Key News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector for Friday, January 2, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Major Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 ended for the oil and gas industry amidst contrasting factors: oil prices dropped nearly 20% due to concerns over oversupply, while geopolitical tensions have kept demand for “safe” assets elevated. Analysts believe that a surplus of supply may emerge in the oil markets in 2026, putting pressure on prices; however, localized restrictions (the EU ban on oil products from Russia, attacks on refineries) limit exports and keep prices elevated, particularly for diesel fuel.
Trends in the gas markets are shifting rapidly: Europe is reducing transit through Ukraine and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028 while increasing LNG imports. Asia is also restructuring supply routes in response to trade disputes. Meanwhile, global electricity demand is increasing—fueled by the rapid expansion of data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles—which stimulates investment in renewable energy and energy storage systems.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Outlook: Experts forecast that in 2026, Brent crude oil will trade in the range of $60–65 per barrel. Total supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, leading to a build-up of inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ countries have suspended production increases and maintained previously announced production cuts, with total reductions remaining at around 3.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to ~3% of global demand.
- Demand: The global economy is showing stable growth, meaning oil demand is expected to rise by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Active consumption growth is observed in Asia and the Middle East, while U.S. shale oil production begins to slightly decline.
- Geopolitics: The prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could significantly alter the oil market balance. Lifting sanctions and returning Russian volumes to the market would increase supply, while their continuation would support prices.
Gas Market: Supply and Demand
- Pipelines: Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the closure of the Ukrainian route. The EU plans to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by 2028, leaving only a few transit routes.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are actively increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers. Meanwhile, Asia has sharply reduced LNG imports from the U.S. after tariffs were imposed on American energy. Demand for LNG in China and India continues to grow as these countries seek to diversify fuel sources.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure and storage to strengthen its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to grow through 2035-2045 (reaching 620-650 billion cubic meters per year), stimulating further expansion of gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Electricity consumption in many countries is growing at record rates. In the U.S., consumption may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026 due to the boom in data centers, development of AI, electrification of transportation, and the housing sector.
- Renewable Energy Share: The share of renewable sources in electricity generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, total installed capacity of “green” generation could exceed 4.6 TW (80% of which would be solar power), and notable increases in the share of wind and solar energy are expected in the coming years due to incentive policies and declining technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The deployment of battery systems is gaining momentum. Chinese manufacturers lead in this field—exports of lithium-ion batteries for storage reportedly grew by 75% in 2025. Global investments in energy storage are also increasing and may exceed $60 billion by the end of the year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to IEA forecasts, coal consumption is expected to reach a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5% compared to 2024) and will begin to gradually decline towards the end of the decade as capacities for renewable energy, nuclear, and gas generation increase.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to heavy rains and growth in hydropower, whereas in the U.S., it has increased amid rising gas prices. China, the largest consumer of coal (30% more than the rest of the world combined), showed stabilization in 2025, but a decline in coal's share of the energy balance is expected in the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Countries continue to balance between climate goals and energy security. Even under decarbonization pressure, the coal sector remains important in several regions, creating uncertainty in policies and investments.
Refining and Oil Products
- Diesel Shortage: In 2025, the margin for European diesel increased by approximately 30%, even as oil prices declined. This is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU ban on fuel imports from Russian oil. Limited diesel supply is keeping product spreads high.
- New Capacities: There are no large-scale refinery construction projects planned in developed countries, leading to a structural deficit in the refined products market. Investors anticipate that high margins on products will persist until refining capacities are increased.
- Venezuela: PDVSA is accumulating heavy residues in storage due to sanctions limiting the export of fuel oil. This exacerbates the shortage of bunker fuel and affects regions dependent on Venezuelan exports.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major companies are signing significant agreements. Italian Saipem received a $425 million contract to develop the largest gas field, Sakarya, in Turkey. British Harbour Energy has become the operator of the Mexican Zama field (≈750 million barrels of oil) and completed $3.2 billion deals in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its position.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and took control of the LLOG asset in the Gulf of Mexico. This made the company the operator of the two largest independent projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to influence the energy sector. In Serbia, the NIS refinery (owned by Gazprom Neft) was granted a temporary OFAC license until January 2026, allowing it to resume operations after a shutdown related to U.S. sanctions.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Market Trends: Leading stock indices of energy companies reflect conditions in commodity markets. At the end of 2025, Middle Eastern indices fell following a decline in oil prices (for instance, the Saudi index dropped by 1%), while shares of major oil and gas companies showed slight decreases.
- Regulation and Monetary Policy: Central banks influence the investment climate. For example, in Egypt, a 100 basis points cut in the key rate supported a rise in the stock market (+0.9%), stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures are being discussed in other developing countries.
- Commodity Currencies: The currencies of energy-exporting countries remain relatively stable due to fiscal and budgetary mechanisms. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are supported by revenues from oil and gas sales, which limit volatility amid price declines.
