Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 14, 2025. Analysis of Oil Oversupply, Sanctions Against Russia, European Energy Risks, and New Projects in Nuclear and Renewable Energy.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Pressure on Prices
Global oil prices continue to be under pressure due to signs of oversupply and weakening demand. After a sharp decline the day before, prices stabilized on Thursday: Brent held around $63 per barrel, while WTI hovered around $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of oversupply—recently, OPEC revised its forecast, expecting global oil supply to slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ production growth, signaling a potential market surplus next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in recent months.
Statistical data confirms this trend: commercial oil stocks are rising in key regions. In the U.S., crude oil inventories increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7, a similar pattern is observed in Europe and Asia. According to analysts from Vortexa and Kpler, a record volume of oil, around 1 billion barrels, is currently stored in tankers worldwide. A significant portion of this floating inventory consists of hard-to-sell oil from countries under sanctions (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), which ports refuse to accept. Moreover, increased exports from several major producers (for example, Saudi Arabia) are also contributing to a temporary market overload. However, experts note a price "floor" around $60 per barrel—short-term market support comes from supply disruption risks, particularly anticipated tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian exports.
Russian Oil Under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks Exit, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the U.S. added the oil companies LUKOIL and Rosneft to the sanctions list, requiring counterparties to complete all transactions with them by November 21. Sources report that LUKOIL has appealed to the U.S. Department of the Treasury for an extension, as it requires more time to fulfill current contracts and sell foreign assets. Previously, the company urgently attempted to sell its international production, refining, and trading network, with reports of a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor; however, in early November, the U.S. Treasury expressed objections, and the deal fell through. As a result, LUKOIL's foreign operations are now in limbo: the company has already had to declare force majeure at its largest overseas production site—the Iraqi West Qurna-2 field. Now LUKOIL is hastily seeking new buyers for its assets and hopes to receive a deferral from U.S. regulators to exit projects smoothly.
Importers of Russian crude in Asia are also restructuring supply chains. In India, the largest state-owned refining company Indian Oil has announced a tender for oil supplies at the beginning of 2024, including Russian ESPO (Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean) and Sokol crude in the list of potential grades. The condition of the tender is that suppliers and shipping ports must not be under U.S., EU, or UK sanctions. Thus, Indian refineries plan to continue purchasing Russian oil through alternative traders, bypassing direct cooperation with Rosneft and LUKOIL. Meanwhile, another Indian refining enterprise, Nayara Energy (partially owned by Rosneft), stated that it would maintain significant volumes of imports from Russia despite the sanctions pressure.
In China, on the contrary, there is a decrease in crude oil purchases from Russia by major players. Fearing secondary sanctions, several major state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapot" refineries have cut imports of crude oil from Russia by nearly half. This situation arose due to the case of the private Shandong Yulong plant, which came under UK and EU sanctions for dealing with Russian crude this year. According to Rystad Energy, the refusal of Chinese companies to source Russian oil affected approximately 400,000 barrels per day—down to 45% of previous supply volumes to China. This has already impacted the market: prices for the Far Eastern ESPO grade have fallen to multi-month lows due to declining Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers have been forced to redirect flows to other buyers and implement more complex sales schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Pressure: Russian Refineries Endure Attacks
Alongside sanctions, oil extraction and refining in Russia are facing physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure deep within the territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been hit, presenting an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the peak of the second wave of strikes (August–October), up to 20% of Russia's total refining capacity went temporarily offline (including planned repairs). Nevertheless, Russian refiners managed to prevent a catastrophic decline: they quickly activated backup capacities at surviving plants and swiftly restored damaged facilities. According to industry data, the total volume of oil refining in Russia from January to October fell by only about 3% compared to the same period last year (to about 5.2 million barrels per day). The output of petroleum products decreased by only 6%, although due to the strikes, Russian authorities had to temporarily limit exports of gasoline and diesel fuel and strengthen air defense around strategic energy facilities.
Kyiv asserts that drone strikes have significantly undermined Russian fuel logistics, cutting domestic gasoline supplies by tens of percent. However, Moscow claims that the market has stabilized: the Russian government has introduced manual price controls and normalized supply, while President Vladimir Putin publicly assured that the country "will not bend under external pressure." Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil sector has shown resilience to shocks, but further escalation of attacks or tightening sanctions could create new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amid Renewable Energy Deficits
Europe is approaching the peak heating season with less comfortable gas storage compared to a year earlier. EU gas storages are not fully filled: by early November, the average storage level stood at around 85% of maximum capacity, whereas they are usually close to 100% at this time. In Germany—the largest gas consumer in Europe—storages are filled at approximately 86%, partly due to the country burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. A decline in renewable energy production (from wind and hydro) has forced German energy producers to increase reliance on gas and coal-fired power plants. Over the first ten months of 2025, gas-fired electricity generation in Germany rose by about 15% compared to the previous year (to 41.6 TWh), while the gas share in generation climbed to 19%—the highest in the last decade. Simultaneously, total generation from wind and hydro across the region dropped by approximately 7% year-on-year, with the shortfall having to be compensated by "dirty" sources: besides gas, Germany increased coal generation by 4%.
The slow pace of filling storage means that Europe is entering winter with a less robust "safety cushion." Experts believe, however, that even in the case of colder weather, the region is not facing acute gas shortages: storage levels are close to historical averages, and record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports allow for the replacement of a significant portion of lost Russian supplies. Nonetheless, the energy market remains fragile. Continued weak winds or interruptions in LNG supplies could lead to spikes in gas and electricity prices for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is ready for winter—recently, the European Commission noted that gas volumes in underground storage and measures for energy savings enable Europe to confidently navigate the upcoming heating period without introducing consumption restrictions, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: The U.S. Grants Hungary an Exemption
On the geopolitical front, there are news of a temporary easing of the sanctions regime. The United States agreed to provide an exemption for its EU ally Hungary, exempting it from certain energy sanctions against Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that over the next 12 months, restrictions will not apply to the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary via pipelines. Effectively, Budapest has received a one-year reprieve, allowing it to continue importing energy resources from Russia despite the overall Western sanctions regime.
Additionally, the U.S. has indefinitely exempted the project to expand Hungary’s Paks-2 nuclear power plant, which is being implemented with the involvement of Russian Rosatom, from sanctions. Officially, Washington explains these steps as an effort to help Hungary ensure energy security and diversification. The decision follows talks between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump. Previously, Orban publicly stated that he had achieved complete exemption for Hungary from sanctions on Russian fuel imports from Washington, although it was clarified that the easing is temporary and pertains to only one year. European partners within the EU have reacted cautiously to the U.S. maneuver, as Hungary remains the most dependent country on Russian energy supplies within the bloc.
Nuclear Energy: Britain Selects Site for First SMR
The United Kingdom has announced an important step in developing nuclear generation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has selected a site for the country's first small modular reactor (SMR) construction. The site will be Wilfa on the Isle of Anglesey in North Wales, where a large, decommissioned nuclear power plant was previously located. The project will utilize British technology from Rolls-Royce SMR and aims to enhance energy security and meet climate goals. The compact reactor in Wales is expected to supply electricity to up to 3 million homes, and its construction will create about 3,000 jobs. The first electricity from the new facility is anticipated to be fed into the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the UK government's choice has caused diplomatic tension. The U.S. had been actively lobbying for an alternative project—a large traditional nuclear power plant from Westinghouse on the same site—and sharply criticized London's decision. The U.S. ambassador described the focus on SMR as "disappointing," arguing that small reactors would not deliver a rapid reduction of high electricity prices in Britain and would delay the commissioning of new capacities. The statement contained unusually harsh wording directed at an ally. Official figures in London countered that the choice of location and construction technology for the nuclear plant is a sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasized that it is not abandoning partnership with the U.S. in the nuclear sector—an alternative site for a potential large nuclear power plant where American designs could be used is also being explored. Experts note that the controversies surrounding the project in Wales reflect the UK’s desire to develop its own innovations in energy while balancing national interests with allied relationships.
New Projects: Gas Field in Suriname Preparing for Development
A new promising source of gas has emerged in the global raw materials market. The state company of Suriname, Staatsolie, announced the recognition of the commercial viability of a large gas discovery on the offshore Block 52. This pertains to the Sloanea field, discovered by the Malaysian conglomerate Petronas, which is the operator of the block. Petronas holds 80% of the project, while the remaining 20% belongs to a subsidiary of Staatsolie. The exploration and production contract was signed back in 2013, and so far, three wells have been drilled with positive results, confirming substantial gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving to the development stage. According to Staatsolie's statement, the development concept for Sloanea involves drilling subsea gas wells, establishing underwater infrastructure, and deploying a floating LNG (FLNG) plant right at the extraction site. Petronas is expected to present a detailed development plan for regulatory approval. If all goes well, an investment decision could be made in the second half of 2026, and Suriname anticipates its first gas volumes by 2030. This project's execution could transform the small country into a new LNG exporter and attract foreign investments into the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Generation Records and Emission Challenges
The segment of renewable energy continues to grow steadily, although climate indicators have yet to improve. According to new data from analytical centers, global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Wind energy is also showing significant growth. As a result, the total installation of new renewable energy capacities in 2025 is forecasted to increase by approximately 10-11%—meaning the world will break the record for expanding renewable generation once again. The growth in clean energy already covers nearly all additional electricity demand: according to estimates from the International Energy Agency, the increase in wind and solar energy production this year compensates for a large portion of the growth in global energy consumption.
Nevertheless, simultaneously, the historical maximum of greenhouse gas emissions is being renewed. The international research project Global Carbon Project has published a forecast that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will increase by another 1.1%, reaching a new record of approximately 38.1 billion tons of CO2. This indicates that even record rates of renewable energy deployment are not yet sufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts urge countries to double their efforts to transition to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap "green" electricity makes the global energy transition practically inevitable; however, more decisive political measures and investments are required to meet climate goals by 2030.
