Overview of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Market for Saturday, November 15, 2025: Stable Oil Prices, Sanction Pressure on Russian Energy Sector, European Confidence in Gas Reserves, and Preparation for COP30.
Key Takeaways
- Oil: Global oil prices have stabilized after a recent decline, closing the week at local lows due to signs of oversupply and forward-looking OPEC+ decisions.
- Gas and Winter: Europe enters winter with high gas storage levels (around 85%) and expresses confidence in getting through the heating season without shortages, although the energy market remains dependent on weather and LNG imports.
- Sanctions: Increasing sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector (including sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft) forces market participants to restructure supply chains; Russian companies are offering discounts and utilizing shadow fleets of tankers to maintain exports.
- USA and Canada: North American oil production remains at record levels (~13 million barrels per day in the U.S.), export of oil and LNG is increasing, and significant infrastructure projects (pipelines, terminals) are being revived with government support.
- Asia: China is witnessing a slowdown in energy demand growth and planned maintenance at major refineries, while India continues to increase its imports of cheap oil, remaining one of the drivers of global demand.
- New Projects: New promising projects are emerging in raw materials markets—from oil and gas field developments in South America to nuclear power construction plans—indicating continued investment in energy even amid climate initiatives.
Oil Market: Price Stability Amid Anticipations and Oversupply
Prices. After a significant decline earlier in the week, global oil prices show relative stability at the end of the trading week. Benchmark Brent holds around $62–63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovers near $59. These levels are close to the minimum seen in recent months and reflect persistent oversupply in the market. Investors are assessing overproduction risks: according to revised OPEC forecasts, global supply could exceed demand by 2026, and the International Energy Agency also points to accelerating production growth outside of OPEC+. As a result, Brent and WTI quotes are under pressure, showing a slight decline over the week.
Supply and Demand Factors. Price dynamics are influenced by several factors:
- High Supply: Oil production remains at historically high levels. OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing exports after easing restrictions—early November saw a symbolic quota increase (~+0.14 million barrels per day from December), with more significant measures postponed until 2026. Concurrently, U.S. oil production has reached record levels (around 13 million barrels per day), driven by the shale boom and deregulation. Additionally, previously constrained barrels, such as those from the Kurdish oil region in Iraq, are returning to the market. Collectively, this supports oil surplus in the market.
- Slowing Demand: Global demand for oil is growing much slower than in previous years. China's economic slowdown, high prices from recent years, and advances in energy efficiency are limiting consumption. The IEA estimates that global demand growth in 2025 will total less than 1 million barrels per day (for comparison, in 2023 demand growth exceeded 2 million). The rapid spread of electric transportation is also beginning to affect long-term gasoline demand prospects.
- Stocks and Floating Reserves: Commercial oil and petroleum product inventories in key regions continue to grow. In the U.S., crude oil inventories increased by about ~1.3 million barrels last week, with similar trends seen in Europe and Asia. Moreover, significant volumes of oil are accumulating in floating storage—traders estimate that around 1 billion barrels is presently in tankers, some carrying hard-to-sell sanctioned oil. The accumulation of such reserves exerts additional pressure on prices.
Market Expectations. Despite clear signs of oversupply, the price drop is being tempered by several factors. Geopolitical risks and concerns about supply disruptions create a psychological floor for prices around $60 per barrel—market participants remember the possibility of sudden events (escalation of conflicts, force majeure) that could curtail supply. Additionally, an upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting has led markets to price in expectations that major exporters will prevent prices from falling below critical levels. Saudi Arabia and its partners have signaled readiness to reconsider production and extend voluntary restrictions if price declines intensify. Thus, the consensus forecast for the coming weeks is for continued moderately low prices without sharp fluctuations unless unexpected events occur. Oil companies are focusing on reducing costs and hedging, planning budgets for 2026 based on cautious price expectations.
Sanctions Pressure: Restructuring Russia's Export Flows
New Western sanctions against the Russian energy sector are entering a critical phase. In October, the U.S. added major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft to sanctions lists, compelling counterparties to wind down all operations with them by November 21. This deadline is approaching, and Russian market participants are scrambling to adapt to the new conditions. According to sources, Lukoil has appealed to the U.S. Treasury for an extension, arguing the need for more time to close contracts and sell foreign assets. While a decision is yet to be announced, the company’s overseas deals are in limbo, including operational activity at refineries and trading branches abroad. For instance, Lukoil previously attempted to sell several international assets to trader Gunvor, but U.S. authorities blocked this deal in November.
Export Adaptation. The Russian oil and gas sector is seeking alternative sales pathways amidst sanctions pressure. Traditional buyers are restructuring their supply chains: India’s largest state-controlled company, Indian Oil, stated in its new oil tender that suppliers and shipping ports must not be under U.S., EU, or UK sanctions. This means that Indian refineries are ready to continue purchasing Russian oil but through intermediaries from third countries, avoiding direct dealings with sanctioned entities. Another Indian company, Nayara Energy (partly owned by Rosneft), has announced it will maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite external pressure. Simultaneously, direct purchases of Russian oil by leading players in China have sharply reduced; fearing secondary sanctions, several state-owned and independent refiners in China have cut imports from Russia. Reports indicate that Russian oil supplies to China have halved from previous volumes—especially after one Chinese refinery was sanctioned by the EU and UK for cooperation with Russia. This led to a drop in prices for Far Eastern grades (ESPO, “Sokol”), forcing Russian exporters to redirect these volumes to other countries at significant discounts.
Alternative Logistics. To maintain exports, Moscow is increasingly utilizing shadow mechanisms. Oil sales are conducted via obscure traders registered in friendly jurisdictions, with transportation carried out by a “dark fleet” of older tankers that have officially changed ownership. These vessels turn off transponders and transfer oil in open seas, masking its origin. Although this scheme incurs higher costs and risks (environmental and insurance), it allows Russian oil to find its way to markets in Asia and Africa outside official channels. Analysts note that the share of Russian exports routed through “gray” schemes reached record levels in 2025. At the same time, Russia continues to develop trade in national currencies and barter deals with several countries to bypass financial restrictions.
Domestic Market. Tough measures by the Russian government aimed at stabilizing the domestic fuel market, enacted earlier this fall, continue to remain in effect. Export restrictions on gasoline and diesel, introduced in September, have been extended until the end of the year, which, along with dampening payments to refineries, has helped saturate the domestic market with petroleum products. Wholesale fuel prices in Russia have retreated from peak levels in August, while retail prices have stopped rising. Despite external pressures, the Russian oil sector is currently managing to avoid acute disruptions: the domestic market is protected by manual regulation, and export flows have been recalibrated within the framework of the "Eastern Turn." However, experts warn that further tightening of sanctions or new physical threats (such as drone attacks on infrastructure) could inflict a more serious blow to export revenues and production in the future.
USA and Canada: Record Production and Infrastructure Renaissance
The North American energy sector at the end of 2025 shows steady growth, setting the tone for the global market. In the United States, oil production remains at record levels of around 13 million barrels per day, similar to the best pre-crisis periods. American producers, capitalizing on favorable prices from the previous year, have ramped up drilling activity, particularly in Texas and New Mexico's shale fields. Although growth rates slowed in 2025, the U.S. firmly retains its status as the largest oil producer.
Export Growth. Amid high production, the U.S. has also increased oil and gas exports. American oil shipments abroad consistently exceed 4 million barrels per day, heading to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The U.S. has effectively become one of the world's key exporters, supplying allies with raw materials amid sanctions against other producers. Simultaneously, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. are hitting records: in 2025, several new LNG terminals are expected to come online along the Gulf Coast, boosting total capacity to ~150 billion m3 per year. This strengthens the U.S.'s position as a leading gas supplier in the global market—American LNG has helped Europe compensate for the loss of Russian pipeline gas and competes for market share in Asia.
Infrastructure and Policy. The U.S. administration is stimulating the energy sector by easing regulatory barriers. In 2025, development is again permitted in certain oil and gas provinces that had been closed during the previous cycle of environmental restrictions. Furthermore, a large-scale infrastructure project has been revived: the Keystone XL pipeline (connecting Canadian tar sands to refineries in the U.S.) has received the green light to resume construction, halted since 2021. This decision, supported by the administration, aims to enhance supply reliability for heavy oil from Canada and create jobs. Simultaneously, Canada and the U.S. are investing in expanding pipelines and export terminals on the Pacific Coast to deliver energy resources to Asian markets more quickly. Canadian producers, capitalizing on demand, have increased production in Alberta and plan new LNG projects on the west coast.
Balancing Interests. Despite a strong support for traditional fuels, the energy transition continues in North America. Major oil and gas corporations are investing in carbon capture projects, green hydrogen, and renewable energy, attempting to diversify their business models. The U.S. and Canadian governments declare commitments to climate goals while simultaneously emphasizing the need to strengthen energy security through domestic production. This dual approach—either increasing oil and gas production now while simultaneously developing clean technologies—reflects attempts to find a balance between economic demands and climate commitments.
Asia: Demand Under Control, China Cautious, India Accelerating
The Asian region remains a key consumer of energy resources; however, demand dynamics in the largest Asian economies are shifting somewhat. China, long a driver of global oil and gas consumption growth, is showing a more moderate appetite for raw materials in 2025. Economic growth in China has slowed, impacting oil demand—imports stabilized around 11 million barrels per day and no longer reach record levels as seen previously. Additionally, the nation is actively electrifying transportation and developing energy-efficient technologies, reducing the growth rate of gasoline and diesel consumption. An indirect indication of market balance is PetroChina's decision to temporarily halt one of the largest refineries in Yunnan (with a capacity of 13 million tons per year) for repairs. From November 15 to January 15, this facility will be undergoing scheduled upgrades, with fuel supplies to southwest China being re-routed from other sources. The two-month downtime of such a large facility indicates sufficient reserves and backup capacities in the system to conduct upgrades without risking gasoline or diesel shortages in the region.
India. Unlike China, India maintains a high growth rate of energy consumption in 2025. The world's second-most populous country is increasing oil imports, taking advantage of the availability of cheaper barrels from Russia and the Middle East. Traders report that Indian oil imports reached a historic high of over 5 million barrels per day in the fall, meeting the growing demand for fuel in the economy. At the same time, Indian refineries are actively processing a diverse range of crude grades, seeking discounts and benefits from the shifting global flow. The Indian government also accelerates the development of domestic production and infrastructure: LNG reception terminals are being expanded, and new pipelines for gas distribution across the country are being constructed. Furthermore, increasing gas generation and renewable energy is also a priority for New Delhi—the country is investing in solar and wind power stations, aiming to significantly reduce dependency on coal by 2030. Yet, coal remains a primary fuel source in India; new modern coal units are being introduced in 2025 to meet the rising electricity demand.
Other Asian Economies. Southeast Asian countries exhibit a similar picture: energy consumption grows with industrial development, yet governments are striving to reduce import dependency. In Indonesia and Vietnam, programs to develop domestic oil and gas production are underway, and LNG terminals are being constructed to diversify gas supplies. Besides containing demand, China is investing in strategic oil reserves and accelerating the transition to renewable sources—renewable energy's share in China's energy sector has surpassed 30%. However, coal continues to play a significant role in China; after last year's energy supply disruptions, authorities increased domestic coal production to a record 4.6 billion tons per year to avoid shortages. Overall, Asia is balancing between traditional and new energy sources: on one hand, the region remains the primary driver of demand for oil and gas, while on the other hand, it exhibits the highest growth rates in green energy globally.
Europe: Confidence in Reserves, but Market Dependent on Weather
The European energy market enters winter relatively prepared, although there are still vulnerabilities. **Gas Sector:** Underground gas storages (UGS) in the European Union are filled to approximately 85% of capacity by mid-November—a decrease from nearly 100% the previous year, yet still providing a solid buffer for a potentially cold winter. A mild autumn allowed EU countries to conserve fuel: gas consumption in October and early November was below average levels, helping preserve reserves. Furthermore, supply diversification continues: Europe is consistently supplied by record volumes of LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and Africa, almost entirely compensating for the total cessation of pipeline gas imports from Russia. Wholesale gas prices in the EU remain at moderate levels around $400-500 per thousand cubic meters, far from the crisis peaks of 2022. The European Commission announced this week that, according to calculations, even with a colder winter, Europe will have sufficient reserves and current supplies to avoid acute shortages without implementing emergency conservation measures.
Electricity and Renewables. In electricity, Europe demonstrates resilience, but the sector remains susceptible to natural factors. Wind and hydroelectric generation encountered setbacks in 2025: due to prolonged calm and summer droughts, renewable energy production in various EU countries declined by approximately 5-7% compared to last year. This forced operators to increase the load on traditional facilities. For example, Germany compensated for the decline in wind energy with increased output from gas and even coal power plants (electricity generation from gas in Germany rose by ~15% year-on-year over ten months, while coal increased by 4%). Thanks to the availability of backup capacities and sufficient fuel stocks, no serious issues with power supply arose. However, the situation remains fragile: continued weak winds or disruptions in gas supply could trigger price surges. European regulatory bodies are ready with stabilization tools—ranging from joint gas procurement mechanisms to a temporary price cap on the gas exchange, introduced last year.
Policy and Plans. Recognizing the vulnerability of their energy systems, authorities in EU countries have ramped up efforts to accelerate the energy transition. Investments in energy storage, intergovernmental electrical grids, and expanding renewable generation are being promoted universally. Recently, the European Union extended its programs targeting a 15% reduction in gas consumption until 2026 and allocated additional funds for installing heat pumps and improving energy efficiency in buildings. Additionally, reforming the electricity market is being discussed to better integrate renewables and protect consumers from price volatility. In the short term, Europe hopes to navigate this winter without turmoil, heavily reliant on weather conditions. However, in the strategic plan, Europeans are learning lessons from the gas crisis and speeding up the decoupling from dependencies: by 2030, the EU plans to construct dozens of gigawatts of new renewables, enhance LNG infrastructure and retain some nuclear generation for ensuring grid stability.
New Players: Guyana at a Crossroads and Other Projects
New production growth points continue to emerge on the global oil map—especially in developing countries. One of the most striking examples is Guyana in South America, where rich oil fields have been discovered over the past few years. By 2025, production in Guyana has already surpassed 0.6 million barrels per day, and the country has become an important oil exporter in the western hemisphere. Projects led by a consortium (ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC) are progressively commissioning floating production units on the giant offshore Stabroek block. However, the Guyanese oil boom now faces political factors: general elections are expected in December, and the outcome may influence the operating conditions for investors.
Political Risks. In Guyana, opposition forces have stated their intention to revise agreements with oil companies, arguing that the state's share of profits is insufficient. Calls are being made to increase the tax burden on the oil sector and ensure the country benefits more significantly from oil exports. These statements are causing concern among investors: although existing contracts are protected, uncertainty could affect the timelines for new investment decisions. Analysts note that the influx of oil dollars has already substantially accelerated economic growth in Guyana (GDP has risen by tens of percent), but it has also highlighted issues of inequality and revenue management. The current and future governments face the challenge of ensuring transparent distribution of oil revenues while balancing the interests of investors and the population.
Other Projects. Beyond Guyana, significant projects are developing on the global energy horizon. In neighboring Suriname, a consortium led by Petronas is preparing to develop a newly discovered offshore gas field, Sloanea—plans to install a floating LNG plant and begin gas exports by the early 2030s are underway. In Namibia, promising oil deposits have been discovered off the coast, and major companies are assessing the commercial potential of the region, which may transform into "the new Guyana" in Africa. The Middle East is also not lagging behind: Saudi Arabia is actively promoting a megaproject for the development of the Jafurah gas field, aiming to emerge as a leader in blue hydrogen and ammonia exports by the end of the decade. These initiatives demonstrate that, despite the global trend towards reducing hydrocarbons, investments in oil and gas extraction continue—they are merely shifting to new regions and are accompanied by demands for cleaner and more efficient technologies.
Climate Agenda: Expectations Ahead of COP30
In late November, global attention will turn to COP30—the annual UN climate conference, which will take place in Belem, Brazil this time. Hundreds of countries will once again discuss ways to limit global warming, with the energy sector at the center of discussions. The key question is how to balance energy security with the necessity of reducing emissions. Developed countries and international organizations are calling for a faster phase-out of coal and a gradual reduction in oil and gas consumption over the coming decades. Over 100 countries have already signed declarations for a gradual phase-out of coal generation by the 2040s. The European Union is considering a roadmap for phasing down oil consumption. However, the largest hydrocarbon producers remain wary of such initiatives. OPEC insists that oil and gas will remain important parts of the energy balance for many years, and investments in extraction must continue; otherwise, the world risks facing a new price shock by the end of the decade.
Divided Positions. COP30 is expected to witness vigorous debates between nations demanding more decisive actions on decarbonization and countries dependent on oil, gas, and coal exports. The former includes many island nations, European states, and the scientific community—they point to increasingly frequent climate catastrophes and the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions. The latter group, alongside OPEC member states, also includes some developing countries arguing that they need time and financing to transition to clean energy. It is already clear that achieving complete consensus will be challenging. Nonetheless, several initiatives are likely to receive a push: these range from launching mechanisms for global carbon trading to increasing funds supporting green energy in impoverished nations.
Impact on Business. For investors and energy companies, the climate agenda means amplifying long-term trends. G7 countries and the EU plan to implement stricter standards for carbon footprints of production—calculating emissions during the extraction and transportation of oil could soon affect market access for products. Banks and funds continue to gradually cut funding for new coal projects and are becoming more cautious in evaluating oil and gas assets with long payback periods. Meanwhile, the surge in demand for metals and technologies for renewables and energy storage opens new investment opportunities. Additional commitments to develop hydrogen infrastructure, nuclear energy (as a carbon-free basis for generation), and large-scale CO2 storage are expected at COP30. Thus, the global energy sector stands on the brink of significant changes: while oil, gas, and coal remain the foundation of the world energy system, political currents are clear in their shift towards sustainable development. The outcomes of the climate summit in Brazil will provide guidance on how swiftly governments intend to move towards reducing fossil fuel use in the next decade.
