Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Friday, January 16, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Petroleum Products, Refineries, Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Market.
The global oil and gas markets at the beginning of 2026 are showing signs of increasing supply and persistent volatility. Oil prices remain moderate despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while demand for hydrocarbons is constrained by slowing economic growth. At the same time, there is growing attention to the active expansion of wind energy, solar generation, and the development of other sources of "clean" energy. Investors and market participants are closely analyzing the balance between oversupply of fossil fuels and the extensive transformation of the energy sector.
Global Oil Market
- In January 2026, oil prices are holding in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel for Brent (WTI around $58–60). A sharp price decline (-3%) over the past week was triggered by a softening of the White House's rhetoric on Iran: statements regarding potential U.S. non-intervention sharply reduced expectations of supply disruptions and eased market tensions.
- Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the oversupply continues to put pressure on prices. Oil production in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America is reaching record levels, shifting the balance towards surpluses. Experts forecast average Brent prices around $55–60 in 2026, highlighting risks of further declines. According to the U.S. Energy Department, the average annual price of Brent for 2026 is expected to be around ~$56/barrel.
- OPEC is also confirming demand growth: the January report predicts an increase in world oil consumption in 2026 to 106.52 million barrels per day (+1.38 million b/d from last year). Nevertheless, at the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, quotas remained unchanged—the cartel seeks to balance the market without drastic cuts.
- European regulators continue to exert pressure on supplies from Russia: starting February 1, 2026, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to $44.1 per barrel, below the current Urals benchmark of around $39. Concurrently, the White House is actively managing energy sanctions: the U.S. has already sold its first batch of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million, with the proceeds frozen in foreign accounts (mainly in Qatar).
- Global refineries are responding to the surplus: many oil refineries are reducing the throughput of excess crude, and governments are compelled to adjust fuel policies. For instance, there is a discussion about introducing export quotas on gasoline in Russia to prevent domestic market shortages. In Europe and Asia, exports of petroleum products are increasing, reflecting a balance between energy resources and clean energy.
Global Gas Market
- The European gas market is undergoing a new crisis due to winter cold snaps. In mid-January, the spot price at the TTF hub exceeded $387 per 1,000 cubic meters—a rise of over 11% since the beginning of the week. A deficiency in wind generation (wind contribution has fallen to ~15% of consumption compared to 20% a year earlier) has increased demand for gas-fired power stations.
- European storage levels are at a record low: as of January 13, inventory levels were only ~52% of maximum capacity. Due to a severe shortage of pipeline gas (transit from Russia through Ukraine has been halted), EU countries significantly increased LNG imports: in 2025, 109 million tons of LNG were delivered there (+28% compared to 2024). In January 2026, around 9.5 million tons of LNG is expected (+18% year-on-year) to meet winter needs.
- Significant changes are also noted in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has increased gas imports by ~20% (to 30 million cubic meters per day) through Slovakia and Poland to offset the cessation of transit and declines in domestic production. Turkey and Southeast European countries are negotiating to increase supplies from Azerbaijan and the U.S. for diversification purposes.
- Meanwhile, Russia is diversifying its exports: "Gazprom" supplied 38.8 billion cubic meters to China for the first time in 2025 (via the "Power of Siberia"), surpassing total supplies to Europe and Turkey. This reflects a shift in demand geography: Asia is increasing long-term purchases of Russian gas amid the rise of renewable energy.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
- Renewable energy continues its rapid development. In 2025, China introduced record capacities of wind and solar generation—over 300 GW of new solar and 100 GW of wind power plants. This has allowed clean electricity to outpace demand growth and ensure the first historical reductions in generation at coal-fired power plants.
- The growth of renewable energy occurred amid an overall increase in electricity consumption; however, the trend is clearly tilted toward "green" generation. Many countries are increasing investments in solar and wind: new auctions for the construction of solar and wind power plants in Europe and Asia are being held for hundreds of megawatts of capacity annually.
- The nuclear angle is also noteworthy: Germany is reassessing past decisions and intends to bring back nuclear power. Chancellor F. Merz labeled the phase-out of nuclear energy in 2022 a "strategic mistake" and announced plans for new nuclear reactors to ensure energy system stability.
- In total, the share of non-carbon generation is increasing. The commissioning of hydro, geothermal, and biomass capacities is accelerating, along with the development of energy storage. This strengthens competition with traditional sources and creates favorable conditions for lowering electricity prices in the long run.
Coal Energy and Climate
- As a result of 2025, significant historical dynamics have been noted: generation from coal-fired power plants in China and India has decreased for the first time simultaneously. In China, coal output fell by approximately 1.6%, while in India, it dropped by 3.0% compared to 2024. The last similar decrease was recorded in 1973.
- The decline in coal demand is linked to a record increase in renewable energy and a slowdown in economic growth. In China, the rapid introduction of solar and wind capacities fully compensated for the rise in electricity consumption, leading to the first-ever simultaneous decrease in coal generation in both the largest coal-producing countries.
- As a result, the global energy structure is changing: the share of coal generation is declining, positively impacting greenhouse gas emissions. This is critically important for fulfilling the climate commitments of many countries and tempers the growth of global electricity prices, reducing the risks of energy deficits.
Petroleum Products and Refineries
- The balance in the petroleum products market reflects the phenomenon of fuel oversupply. In many countries, high gasoline and diesel prices are observed due to low stocks and expensive logistics in 2025. Refineries are reducing throughput of excess crude, and regulators are introducing new measures: for instance, Russia is considering introducing export quotas on gasoline to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market.
- In the European Union, conversely, some refineries are refocusing on exporting fuel to developing countries. Stocks of petroleum products in EU countries remain unstable amid the harsh winter, making a further correction in the fuel market likely as the economy recovers. Strong demand in Asia supports prices for fuel oil and diesel, stimulating investments in additional storage and processing capacities.
Global Energy Policy and Deals
- The policy of sanctions and alliances continues to shape the market. The European Union has lowered the price ceiling on Russian oil to $44.1/barrel, while the U.S. has intensified pressure: the U.S. Treasury extended the license for operations with foreign assets of Lukoil, effectively softening sanctions against the oil company.
- Serbia and Hungary are preparing an intergovernmental agreement in the energy sector: plans include the construction of a 113-kilometer oil pipeline "Novi Sad – Aldo" (with a capacity of 5 million tons/year), as well as expanding cooperation in electricity and gas supply (e.g., reserving gas capacities). This is part of regional initiatives to diversify supply.
- Internationally, LNG and pipeline connections are expanding. China and Southeast Asian countries are finalizing long-term LNG contracts from the U.S. and Qatar, while Russia is promoting new gas routes (Central Asia–China, "Nord Stream – 3" in the future) to service customers in Asia and Europe.
Forecasts and Investments
- Analytical agencies indicate a dual nature of prospects. On one hand, OPEC predicts an increase in oil demand (+1.38 million b/d in 2026), but fundamental factors indicate an oversupply in the market. According to EIA data, Brent could "drop" to ~$56/barrel in 2026, with surplus supply leading to an increase in global inventories.
- On the other hand, the investment flow into clean energy is intensifying. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that despite a temporary slowdown in job growth, global investments in wind and solar projects in 2026 will continue to show record growth. There is also growing interest in hydrogen energy and energy storage: corporations are allocating new funds for the development of storage systems and "green" hydrogen.
- Investors are reorienting their portfolios: oil and gas companies are increasing R&D spending in renewable energy and energy efficiency, while Western funds are gradually reducing investments in hydrocarbons. In the securities market, there is interest in the stocks of "green" startups and renewable projects, which could eventually correct the balance of supply and demand in traditional energy markets.
