Oil and Gas and Energy News — Tuesday, December 23, 2025: Oil at Lows, Hopes for Peace, Gas Market Stable
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 23, 2025 are attracting the attention of investors and market players with mixed signals. On the diplomatic front, there are signs of movement: negotiations involving the US, EU, and Ukraine are instilling cautious optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in the protracted conflict. However, no specific agreements have yet been reached, and the strict sanctions regime in the energy sector remains in place.
The global oil market remains pressured by excess supply and weakened demand. The price of benchmark Brent crude has fallen to around $60 per barrel – the lowest level since 2021. This indicates the formation of a surplus of raw materials in the market. In contrast, the European gas market is demonstrating resilience: even at the peak of winter demand, underground gas storage in the EU is approximately 68% full, and stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas are keeping prices at moderate levels significantly below last year's figures.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although for the reliability of power systems, traditional coal and gas power plants still play an important role. In Russia, following a summer surge in fuel prices, authorities have taken strict measures (including extending the ban on petroleum product exports), which has stabilized the situation in the domestic market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw material sectors as of today's date.
Oil Prices and OPEC+ Strategy
The oil market continues to experience declining prices: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while WTI is around $55, marking the lowest levels in nearly four years. Investors note that a combination of fundamental factors is preventing prices from rising – on the contrary, it supports a bearish trend.
- Supply Growth: Increased production from both OPEC+ countries and independent producers has led to the emergence of excessive oil volumes. Since spring 2025, total production from OPEC+ countries has increased by nearly 3 million barrels per day, and other exporters have also reached record levels, creating a surplus of raw materials in the market.
- Hopes for Peace: Progress in negotiations to resolve the situation in Ukraine has generated expectations of easing sanctions and the full return of Russian oil volumes to the global market. This factor is further pressuring prices, influencing market expectations.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradual production increases, OPEC+ participants decided to suspend any further increase in supply in Q1 2026 to prevent overproduction. At the December meeting, the alliance agreed to only a symbolic increase in quotas (+137,000 barrels per day) and is prepared to act based on the situation. Key exporters are committed to market stability and are ready to cut production again if prices fall below acceptable levels (around $50 per barrel).
The cumulative impact of these factors keeps the global oil market in a state of moderate surplus. Geopolitical incidents and new restrictions are currently only causing short-term price fluctuations without altering the overall downward trend. Market participants are awaiting new signals – both from the progress of diplomatic efforts and from OPEC+'s actions – that could change the risk balance for oil prices.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
The European gas market has entered the winter season with relative confidence. Underground gas storage levels across the EU are over two-thirds full, minimizing the risk of shortages even during peak demand periods. Active LNG imports have compensated for the near-complete cessation of direct pipeline supplies from Russia, stabilizing gas prices at significantly lower levels than the crisis peaks of 2022 and substantially easing the burden on industry and households.
- Record LNG Imports: In 2025, Europe purchased around 284 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas – a historical maximum. The USA emerged as the key supplier (accounting for up to 60% of the volume), with significant shipments also coming from Qatar, Africa, and other regions.
- Rejection of Russian Gas: The European Union is formalizing plans to completely cease imports of Russian gas by 2027. Starting in early 2026, a ban on the purchase of Russian LNG on the spot market will come into effect, forcing EU countries to fully redirect to alternative sources of supply.
On a global scale, demand for gas remains stable primarily due to Asian markets, but competition among suppliers is intensifying. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are actively investing in new LNG projects, anticipating a share in the growing market. At the same time, the expansion of gas exports from the USA and Australia is leading to an oversupply, keeping global prices within moderate ranges.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth
2025 has marked a significant year for renewable energy. Unprecedented levels of new solar and wind generation capacity have been introduced worldwide. According to industry reports, new solar and wind power installations rose by more than 60% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. For the first time in history, electricity generation from RES has exceeded that from coal-fired power plants (on a semi-annual basis). Total global investments in "clean" energy in 2025 reached approximately $2 trillion; however, even record growth rates are not sufficient to meet climate goals – further investment increases and upgrades to electricity networks are necessary.
Notably, China's success has positioned it as a leader in the energy transition. By introducing hundreds of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations, China was able to curb CO2 emissions in 2025 despite rising energy consumption. China's experience demonstrates that substantial investments in RES can simultaneously satisfy the growing demand for electricity and reduce the carbon footprint of the economy.
Coal Sector: Peak Demand
Global demand for coal reached an all-time high in 2025, although the growth rate has virtually stagnated. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world coal consumption increased by only 0.5% – to approximately 8.85 billion tons, marking a record volume. A prolonged plateau phase is anticipated, followed by a gradual decline by 2030. Coal remains the largest fuel for electricity generation globally, but its share is starting to decrease due to competition from alternative energy sources.
- China: In the largest coal consumer, China (about half of global demand), consumption stabilized in 2025. A gradual decline in coal use is expected by the end of the decade as new RES capacity comes online.
- India: Thanks to a record volume of hydroelectric production in 2025, India has experienced a temporary reduction in coal consumption for the first time in many years.
- USA: In the United States, there has been a slight increase in coal burning due to high gas prices and state support measures allowing coal-fired power plants to operate longer.
Thus, the peak of global coal demand is approaching. The future dynamics in the sector will depend on the pace of the energy transition in the largest economies. As RES and other clean sources continue to develop, gradual displacement of coal from the fuel mix is anticipated.
Petroleum Products and Refining: High Margins
The petroleum products market is showing high profitability for refineries by the end of 2025. Global refining margin indicators (known as "crack spreads") have risen to multi-year highs. This is due to several factors: sanctions that have reduced the export of petroleum products from Russia, several large refineries in Europe and the USA being closed for maintenance, and delays in introducing new refining capacities in the Middle East and Africa. The European diesel fuel market remains particularly profitable: the refining margin for diesel in Europe has risen to levels not seen since 2023, indicating a structural deficit of this type of fuel.
In response, refiners are increasing their utilization rates globally, seeking to take advantage of favorable market conditions. Major oil companies have reported a significant rise in profits in the downstream segment (refining and sales) over the past quarters, thanks to high gasoline and diesel prices. According to IEA data, European refineries increased oil refining by several hundred thousand barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to record margin indicators. Analysts note that without new capacity coming online in Europe and North America, fuel shortages may persist, sustaining high margins into 2026.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Market Impact
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly impact raw material markets. Sanction regimes concerning the oil and gas sector remain in effect, and recent events demonstrate strict compliance with these restrictions. In December, the US intercepted a tanker carrying oil off the coast of Venezuela, thwarting an attempt to evade sanctions. Concurrently, Washington has intensified pressure on the "shadow fleet" transporting Iranian oil: despite new bans, Iranian exports in 2025 reached their highest level in years thanks to active shipments to Asia. Russian oil and petroleum product exports have been completely redirected to alternative markets (China, India, the Middle East), but price restrictions and the EU embargo continue to squeeze the industry's revenues. The European Union is also tightening restrictive measures: in addition to the existing oil embargo, a ban on the import of Russian LNG will come into effect in early 2026 – thus, Europe is logically completing its rejection of Russian energy carriers.
Against this backdrop, market participants are factoring in elevated geopolitical risks and price premiums into their forecasts. Any signals of potential easing of sanctions or diplomatic progress could significantly affect investor sentiment and price dynamics. Meanwhile, oil and gas companies are adapting to the new structure of flows and prices – diversifying logistics and redirecting to regions less susceptible to sanction pressures.
Investments and Projects: A Look Ahead
Despite market volatility, significant investments in the energy sector continue. Middle Eastern countries are ramping up investments in oil and gas production: national companies are expanding capacities to maintain their market share over the long term. In particular, in the UAE, the state corporation ADNOC has secured approximately $11 billion in funding for gas extraction expansion projects. Simultaneously, key exporters like Qatar and the USA are implementing programs to expand LNG terminals, anticipating further growth in global demand for “blue fuel.”
Significant funds are also being directed towards “green” energy. Global investments in renewable sources are growing at an accelerated pace: corporations are investing capital in constructing solar and wind farms, as well as energy storage facilities. However, achieving decarbonization goals requires even more serious efforts and resources. New technologies – such as hydrogen energy and industrial energy storage – are becoming increasingly attractive investment avenues. The year 2026 is expected to bring new mergers and acquisitions in the sector, as well as the launch of large projects in both the traditional oil and gas segment and in the RES sector.
