Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, December 22, 2025 Global Markets, China's Interest Rate, UK's GDP

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for December 22, 2025. PBOC Rate Decision, UK GDP, Hong Kong Inflation, and Corporate Reports from the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the beginning of a shortened pre-holiday week in global markets. The information agenda is relatively modest: investors are focused on the monetary policy decision of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and final economic data from the UK. The Asian session is reacting to the interest rate decision in China and the latest inflation figures from Hong Kong, while in Europe, attention is drawn to the revised UK GDP for Q3. In the US, macroeconomic statistics are limited to secondary indicators, and activity in the stock markets may remain subdued ahead of the release of more significant data on Tuesday. For investors in the CIS, it's crucial to consider the low liquidity in the market before the holidays and the potential for increased volatility in response to unexpected news.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:15 – China: PBOC's decision on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR).
2. 08:30 – Hong Kong: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November).
3. 10:00 – UK: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate); Current Account Balance (Q3).
4. 12:00 – Spain: Trade Balance for October.
5. 13:00 – Ireland, Finland: Producer Price Indexes (November).
6. 16:30 – Canada: Raw Materials Price Index (November).
7. 16:30 – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI, November).
8. 17:00 – Mexico: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).

Asia: PBOC Rate Decision and Inflation

• PBOC (China): The People's Bank of China is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate at 3.00%. The pause in the monetary easing cycle is linked to signs of economic stabilization and moderate inflation in China. Any unexpected change in the rate or comments from the regulator could influence sentiment in Asian markets: a rate cut would support equities and commodities, while keeping the course unchanged is already factored into prices.
• Hong Kong (CPI): Consumer inflation in Hong Kong for November will provide insight into demand conditions in one of Asia's financial hubs. Forecasts suggest a moderate price increase in the range of 2–3% year-on-year, reflecting stable household spending. A slowdown in the CPI may indicate reduced price pressure and give policymakers room to support the economy, while accelerating inflation could argue for caution in monetary policy.

Europe: Final Data on UK GDP

• UK (Q3 GDP): The final estimate for GDP growth in Q3 2025 will be published. Preliminary data indicate that the UK economy grew only +0.1% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting stagnation amid post-pandemic slowdown and the effects of the Bank of England's rate hikes. Confirmation of weak growth or downward revision could heighten expectations of a softer policy from the regulator in 2026 and put pressure on the pound. Conversely, if the revision shows stronger growth, this would support sterling and investor sentiment in the UK equity market.
• Current Account Balance: The UK's current account balance for Q3 will also be released. A persistent current account deficit highlights the pound's vulnerability – a high deficit (relative to GDP) signifies the economy's reliance on external investments. Investors will assess whether the deficit has narrowed amid a revival in exports and tourism. A lower deficit would support GBP, while an expanding imbalance could weaken the currency's position.
• Other European Statistics: Spain's trade balance for October will reflect export dynamics amid a slowdown in the Eurozone. Additionally, the publication of producer price indexes in Ireland and Finland will provide insights into cost trends in different parts of Europe. Overall, these indicators are unlikely to significantly impact the market but will serve as a backdrop for evaluating inflationary processes in the EU.

USA: Indicators Amid Pre-Christmas Lull

• Chicago Fed Activity Index: The composite Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI) for November reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy based on 85 statistical indicators. In the previous month, the NAI was around zero, signaling medium-term growth rates. If the index significantly enters negative territory, it could indicate an emerging slowdown in the US economy at the year's end. However, markets are likely to respond cautiously, as the indicator has limited influence compared to the significant releases scheduled for Tuesday.
• US Market: American investors begin the session without major reports or first-tier data. During the pre-Christmas period, low volatility and reduced trading volumes are likely. Market participants will look to external signals – commodity price movements, news from China and Europe – and adjust their positions ahead of essential releases the following day (such as GDP statistics and durable goods orders on Tuesday). Individual corporate news and technical factors may also remain in focus, but strong drivers for one-sided index movements are not anticipated during this day.

Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO)

• AAR Corp (AIR) – an American aviation services company. Investors are looking for comments on demand for aviation development and maintenance; an increase in orders from airlines and the military sector could boost shares. Management's forecasts regarding margins amid rising costs and interest rates are also crucial.
• Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a Japanese clothing retail chain (retail, approximately $5 billion market capitalization). The company will report for the 3rd quarter of the 2026 financial year. Key metrics include comparable sales (LFL) in the retail network, revenue dynamics amid fluctuating consumer demand in Japan, and margin trends against the backdrop of yen fluctuations and import costs. Shimamura's results will signal the state of the consumer sector in Japan at year-end.

Reporting: After Market Close (AMC)

• There are no significant releases after the main session ends. The corporate calendar in the US for this day is nearly empty – larger companies in the S&P 500 indices reported earlier. Investors do not expect substantial surprises from public companies on Monday evening, contributing to a relatively calm news backdrop.

Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500 (USA): On December 22, there are no quarterly reports from known issuers in the index of major American companies. Many market leaders (FedEx, Nike, Oracle, etc.) have already reported in the previous week, shifting participants' attention towards macroeconomic factors. The dynamics of the S&P 500 on this Monday will be more influenced by external factors – the situation in China and Europe – and the overall risk appetite before the holidays rather than by corporate news.
• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No financial reports from Eurozone blue chips are scheduled for Monday. European markets are focused on data from the UK and the general state of the EU economy. As the year comes to an end, investors are assessing macro statistics (such as Spain’s trade balance) and monetary signals, influencing movements in sector indices. The absence of major corporate events means that external factors (EUR/GBP exchange rates, oil prices) may have a more substantial impact on sentiment in Euro Stoxx 50.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese index continues to publish results for companies with non-standard fiscal years. Focus remains on the retail and industrial sector releases. Specifically, one notable report of the day will be from Shimamura, reflecting consumer activity in Japan. Overall, activity in the Japanese market is decreasing as the year ends, and investors are analyzing reports released earlier for Q3 while preparing for a new season in January.
• MOEX (Russia): The corporate reporting season on the Moscow Exchange is effectively over; there are no major public companies releasing financial results on December 22. Some issuers are holding dividend councils and closing shareholder registries (for example, **Polus**, **Ozon**, **Diasoft** – the last day to receive dividends), but these events have already been priced in and do not significantly affect index dynamics. The Russian market during these days is more likely to follow the external backdrop and commodity prices amid a near-total absence of domestic reporting drivers.

Day Summary: Key Points for Investors

• China's Monetary Policy: The PBOC's decision on the LPR is the key factor of the morning. Its outcome will determine the mood in the Asian session and could be reflected in commodity markets. Investors should monitor the reactions of the yuan and Australian dollar as indicators of risk appetite in emerging markets following the PBOC’s announcement.
• UK Data: The final data on UK GDP and accompanying reports (current account balance, investments) will provide essential benchmarks for the state of the economy before the weekend. Any deviations from expectations could influence the pound sterling’s exchange rate and sentiment in European markets, especially in the UK banking and consumer sectors.
• Thin Market Before Holidays: The pre-Christmas week is characterized by reduced liquidity as many participants take a pause. In such conditions, even single large orders or news can lead to disproportionately sharp price movements. Investors are advised to remain cautious: place limit orders, avoid excessive risks, and be prepared for short-term volatility spikes in a thin market.
• Lack of Corporate Drivers: A sparse corporate earnings calendar means that market fluctuations on this day will predominantly be influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Investors may use this pause to reassess portfolios ahead of the new earnings season in January, focusing on fundamental company metrics without the pressure of fresh quarterly results.
• Preparation for Key Events of the Week: While Monday is relatively calm, significant data releases from the US (second estimate of GDP for Q3, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index) and RBA meeting minutes in Asia will come out on Tuesday. Investors should outline a strategy in advance of this information flow to respond swiftly to potential changes in the macro backdrop. Given the shortened sessions on December 24 and the holiday on December 25 for many exchanges, risk management and position balancing at the start of the week are particularly relevant.