Detailed Overview of the Oil and Gas Industry Situation as of November 29, 2025: Oil Prices at Lows, Asia Cuts Imports, Sanction Pressure, Price Dynamics, Gas Market, Energy Transition, Coal, Domestic Fuel Market
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of November 29, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting signals, attracting attention from investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts instill cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tensions: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that could, in the long term, alleviate sanction pressure. At the same time, Western countries maintain a strict sanction policy, supporting a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while the American WTI is around $58, which is close to the minimum levels seen over the past couple of years and significantly lower than last year's levels. The European gas market is entering winter in a balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are about 75–80% filled by the end of November, providing a solid reserve of strength. Exchange quotes for gas are being held at relatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty remains: a sharp drop in temperature could lead to a surge in price volatility closer to the end of the season.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is accelerating—many countries are setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although traditional resources are still necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even though oil, gas, and coal remain the backbone of the global energy supply for now. In Russia, following the recent autumn fuel crisis, governmental emergency measures have stabilized the domestic petroleum market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have begun to decline, eliminating the fuel shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends across the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the energy sector as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keeping Prices Low
The global oil market is demonstrating sluggish price dynamics due to fundamental factors of oversupply and demand slowdown. A barrel of Brent is trading in a narrow range around $62, while WTI is around $58, about 15% lower than a year ago and close to multi-year lows. The market is not receiving powerful incentives for either growth or further decline, remaining in a state of relative equilibrium. The cumulative impact of current trends is leading to a slight surplus of oil in the market.
- OPEC+ Production Growth: The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the combined production quota for participating countries will be increased by another 137,000 barrels per day. Although further increases in quotas have been postponed until at least spring 2026 due to oversupply concerns, the current increase in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Demand Slowdown: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The IEA estimates the increase in demand in 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC forecasts are now more restrained—about +1.2 million barrels per day. The slowdown of the global economy and the effects of previous price surges are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
Low prices are beginning to impact high-cost producers. In the U.S. shale sector, drilling activity is being curtailed as the ~$60 per barrel level is bordering on the profitability threshold for several independent companies. Some analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could dip as low as $50 per barrel by 2026. For now, the oversupply and expectations of a more lenient geopolitical situation keep oil prices under pressure.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Reserves Despite Moderate Prices
The gas market is focused on Europe’s approach to the heating season. EU countries have entered the winter cold season with storage facilities filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is only slightly below the record levels seen last autumn and provides a strong buffer in case of prolonged cold spells. Consequently, and coupled with supply diversification, European gas prices are being maintained at low levels: December TTF futures are trading at around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 m³), the lowest in more than a year.
High reserves have been achieved thanks to record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the autumn, European companies actively sourced LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, nearly compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG have been arriving at European ports monthly, enabling an early fill of UGS facilities. Additionally, mild weather has played a role: the warm autumn and the delayed arrival of cold temperatures have moderated consumption and allowed for a slower drawdown of gas from storage.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears robust: reserves are high, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is favorable for Europe’s industry and energy sector as winter begins, reducing costs and risks of disruptions. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the case of anomalously cold weather, the balance of supply and demand could change quickly, forcing a rapid drawdown of gas from storage and causing price spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Inspire Hope, Sanction Standoff Persists
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical easing have emerged. Reports suggest that the U.S. has informally proposed a peace plan to resolve the conflict around Ukraine, which includes a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia provided the agreements are carried out. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly received signals from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement, developed with Moscow's involvement. The prospect of reaching a compromise inspires optimism: de-escalation could potentially lift restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, there is currently no real breakthrough. On the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressure. A new package of U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into force on November 21. Key companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil are now under restrictions, with foreign counterparties instructed to cease cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, the U.K. and EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London set a deadline of November 28 for companies to finalize any transactions with these oil giants, after which cooperation must cease. The American administration has also threatened further stringent measures (up to special tariffs on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, on the diplomatic front, there are currently no concrete shifts, and the sanction standoff remains in full force. Nonetheless, the continued dialogue between key players gives hope that the most severe restrictions could be slowed in anticipation of results from negotiations. In the coming weeks, markets will be closely monitoring engagement between world leaders. The success of peace initiatives will enhance investor sentiment and soften sanction rhetoric, while their failure risks a new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will largely determine the long-term conditions for cooperation in the energy sector and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanction Pressures
The two largest Asian consumers of energy resources—India and China—are forced to adapt to new restrictions on oil trade.
- India: Under pressure from Western sanctions, Indian refineries are significantly reducing their purchases of Russian oil. In particular, Reliance Industries completely halted imports of Urals crude by November 20, obtaining additional price discounts in return. Increased banking scrutiny and the risk of secondary sanctions are prompting Indian refineries to seek alternative suppliers, even though Russia supplied up to a third of India's oil imports by 2025.
- China: In China, state oil companies have temporarily suspended new deals for importing Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions. However, independent processors (commonly known as "teapots") have taken advantage of the situation and increased their purchases to record levels, obtaining crude at significant discounts. Although China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, the country remains approximately 70% dependent on oil imports and 40% dependent on gas imports, remaining critically reliant on external supplies.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries around the world are setting new records for "green" generation. In the European Union, by the end of 2024, total electricity generation from solar and wind power first exceeded production from coal and gas-fired stations. In the U.S., the share of renewable sources surpassed 30% in early 2025. China continues to add record capacities in solar and wind power, reinforcing its leadership in the RES sector. Investments in clean energy are also hitting all-time highs: according to the IEA, global investments in energy transformation will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount directed towards RES, modernization of electric grids, and energy storage systems.
Nonetheless, energy systems still require traditional generation for stability. The growing share of solar and wind creates balancing challenges, as RES do not produce electricity consistently. Gas and, in some cases, coal-fired plants are still required to cover peak loads—last winter, some European countries had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Various governments are rapidly investing in large energy storage systems and "smart" grids to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Experts forecast that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, traditional stations will remain necessary as a backup and insurance. The energy transition is reaching new heights, but it requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources to ensure uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: Stable Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global drive for decarbonization, coal continues to play a key role in the energy balance. This autumn, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in China rose to record levels, although domestic coal production slightly decreased. Consequently, coal imports in China surged to multiyear highs, lifting global prices from the disastrous summer lows. Other major consumers, such as India, continue to generate a large portion of their electricity from coal, while many developing countries are still constructing new coal-fired power plants. Coal exporters have increased shipments, benefiting from strong demand for the commodity.
After the turmoil of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts expect that in the coming decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The Russian fuel market has achieved stabilization following the acute crisis of early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel soared to record heights, causing local fuel shortages at some gas stations. The government had to intervene: temporary restrictions on the export of petroleum products were introduced at the end of September, while refineries increased fuel output following the completion of scheduled repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, the price surge was successfully reversed.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for Ai-92 gasoline had decreased by another approximately 4%, while Ai-95 dropped by 3%, and diesel prices fell by about 3% as well. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to reflect in retail prices: consumer prices for gasoline have been slowly decreasing for the third consecutive week (though only by a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of petroleum products to the domestic market.
Overall, the measures taken have already yielded results: the autumn price spike has been succeeded by a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities intend to maintain control over prices, preventing new surges in fuel costs in the coming months.
Prospects for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for peaceful conflict resolution are alleviating prices and risks. On the other hand, the continued sanction standoff and persisting geopolitical tensions generate serious uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector need to manage risks particularly carefully and maintain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil, gas, and fuel companies are currently focusing on increasing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid trade flow restructuring. Simultaneously, they are seeking new growth points—from exploring fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure. Key upcoming events include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine: the outcomes of these will largely shape market sentiment as 2026 approaches.
Experts advise adhering to a diversified strategy. It is worth combining operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans that take into account the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector. Such an approach will help companies and investors navigate current challenges and take advantage of opening opportunities in the dynamically changing energy market.
