Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News for Saturday, January 10, 2026. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy, coal, oil products, and refineries: Key events in the global fuel and energy complex for investors and market participants.
As we approach 2026, the global energy resources market shows signs of balance: oversupply is curbing price growth for oil and gas, while moderate demand is preventing sharp spikes. Prices for Brent have stabilized around $60–63 per barrel, while American WTI is in the $55–58 range (early January data). The gas market is experiencing a relatively calm period: record volumes of LNG supplies and a mild winter in Europe and Asia are keeping gas prices at low levels (approximately €28–30/MWh in Europe, with China at five-year lows). Investors also note an acceleration in the transition to green energy — renewable sources are breaking power generation records, yet traditional coal and gas plants continue to provide balance to energy systems.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices in Check
The oil market continues to face pressure from fundamental factors: global supply remains high, while demand growth has slowed. In 2025, oil prices fell nearly a fifth from the previous year's levels (the most significant annual decline since 2020), reflecting increased production and weak global economic growth. The OPEC+ alliance suspended its planned production increase at the beginning of 2026 due to "market oversaturation." At the January meeting, leading exporters agreed to maintain production freezes at fourth-quarter levels to prevent further price declines. Quotas for January–March remained unchanged: Russia - 9.574 million bpd, Saudi Arabia - 10.103 million bpd, Iraq - 4.273 million bpd, etc. (excluding compensatory obligations).
- Pressures on oil: maintaining OPEC+'s production freeze in Q1; excessive inventory levels in the market (inventory levels remain high).
- U.S. Policy: The U.S. government has begun selling Venezuelan oil and oil products (up to 30–50 million barrels) from strategic reserves. Such activity may increase supply, although prices are not reacting sharply for now.
- Oil prices: Brent futures have risen to ~$62–63 per barrel (minimum December 8), partly due to geopolitical risks. However, analysts predict that as current trends persist, prices will remain moderate, with Brent potentially falling to $50–55 by mid-year.
- Russian Urals oil is trading at a historically high discount to Brent - around $20–25 (double the annual figure). This reflects sanction pressure and market oversupply. With the ruble strengthening to ~80 per dollar, the ruble price for Urals has dropped to around 3000 rubles/barrel (half the level a year ago).
Gas Market: Record LNG Inflows and Comfortable Inventories
The gas market enjoys favorable pricing dynamics: gas reserves in European underground storage facilities exceed two-thirds of maximum capacity, providing a buffer for the middle of winter. February futures on TTF linger at €28–30/MWh, which is significantly lower than the spring peaks of 2022. By the end of 2025, LNG supplies to Europe reached a record 100 million tons, compensating for reduced pipeline volumes from Russia. Strong competition in the LNG market is expected to continue in 2026: the U.S. is ramping up gas exports, directing up to 70% of supplies to Europe, and new LNG infrastructure is coming online.
- Supply-demand balance: The oversupply of LNG and a mild winter lead to falling prices. Analysts predict that annual average gas prices in Europe may drop by 15-20% (to approximately $350–370 per 1000 m³), and in Asia — by 15% (to ~$11 per million BTU) due to an oversupply of supplies and a lack of significant demand growth.
- LNG exports from the U.S.: In 2025, U.S. LNG exports hit records — over 124 billion cubic meters from January to October (up +23% from 2024). The majority is sent to Europe (around 70% of exports), intensifying regional market competition.
- Prices in Asia: Cold weather is easing, and in China, wholesale LNG prices have dropped to five-year lows due to the mild winter and ample inventories. Storage facilities are over 70% full, forcing sellers to offload excess fuel at reduced prices.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Sanctions, and Internal Consolidation within OPEC+
Political events significantly impact the fuel and energy complex. Firstly, Venezuela is experiencing an unprecedented crisis: on January 3, the U.S. detained President Maduro and effectively took control of a large part of the country's oil sector. Trump announced plans to involve American oil companies in updating Venezuelan infrastructure and increasing oil production. Despite Venezuela's status as holding the world's largest oil reserves, current production levels are low, and recovery will take years. The market reaction has been calm so far: investors recognize that the transition to increased supply will require time.
Secondly, internal conflicts have emerged within OPEC+: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at odds (due to the situation in Yemen), marking the most significant rift within the alliance in years. However, at the January meeting, the "eight" countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait) demonstrated unity — all unanimously confirmed the production freeze and rejected increases in quotas for February. This reflects the key players' desire to avoid sharp supply fluctuations and maintain market stability.
New sanctions imposed by the West add to uncertainty. At the end of 2025, the U.S. administration expanded sectoral sanctions against major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," further restricting opportunities for raw material and technology exports. The European Union is also discussing tightening environmental regulations (for instance, establishing a carbon customs mechanism), which indirectly affects the global fuel sector. Overall, geopolitical risks intensify market competition and accelerate the diversification of supply chains.
Asia: India and China – Balancing Imports and Increasing Production
- India: Traditionally one of the largest buyers of cheap oil. Russian oil at discounts (~$5 below Brent) continues to flow into the Indian market, helping to stabilize domestic fuel prices. However, under U.S. pressure (import tariffs), the largest importer, Reliance Industries, announced a cessation of Russian supplies in January. This is expected to reduce Russian oil imports to India below 1 million bpd, the lowest level in recent years. India is simultaneously attempting to boost its own production and refining capacity while actively developing renewable energy sources (solar and wind) to diversify its energy balance and reduce import dependence.
- China: In 2025, China introduced record volumes of oil and gas to its internal market, comparable to the previous year. Beijing actively purchased resources from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at favorable prices to replenish strategic reserves. Domestic oil and gas production grew only slightly (around 1-2%), with China still covering around 70% of demand through imports. Beijing is investing heavily in exploring new fields and developing technologies, as well as rapidly expanding renewable energy production (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). Despite efforts to increase domestic production, China will remain one of the world's largest energy importers in the coming years.
Energy Transition and Renewables: Growth Records and the Role of Traditional Sources
- New records in renewables: The global shift to clean energy is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries set historic highs in solar and wind power generation. In Europe, the combined production from solar and wind farms has for the first time exceeded the output from coal-fired plants. This reflects the accelerating transition away from coal in favor of "green" technologies.
- Investments in green energy: Major global energy companies (e.g., Shell, BP, Total, and even "Rosneft" and "Novatek") are announcing large-scale "green" field projects — from offshore wind farms to large solar plants and storage systems. The desire to meet climate goals and reduce carbon footprints is driving billion-dollar investments in clean energy.
- Maintaining reserve capacity: As the share of renewables grows, the burden on energy systems increases, given that solar and wind stations produce unstable energy. Therefore, countries are retaining reserves from traditional sources: gas, coal, and nuclear power plants continue to provide baseload and balance the grid during peak consumption periods.
- Climate goals: Many countries are tightening environmental policies and decarbonization plans. Governments are introducing quotas, carbon taxes, and promoting green technologies (hydrogen, electric transport, smart grids). This creates a long-term trend towards a gradual reduction in the share of fossil fuels in the global energy balance.
Fuel Products Market and Russia's Domestic Fuel Market
- Export restrictions: The Russian government extended the ban on the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other oil products until the end of February 2026. This has been done to maintain adequate domestic supply following the 2025 deficit. Restrictions are lifted only for refiners who can export products when they have spare capacity.
- Market assurance: Authorities cite several risks: attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and fuel depots, as well as a sharp rise in wholesale fuel prices in the summer of 2025. The situation is calmer now, as some refineries have already restored normal operating volumes, and seasonal consumption declines (winter) reduce market pressure.
- Fuel imports from the CIS: Belarus has ramped up fuel supplies to Russia, which helps replenish domestic stocks and build reserves. In the event of oversupply, the Ministry of Energy is prepared to reduce imports from Belarus to avoid overproduction. Thus, the risk of a total shortage in the domestic market is decreasing.
- Gasoline prices in Russia: Thanks to a decline in wholesale prices and the restoration of production, experts expect price stability at gas stations in January 2026. After autumn spikes, Russian authorities removed some regulatory measures (excise tax concessions), leading to a moderate decline in wholesale prices, which should prevent retail prices from sharply increasing. Overall, the beginning of 2026 is traditionally considered calm for the fuel market.
