Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 28, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions, Fuel Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Overview of Key Events for Investors.
The ongoing developments in the global fuel and energy sector as of November 28, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of mixed signals, drawing the attention of investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution instill cautious optimism regarding a potential decrease in geopolitical tensions, with discussions around potential peace initiatives that could alleviate sanction pressures in the long term. At the same time, Western nations maintain a firm stance on sanctions, further complicating traditional export flows of energy resources.
Global oil prices continue to hover at relatively low levels influenced by an oversupply and weakened demand. The Brent crude oil price remains around $61–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is near $57, close to a two-year low and significantly below last year's levels. The European gas market enters the winter in a relatively balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is approximately 75–80% full of total capacity by the end of November. This stockpile provides a solid reserve of resilience, and gas exchange quotes remain at comparably low levels. However, weather uncertainties persist: a sharp drop in temperature could trigger a spike in price volatility as the season nears its end.
Concurrently, the global energy transition is accelerating, with many countries setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), though traditional resources remain essential for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even as oil, gas, and coal continue to underpin global energy supplies. In Russia, following the recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency measures taken by authorities have stabilized the domestic petroleum market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have turned downward, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials segments of the energy sector as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices at Minimum Levels
The global oil market is demonstrating weak price dynamics under the influence of fundamental factors relating to oversupply and slowing demand. Brent is trading in a narrow range of around $61–62, and WTI near $57, which is approximately 15% lower than a year ago and close to multi-year lows.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for participants in the agreement will rise by another 137,000 barrels per day. Although further increases in quotas are deferred until at least spring 2026 due to concerns about market over-saturation, the current growth in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Slowing Demand. The pace of global oil consumption growth has significantly slowed. The IEA estimates that demand growth in 2025 will be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to about 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are now more tempered - around +1.2 million barrels per day. Weakened global economies and the effects of previous price surges are limiting consumption, with an additional factor being the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
- Geopolitical Factors. Signals regarding a potential peace plan for Ukraine have temporarily reduced some geopolitical premiums in prices. However, there are no actual agreements yet, and the sanctions regime remains in place, preventing any sustainable market calming. Traders continue to react nervously to news: without real progress, any peace initiatives only produce short-term effects.
- Shale Production in the U.S. Relatively low prices are beginning to restrain the activity of American shale companies. The number of drilling rigs in key U.S. oil basins is decreasing, as prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel, making the development of new wells less profitable. If this pricing trend continues, the growth in U.S. supply may significantly slow.
The collective influence of these factors leads to the formation of a slight surplus in the market: supply currently slightly exceeds demand. Oil prices remain close to their recent lows. Some analysts note that if current trends persist, the average price for Brent could drop to $50 per barrel by 2026. For now, the market remains in relative equilibrium, not receiving strong impulses either for growth or decline.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Stocks at Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the focus is on how Europe will navigate the heating season. EU countries have approached the winter cold with underground gas storage filled to a comfortable 75–80% of their capacity by the end of November. This is just slightly below the record stock levels of last autumn and provides a strong buffer in case of prolonged cold weather. This, along with supply diversification, keeps European gas prices at low levels: December TTF futures are around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 cubic meters) - a low not seen in more than a year.
High stock levels have been made possible by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). European companies actively sourced LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other nations in the autumn, nearly compensating for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia. Monthly arrivals of LNG surpassed 10 billion cubic meters into European ports, allowing storage to be filled in advance. An additional factor has been the mild weather: a warm autumn and delayed cold onset have suppressed consumption and allowed for gas stock usage to proceed more slowly than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are significant, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This is favorable for European industry and power generation at the onset of winter, reducing costs and risks of disruptions. Nevertheless, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold, the balance may shift quickly, forcing accelerated consumption of gas from UGS and prompting price spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives and Sanction Pressure Shape Mixed Expectations
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical easing emerged. The U.S. unofficially presented a peace plan concerning Ukraine, which includes a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia. According to media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received a signal from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's participation. The prospect of reaching a compromise instills optimism: the de-escalation of the conflict could potentially lead to the lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in raw material markets.
However, no real breakthrough has materialized, and on the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressure. On November 21, a new package of U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. The largest companies, Rosneft and LUKOIL, are included in these restrictions – foreign partners were mandated to completely cease their cooperation by this date. In mid-November, the UK and EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London granted companies until November 28 to finalize transactions with these oil giants, after which any cooperation must cease. The U.S. administration has also threatened additional stringent actions (up to special tariffs against countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, on the diplomatic front, there are currently no specific shifts, and the sanctions standoff remains fully intact. Nonetheless, the mere continuation of dialogue among key players gives hope that the most stringent restrictions may be slowed down in anticipation of negotiation results. In the coming weeks, markets will be watching the contacts of global leaders: the success of peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric of restrictions, while their failure threatens new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will determine the long-term conditions for cooperation in energy and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Under Sanction Pressure
India and China, the two largest Asian consumers, are adapting to sanction pressures. Under Western pressure, Indian refiners are reducing their imports of Russian oil (in particular, Reliance halted Urals imports by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in return). In China, state-owned enterprises have temporarily suspended new deals for Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions, although independent refineries have increased their purchases to record volumes, taking advantage of the situation. Although China is also ramping up its own production of oil and gas, the country remains approximately 70% dependent on external supplies for oil and 40% for gas.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries are setting new records in "green" generation. In the EU, by the end of 2024, cumulative output from solar and wind for the first time exceeded generation from coal and gas plants; in the U.S., the share of RES surpassed 30% at the start of 2025. China is annually commissioning record volumes of solar and wind capacity, strengthening its leadership. Investments in clean energy are also at a maximum: according to the IEA, they will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half going to RES, power grids, and energy storage.
Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional generation for stability. The growing share of solar and wind presents balancing challenges since RES do not produce electricity consistently. Gas, and in some cases coal, plants are still required to cover peak loads— for example, last winter, some European countries had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities are rapidly investing in energy storage systems and "smart" grids in an effort to enhance reliability. Experts forecast that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal, but in the near years, traditional plants will remain necessary as reserves. The energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources.
Coal: Robust Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal maintains a critical role in the energy balance. In autumn, China increased power generation at coal-fired power plants to record levels, although domestic production decreased slightly — this pushed imports to multi-year highs and lifted global prices from summer lows. Other major consumers (such as India) still generate the majority of their electricity from coal, while many developing countries are constructing new coal-fired power plants. Exporters are ramping up shipments, taking advantage of high demand. Following the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts predict that over the next decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will continue to play a significant role despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After the Autumn Crisis
Stabilization has been achieved in the Russian fuel market following the acute crisis of early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel surged to record highs, causing local fuel shortages at some gas stations. The government was forced to intervene: temporary export restrictions on petroleum products were introduced at the end of September, while refineries increased fuel output following maintenance. By mid-October, these measures had successfully reversed the price surge.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline dropped by about 4%, AI-95 by 3%, and diesel also saw a reduction of approximately 3%. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to reflect in retail: consumer prices for gasoline have slowly decreased for the third consecutive week (albeit only by a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of petroleum products to the domestic market. In total, the measures taken have already yielded effects: the autumn price surge has given way to a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. The authorities intend to maintain control over prices, preventing further fuel price spikes in the coming months.
Outlook for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, the oversupply and hopes for peaceful conflict resolution ease prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanctions standoff and persistent geopolitical tensions generate significant uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must exercise heightened risk management and maintain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil and gas firms are focused on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels in the context of shifting trade flows while also seeking new growth avenues—from exploring fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
Crucial events in the near future will include the OPEC+ meeting at the beginning of December and possible progress in peace negotiations concerning Ukraine—the outcome will significantly shape market sentiment on the threshold of 2026. Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy: balancing operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans considering an accelerated energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector.
