Oil and Gas News and Energy, Saturday, February 14, 2026: OPEC+ Leans Toward Increasing Production from April; Oil on the Defensive
As of February 13, 2026 (exact time not specified), the global energy market has shifted into a reevaluation mode: expectations for a resumption of production growth by OPEC+ in April have heightened pressure on oil prices, while EIA statistics indicated a notable increase in oil inventories in the United States. Concurrently, the IEA maintains a cautious tone regarding demand in its February report and warns of a risk of surplus in 2026. For investors in oil, gas, and energy, this shifts the focus toward refinery margin stability, petroleum supply chains, and the quality of investments in electricity and renewable energy sources.
- Oil: Brent approximately $67/barrel, WTI approximately $62–63/barrel; the market is factoring in higher supply in the second quarter.
- Gas: TTF approximately €32/MWh; Europe enters the injection season with low stocks (exact figure as of February 13 not specified).
- Electricity: Prices remain in three-digit territory for certain zones for delivery on February 14 — grid investments and interconnection rules become key drivers for renewable energy sources.
Oil Market: OPEC+, Demand and 2026 Expectations
The key news of the day for oil revolves around discussions within OPEC+ about returning to production increases from April 2026 following a pause in January-March. The market interprets this as an attempt to "secure" market share ahead of summer demand, even if the balance for the second quarter appears softer than the seasonal norm. Moreover, the IEA estimates global demand growth for 2026 at approximately 850,000 barrels per day, while global supply is expected to increase by about 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. This raises price sensitivity to actual export flows and adherence to quotas, which is critical for hedging strategies and investment in production.
For upstream investments, this indicates higher demands on cost structures and cash flow stability. "Long" projects are scrutinized more rigorously, and the market increasingly favors companies with strong free cash flows and predictable capital policies. Geopolitics (Middle East) remains a source of volatility, although its contribution to prices as of February 13, 2026, is unspecified.
Prices and Indicators on February 13–14
- Brent Oil: approximately $67/barrel.
- WTI Oil: approximately $62–63/barrel.
- TTF Gas (Europe): approximately €32/MWh.
- Henry Hub Gas (USA): approximately $3.17/MMBtu.
- JKM LNG (Asia): approximately $11/MMBtu.
- Newcastle Coal: approximately $115–116/ton.
- Electricity (Nord Pool, February 14 delivery): Germany ~€103.5/MWh; Netherlands ~€95/MWh; France ~€34/MWh; other zones — unspecified.
- EU ETS (carbon): approximately €73/ton CO₂ as of February 12; as of February 13 — unspecified.
USA: Stocks, Refineries, and Signals for Petroleum Products
American EIA statistics set the tone for discussions around the physical market. For the week ending February 6, commercial oil stocks increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels. Refineries processed around 16.0 million barrels per day, with capacity utilization at approximately 89%. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels.
For the "petroleum products" segment, this indicates a diverging balance: with comfortable oil stocks, the market may face local pressures on diesel and jet fuel, especially if seasonal weather increases demand. This is important for investors, as refinery margins and U.S. exports of petroleum products to Europe often act as a buffer for the global fuel market.
Refineries and Petroleum Products: Operational Events and Market Impact
Operational risks in refining are again in focus. In Russia, sources indicate that the Volgograd refinery halted operations following a fire caused by a drone attack; a major primary processing unit was damaged. While this indirectly impacts the global oil market, events like these elevate the risk premium for the regional balance of petroleum products (notably diesel), increase demand for imports, and may support the margins of European refineries.
In Europe, sanctions compliance is reshaping even operational models: TotalEnergies has moved to full operational control over the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands while retaining a share from Lukoil, concentrating raw material procurement and petroleum products sales under one management framework. In Africa, a key signal arises from Nigeria: Dangote has restarted operations at a major atmospheric distillation unit, and a test run of the gasoline block is expected in the coming days — potentially strengthening the import substitution of petroleum products in the region and altering regional oil demand.
Gas and LNG: Europe Between Gas Storage and New Supply Regimes
The European gas market remains sensitive to inventory levels and competition for LNG. TTF holds steady at around €32/MWh; however, more critical for investors is the trajectory of gas storage injections: public estimates indicate that European storage is approximately 35–36% full (exact value as of February 13, 2026 — unspecified). Additionally, the EU has approved a phased ban on Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 (LNG earlier), solidifying Europe's structural dependence on the global LNG market and enhancing the value of flexible supplies.
In Asia, the JKM marker at around $11/MMBtu indicates relatively calm demand, but supply depends on megaproject timelines. Reports indicate a shift in the start of the first phase of Qatar's LNG capacity expansion to late 2026. This supports the premium for "ready molecules" for European and Asian markets, increasing the significance of investments in regasification, gas infrastructure, and electricity flexibility.
Electricity and Renewables: Prices, Grids, and Investment Cycle
On February 14, electricity prices in Europe, according to Nord Pool, remain heterogeneous: Germany around €103.5/MWh, Netherlands around €95/MWh, France around €34/MWh. This variation is explained by the generation structure (nuclear, gas, renewables), the availability of interconnections, and grid constraints. The investment cycle in the energy sector is increasingly focusing on infrastructure: in the UK, subsidy contracts have been awarded for a record volume of solar generation, while the dispute between London and Paris over financing additional interconnection cables underscores that grid projects are becoming a political factor in the speed of renewable energy deployment.
On the continent, the "cost of the grid" is intensifying: in Germany, a mechanism is being discussed where renewable energy developers will bear a greater share of the costs for connection to the electrical grids. For renewable energy projects, this could mean a reconsideration of internal rates of return (IRR) and a more selective choice of sites. France's strategy emphasizes growth in decarbonized electricity (nuclear and renewables) and stimulating electrification of demand, reinforcing structural demand for investments in grids and flexibility (storage, demand-side management).
Coal: Price Benchmark, Asia, and Carbon Risks
Coal remains a "insurance" resource in global energy, particularly in Asia. Newcastle prices hover around $115–116/ton, maintaining relevance for margin-generating electricity and for hedging portfolios. In Europe, coal's role is dictated by CO₂ costs and the energy system regime: sharp movements in the EU ETS prices temporarily alter the economics of coal generation but do not remove long-term limitations on financing coal assets and projects.
Regulatory Landscape, Sanctions, and Outlook
Regulatory and sanctions risks remain systemic for the energy sector. In Europe, the instability of CO₂ prices raises uncertainty for investments in decarbonization, while in the oil and gas sector, changes in sanctions regimes can rapidly redistribute oil flows and feedstock for refineries (including Venezuelan direction). In the coming days, the baseline scenario for oil is consolidation in the range of $65–70 Brent, with OPEC+ supply dynamics dominating the discussion.
Scenarios for the Coming Days:
- Base: Oil within range, gas controlled by weather and storage dynamics, electricity influenced by grid constraints.
- Upward Risk: Infrastructure disruptions and tightening sanctions raise the risk premium for oil and diesel, supporting refinery margins and petroleum product prices.
- Downward Risk: Accelerating expectations for production growth and increasing availability of heavy crude pressure the oil market and upstream investments.
Checklist for Energy Market Participants:
- OPEC+ communications ahead of the meeting on March 1;
- Weekly EIA data on oil, gas, and petroleum products;
- Trends in European gas storage and competitive landscape in the LNG market (as of February 13 — unspecified);
- News on refineries (maintenance, incidents) and petroleum products supply chains;
- Decisions related to grids, interconnectors, and carbon that affect electricity and renewables.
