Current News of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Market as of November 19, 2025: Oil Price Decline, Gas Demand Surge Ahead of Cold Snap, Intensified Sanctions, Renewable Energy Dynamics, and the State of Oil Products and Refining. Analysis for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The current events in the oil, gas, and energy sector on November 19, 2025, unfold under the influence of contradictory factors. **Oil prices** remain under pressure due to oversupply: Brent quotations are holding around local lows ($63–64 per barrel, WTI – approximately $59–60), reflecting a surplus in the market. Simultaneously, the European **gas market** has experienced price stagnation amid full storage facilities and a mild autumn – gas exchange prices have dropped to one-and-a-half-year lows (~$370 per thousand cubic meters), although the forecast for a sharp cold snap in Europe brings volatility back and supports demand. At a geopolitical level, sanction pressure is intensifying: the West is preparing new restrictions against Russian energy exports, which are already changing global oil trade flows. Meanwhile, the **global energy transition** is gaining momentum – investments in renewable sources are breaking records, although traditional resources still play a key role in meeting global demand. In Russia, emergency government measures have stabilized the domestic fuel market after a recent crisis, normalizing supplies to gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key segments of the industry – oil, gas, geopolitics, electricity, coal sector, renewable energy sources, as well as the market for oil products and refining.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
The global oil market enters winter showing signs of oversaturation. After a brief rebound last week, prices are stagnating at lower levels: Brent remains in the range of $60–64 per barrel, significantly lower than levels a month ago and about 10–15% below a year ago. The main factor is the preemptive rise in supply amidst slowing demand, creating an oil surplus and capping quotations. Global energy reserves remain high, and traders are factoring in a scenario of continued oversupply in the fourth quarter.
- OPEC+ Production and Other Producers: The oil alliance OPEC+ has methodically increased production in 2025, returning previously restricted volumes to the market. Since the beginning of the year, total global supply has increased by approximately 5–6 million barrels per day, primarily due to OPEC+ countries and record production increases in the U.S. and Brazil. While prices remain above critical levels for producers (~$50), alliance participants are not in a hurry to announce new cuts. However, OPEC+ representatives have indicated their readiness to reduce production again in 2026 if prices fall too low.
- Demand and Economic Situation: Global oil consumption growth has slowed due to weak macroeconomic dynamics. The economic slowdown in China, high interest rates in the U.S. and EU, and energy-saving measures are all limiting the increase in demand. It is forecasted that in 2025, global oil consumption will rise by less than +0.8 million barrels per day (compared to +2 million barrels per day in 2023). Nevertheless, certain segments remain resilient: the heating season has begun to support demand for petroleum products (diesel, fuel oil), and air travel and vehicle traffic are gradually increasing.
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions over sanctions and conflicts occasionally make their presence felt, but their impact is short-term. For instance, last week's drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk temporarily interrupted exports, causing prices to spike by more than 2%. However, the rapid recovery of shipments reverted the market to a downward trend. Overall, even acute incidents currently only temporarily support prices, yielding to the more significant fundamental factors of market oversaturation.
Gas Market: Cold Snap in Europe and the Role of LNG
The gas market has experienced relative stability this autumn, but the approaching winter is making new adjustments. Europe is entering the heating season with considerable reserves: underground gas storage facilities are filled to an average of ~85–90%, providing a solid safety margin. Thanks to mild weather in September-October, European gas prices dropped to their lowest levels since spring 2024 – TTF futures fell below €31 per MWh (~$370 per thousand cubic meters). However, forecasts of a sharp cold snap in Western Europe (5–7°C below normal) have led to a rebound in quotations from their reached lows: as the cold sets in, demand for gas for heating is rapidly increasing, driving the market upward.
- Supply and Storage Balance: Meteorologists anticipate a significant increase in gas consumption in the coming weeks due to cold weather. If winter turns out to be harsh, even record reserves might only last until the end of the season – accelerated withdrawals from underground storage could provoke a new surge in prices and a need to ramp up imports. However, the current level of demand in the EU is still below pre-crisis levels: industries and households that endured the energy crisis of 2022–2023 have implemented savings measures. This raises hopes that with a mild winter, existing reserves will be sufficient to get through peak periods without fuel shortages.
- The Role of LNG and External Supplies: The stability factor remains the import of liquefied natural gas. European companies continue to secure large volumes of LNG from various regions – from the U.S. and Qatar to Africa. Record LNG exports from the U.S. and increased capacity in the Middle East have ensured high supply on the global market, keeping spot prices relatively low. At the same time, demand in Asia remains subdued: the economies of China and other countries in the region are cooling, and storage facilities in East Asia are full, making competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments currently non-existent. This has allowed additional tankers to be directed to the EU and smooth seasonal fluctuations. Alternative pipeline supplies to Europe also remain stable: Norway, Algeria, and other exporters continue to reliably cover a significant portion of the EU's needs, replacing the missing Russian gas.
International Situation: Sanctions and Reorientation of Energy Exports
**Geopolitical factors** continue to significantly influence the fuel and energy complex. In November, the West intensified sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. **The U.S.** imposed strict limitations against the largest Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, setting a deadline of November 21 for the termination of any dealings with them. As a result, major Asian importers have begun to adjust their operations: several Indian refiners have halted new purchases of Russian oil for December delivery, and Chinese state companies have temporarily reduced purchases of seaborne shipments. These steps by the two main buyers of Russian raw materials are forcing Moscow to offer even greater discounts to sell volumes – the discount on Urals crude has reached ~$4 to Brent (the maximum in a year). The **European Union** is preparing an 18th sanctions package, which includes further restrictions: from tightening the oil price cap (a reduction to ~$47 per barrel is being discussed) to sanctions against the tanker "shadow fleet" and individual foreign refineries linked to the processing of Russian raw materials. Although the effectiveness of the new measures is limited (Russia is actively redirecting exports to friendly countries and using alternative logistics), the uncertainty of the sanctions is reducing investment activity and forcing companies to restructure their supply chains.
Against this backdrop, there is a reorientation of global **energy flows**. Russian oil and oil products exports are increasingly shifting towards Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, compensating for the decline in deliveries to Europe. India, which had previously increased imports of Russian oil due to substantial discounts, is now under external pressure to diversify sourcing and is striving to reduce dependency on a single supplier in the long term. The country has launched programs to boost domestic production – national companies are drilling new deep-water wells to enhance energy security. China remains the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons, not adhering to Western restrictions; however, Beijing is also ramping up domestic oil (+1–2% annually) and gas (+5–6% annually) production to reduce imports. Simultaneously, Chinese importers and the government are signing long-term contracts for supplies from various countries (Middle East, Latin America, the U.S. – via LNG) to diversify risks. Thus, global energy trade is gradually restructuring: Russia is forced to explore new markets for sales, offering competitive conditions, while major consumers navigate between energy profitability and geopolitical considerations.
Positive signals for the markets have emerged through certain steps towards détente in international relations. A fragile truce in one of the protracted conflicts in the Middle East has reduced the risks of oil supply disruptions from the region. Additionally, the U.S. and China agreed on a temporary trade truce at a recent summit, easing mutual tariffs – this improves prospects for the global economy and energy demand. However, there have been no principled breakthroughs in resolving major geopolitical crises, so sanctions and trade restrictions will remain significant factors for the energy sector in the near future.
Electric Power Industry: Load on Networks and Generation Records
The global electric power sector in 2025 demonstrates resilience in the face of rising loads and changes in generation structure. Many countries are setting new records for electricity consumption: an abnormally hot summer led to a surge in demand for air conditioning, and winter may bring peak loads during cold spells. At the same time, there is an accelerated transition to low-carbon generation – the share of renewable sources (solar and wind power plants) is steadily growing, setting historical maximums in the energy balances of several states. In the first half of 2025, global generation from renewables, according to analysts, for the first time exceeded output from coal-fired power plants. In certain economies (EU, U.S., China), on particular days, up to 80–100% of electricity comes from solar, wind, and other renewables. This indicates significant progress in the energy transition but also presents new challenges in ensuring the stability of energy systems.
- Reliability and Capacity Reserves: The rapid increase in the share of solar and wind generation necessitates infrastructure modernization. Due to the variable nature of renewables, particular attention is being paid to the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage stations) and supporting capacities. Gas and coal-fired power plants continue to be called upon to cover peak loads during cold winter evenings and calm periods, although their role is gradually diminishing. Energy companies are investing in "smart" networks and demand management systems to avoid overloads. Despite extreme temperatures and record consumption, power systems in developed countries in 2025 largely held up under the strain without mass outages, inspiring confidence for the upcoming winter.
- Government Policy: Governments of leading economies are supporting the trend toward decarbonizing electricity generation. The European Union has set new target benchmarks for the share of renewable energy by 2030, promoting the construction of wind farms and solar stations. In the U.S., subsidy and tax incentive programs for clean energy continue to operate, although their parameters may be revised depending on the political environment. China and India are implementing large-scale state projects to develop power grids and storage systems while increasing their generation through renewables and nuclear energy. There is a growing interest in innovative technologies – from "green" hydrogen to new modular nuclear reactors – as prospective elements of the future energy system.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateau and Pressure on Production
The global coal sector is facing a turning point. After several years of growth, coal consumption has reached a historically high level and is beginning to stabilize. By the end of 2024, global coal consumption hit a record ~8.8 billion tons, but in 2025, this figure is no longer increasing – demand has effectively reached a "plateau." Heightened environmental policies and competition from cheap renewables are causing many countries to abandon plans to expand coal generation. International forecasts agree that between 2025 and 2026, coal consumption will begin a gradual decline as the energy transition accelerates.
- Oversupply and Prices: Despite demand stagnation, global coal production remains close to its maximum. Major producers (China, India, Indonesia, Australia) maintain high levels of output, with some exporters even increasing volumes to capitalize on last year’s high prices. Consequently, the market has seen surplus stocks, and coal prices have dropped to their lowest values in recent years. This pressure has been particularly felt by companies with high costs. Many coal mines in the U.S. and Europe are reducing production, and in Russia, exporters are facing declining profits due to falling raw material prices and sanctions on shipments. The market conditions are forcing players to reassess investment plans: new projects are being frozen, and existing capacities are being optimized for lower demand.
- Transition Strategy: While coal remains an important part of the energy mix in several countries (particularly in Asia), the industry is preparing for a reduction in the long term. Governments are introducing increasingly stringent environmental regulations, promoting the transition of power plants to gas and renewables, and implementing carbon taxes. Major energy companies are announcing goals to phase out coal generation by 2030–2040. Meanwhile, some developing economies are seeking financial support to move away from coal: investment programs are being discussed at international forums to help replace coal capacity with "clean" energy without compromising energy security. Therefore, the coal sector is under dual pressure – market and regulatory – and has already entered a phase of structural decline.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments and Climate Goals
Renewable energy continues to set new highs, becoming the main driver of industry development. The year 2025 is expected to be a record year for renewable capacity additions: estimates suggest that globally, around 600–700 GW of new generating capacity based on solar, wind, and other sources will be added over the year – even more than in the previous year (when about 580 GW was added). The solar and wind energy sectors are receiving massive investments worldwide as countries strive to meet their climate commitments. Nevertheless, experts note that to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement, the pace of "green" generation additions must accelerate further – potentially tripling annual volumes by the end of the decade.
- International Climate Agenda: At the upcoming COP30 summit, world leaders will discuss further strengthening measures to combat climate change. Many countries have already announced plans to increase the share of renewables in their energy balance by 2030 (the EU, China, India, and the U.S. are revising their targets upward). An initiative for a complete phase-out of coal generation within the next few decades is under discussion. Meanwhile, challenges remain – from the need to modernize power grids to ensuring raw materials for producing solar panels and batteries. Despite some obstacles (such as subsidy reductions in certain jurisdictions), the global trend toward the transition to clean energy is considered irreversible: **renewable technologies** are becoming cheaper, attracting investor interest.
- Records and Technologies: The year 2025 has seen significant successes in the renewable energy sector. In certain regions (such as South Australia and parts of Europe), wind and solar stations covered 100% of electricity demand for several hours, demonstrating the potential of a zero-carbon system. Innovation is being implemented: the largest energy storage systems in the world are being constructed to smooth generation fluctuations, and "green" hydrogen projects for storing excess electricity are being developed. Offshore wind, floating solar stations, geothermal sources – all this expands the arsenal of renewables. In total, the share of renewable energy in global electricity production has closely approached 35–40%. It is expected that within a few years, more than half of the increase in energy consumption will be covered precisely by renewables, which will reduce the economy's dependence on fossil fuels.
Refining and Fuel Market: Stabilization After Crisis
Following the volatility of early autumn, the global oil products market is showing signs of stabilization. The drop in oil prices and the end of the summer holiday season have allowed refineries to ramp up fuel output and replenish gasoline and diesel stocks. In Europe and the U.S., wholesale gasoline prices have retreated from the peak levels of September, which has also reflected on consumer prices: the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel has moderately decreased compared to early autumn levels. Thus, ahead of winter, the situation on external fuel markets is more balanced than a couple of months ago.
- Global Refining: In autumn, refiners worldwide increased capacity utilization, taking advantage of the pause in price increases. Oil product exports from Middle Eastern and Asian countries partially replaced volumes lost from Russia due to sanctions. Additionally, seasonal factors were at play: the end of peak summer gasoline demand allowed for the accumulation of reserve volumes. As a result, in key markets (North America, Europe), wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel returned to levels seen at the beginning of summer 2025. It is expected that during winter, the demand for distillates (diesel, fuel oil) will rise for heating needs, but under stable oil prices, no sharp increases in fuel costs are anticipated.
- Russian Fuel Market: Within the country, the situation has been stabilized after the September crisis affecting gasoline supplies. The Russian government implemented emergency measures: an export ban on automotive gasoline was introduced, and the export of diesel fuel was significantly restricted, with oil companies instructed to prioritize supplying the domestic market. These steps yielded quick results – by November, wholesale prices on the exchange significantly decreased from peaks, and consumer prices at gas stations ceased to rise. The deficit of gasoline grades Ai-92 and Ai-95 in affected regions has been eliminated, and gas stations are sufficiently stocked. Authorities extended the gasoline export ban until the end of December to consolidate stability, while long-term mechanisms to prevent such crises are being developed (adjustment of the damping mechanism, encouraging refineries to increase fuel production in the off-season, etc.). Overall, refining in Russia has restored previous volumes, allowing confidence in navigating the winter period without supply interruptions for consumers.
Thus, as of November 19, 2025, the oil, gas, and energy markets are characterized by relatively moderate prices and stable supply, despite ongoing sanction risks and weather challenges. Investors and industry participants are carefully monitoring developments – from OPEC+ decisions and winter weather forecasts to outcomes of international negotiations and climate summits – as these factors will determine energy prices and the state of the sector in the coming months.
