Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, January 16, 2026: US Industrial Production, Inflation in Russia, Baker Hughes Oil and Gas Data, Financial Reports from Major Public Companies. An Investor Overview.
Friday concludes a busy macroeconomic week. American stock indices are reaching new highs, European markets are striving for growth, while Asian trading is proceeding smoothly after the holiday break. Investors are focused on key economic reports. This evening, data on US industrial production for December will be released, which experts will use to assess economic dynamics and inflation risks. At 7:00 PM Moscow time, the Central Bank of Russia will publish consumer inflation data for December. The energy sector will receive signals from Baker Hughes' weekly report on the number of operating drilling rigs. Major companies are focused on releasing their financial results: several significant banks in the US will report this week.
Macro Calendar (Moscow Time)
- 10:00 — Germany: final consumer price index (CPI) data for December (month-on-month).
- 16:15 — Canada: building permits for new homes data for December.
- 17:15 — USA: industrial production for December and capacity utilization rate.
- 19:00 — Russia: consumer price index (CPI) for December (year-on-year).
- 20:00 — USA: Baker Hughes weekly report on the number of operating drilling rigs (oil & gas).
US Industrial Production
The industrial production index reflects activity in the manufacturing sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Significant fluctuations in this index can influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. If industrial production shows acceleration, it could increase the risk of further rate hikes. Conversely, a weak result may bolster sentiments for a softer policy stance. Investors should pay attention to the divergence between declining industrial output and the condition of the services sector, as this indicates the overall trend in the US economy. Additionally, data on capacity utilization will indicate whether there is an excess or shortage of production resources.
Consumer Inflation in Russia
CPI data from Russia is traditionally viewed through the lens of the Central Bank's decisions regarding interest rates. Inflation in December might show a decline following the New Year shopping, but could still remain in double-digit territory. If annual price growth exceeds expectations, it may increase pressure on the ruble and slow down the pace of monetary easing. Investors should monitor discrepancies between core and total inflation figures, as well as trends in food and service prices. These statistics will largely determine the trajectory of the Central Bank's interest rate in the coming months.
Oil and Gas Sector: Baker Hughes Report
The weekly Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs serves as an indirect indicator of future oil supply. A reduction in the number of rigs in the US suggests a potential decrease in production, supporting oil prices. An increase in drilling activity, on the other hand, may heighten concerns about market oversupply. Investors will pay close attention to the number of rigs in the US and the Permian Basin, as well as the overall dynamics of international energy demand. Changes in the rig count are often accompanied by corrections in Brent and WTI prices.
US Corporate Reports
- PNC Financial (PNC): A large regional bank (Pennsylvania). They will report Q4 2025 results, focusing on the growth of interest margins and the quality of their loan portfolio amid rising rates.
- Regions Financial (RF): One of the leading southern banks in the US (Alabama). Their report will show the macroeconomic impact on deposit rates and lending volumes in the regional economy.
- State Street (STT): A major provider of custody services and asset management (based in Boston). Their results will reflect the state of global equity markets and the volume of inflows into investment funds.
- M&T Bank (MTB): A regional bank (New York) focused on private and corporate clients. They will report on the dynamics of marginal income and provisions for loan defaults.
Corporate Reports in Europe and Asia
On January 16, no significant financial releases from major companies are scheduled in Frankfurt and London. Analysts expect the European earnings season to kick off later in January — primarily from banks and manufacturers. In Asia, the week closes with a gradual recovery of liquidity following national holidays: Friday sees markets open in Japan and China, but no major announcements are expected from components of the Nikkei 225 or Shanghai Composite. Next week may bring the first reports from Asian giants, but today global investors remain focused on the US banking sector.
Russian Companies: Operational Results
- Aeroflot (AFLT): The national airline has published operational data for December. Last month, international flights increased (~+9% YoY in passenger turnover), while the domestic market shrank (~-3%). For 2025, the group's passenger traffic amounted to about 55.3 million people, roughly matching last year's levels. This indicates a recovery in international destinations amid moderate domestic demand.
- Large Russian exchange-listed issuers (from the oil, gas, and financial sectors) will not provide reports on January 16. Reports from Sberbank, Gazprom, and other leaders on MOEX are expected by late January or February. Currently, the dynamics of ruble assets are influenced by external factors (oil prices, dollar).
Investor Notes
- Inflation and Rates Relation. US industrial production data will provide additional signals regarding the Fed's trajectory: acceleration in production growth may tighten monetary policy, while weak figures could create conditions for a softer approach.
- Russian CPI and the Ruble. If annual inflation growth in Russia surpasses expectations, it could weaken the ruble and necessitate a delay in lowering the key rate. The national currency is responsive to New Year and seasonal price effects.
- Oil and Commodities. The Baker Hughes report may adjust expectations regarding oil supplies. A stabilization in rigs implies a contraction in production, which could support Brent prices in the long term. Investors should watch WTI dynamics and commodities.
- Corporate Sector. The results from US banks (PNC, RF, STT, MTB) will set the tone for the financial sector. Strong reports may push bank stocks upward, while problems could trigger sell-offs. Attention should be paid to loan portfolios and interest margins.
