorn club. The company will allocate over $200 million for expansion and R&D in Silicon Valley to meet the needs of AI data centers.
- Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million for optical switches that connect thousands of GPUs using light.
- Rabot Energy closed a Series B round of $50 million to transform home batteries into a virtual power plant.
- British Business Bank supported Entrepreneurs First, Headline, and Evantic as part of a £180 million program for AI funds.
Seed and Early Rounds: New Norm for Check Sizes
Early-stage rounds are becoming increasingly capital-intensive. Notable deals in recent days include:
- Hone — seed round of $60 million from Benchmark and Index Ventures at a valuation of $285 million for autonomous AI agents responsible for business outcomes;
- Sabi — seed funding of $50 million led by Khosla Ventures for a wearable neurointerface;
- Oratomic — Series B round of $475 million for fault-tolerant quantum computers;
- Arena — Series B of $200 million at a valuation of $3.1 billion from Lightspeed and Khosla Ventures, nearly double its January valuation;
- Multiply Labs — Series B round of $75 million from Lux Capital for the automation of pharmaceutical manufacturing;
- Matchpoint Therapeutics — Series B of $150 million for drugs based on "molecular glue."
Fintech also maintains activity. Valon Technologies raised $150 million at a valuation of $2.3 billion, Capitolis secured $120 million in a Series E round, and Spiko garnered $90 million in a Series B round.
Russia: Cautious Market and Focus on Corporate Demand
The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, the volume of venture investments decreased by 48% to 4.6 billion rubles, while the number of deals dropped by 45% to 54. High returns on risk-free instruments are diverting capital away from startups, hence funding primarily goes to B2B projects with clear revenue and corporate clients.
The support infrastructure, meanwhile, is expanding:
- The Moscow Venture Fund will direct 250 million rubles to tech companies and hopes to attract around 1 billion rubles in co-investments;
- FRII has launched a fund of 300 million rubles for cybersecurity startups.
What Investors Should Monitor Next Week
- Publication of Anthropic's S-1. The submission timing will be a key indicator for the tech IPO market.
- Closure of the Applied Intuition round. Outcomes will show if the market is ready to pay a premium for dual-use autonomy.
- Money20/20 USA (October 18–21). The conference is expected to bring new fintech deals and partnerships.
- Oslo Innovation Week (October 19–23). A platform for announcements in the Scandinavian climate and deep tech venture.
The venture market in 2026 operates under the principle of "fewer deals — larger checks." Capital is rapidly revaluing the AI infrastructure, while mega-rounds and preparations for major IPOs are shaping a new system of benchmarks for valuations. For venture investors and funds, discipline is taking center stage: revenue, multiples, and a realistic path to exit are more important than the announced round size.
