Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, February 13, 2026: CPI Inflation in the USA and Russia, Central Bank of Russia Rate Decision, Eurozone GDP and Earnings Reports of Major Public Companies. Analyzing the Impact on S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225 and MOEX.
Friday, February 13, 2026, is significant for investors not just because of the date's symbolism, but due to an unprecedented pile-up of macro signals that can rapidly shift expectations regarding interest rates, currencies, and risk appetite. The market will be presented with critical information in a single trading session: CPI inflation in Switzerland and the USA, Eurozone GDP projections, the Central Bank of Russia’s rate decision and subsequent press conference, and finally, the evening CPI for Russia. This convergence of data often exacerbates intraday volatility, heightens sensitivity to data surprises, and triggers rotations across various sectors (finance, real estate, consumer demand, energy infrastructure, and commodity stories).
Economic Events of the Day: Schedule for Moscow
- 10:30 — Switzerland: CPI for January
- 13:00 — Eurozone: GDP (preliminary/revised) for Q4
- 13:30 — Russia: Central Bank rate decision
- 15:00 — Russia: Central Bank press conference
- 16:30 — USA: CPI for January
- 19:00 — Russia: CPI for January
For the global portfolio, this sequence creates an “influence chain”: starting with Europe based on Switzerland and Eurozone data, followed by Russia through the Central Bank’s rate decision and rhetoric, then the key impetus from the USA with its CPI, after which Russian inflation may adjust expectations for the domestic rate trajectory as the day approaches its close.
Switzerland: CPI as a Signal for Safe-Haven Currencies and European Assets
Swiss inflation is traditionally significant not only locally. The Swiss franc is often perceived by the market as a safe-haven currency, and any deviations in CPI from expectations can swiftly impact interest rate expectations and CHF dynamics. For investors, this primarily channels through currency movements: EUR/CHF and the overall sentiment regarding risk-off/risk-on for the European session. If the CPI is higher than consensus, the market tends to price in a tougher trajectory for financial conditions—which could increase pressure on high-value segments in Europe through rising yields. Conversely, a weaker CPI reduces the risk of "rate mispricing" and usually supports cyclical stories, provided the macro backdrop does not deteriorate.
Eurozone: GDP as a Test of Demand Resilience and Interest Rates
The publication of Eurozone GDP is key to assessing how well the economy is adapting to existing financial conditions. For Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader European basket, it is not just the decimal points of growth that matter, but the balance of consumption, investment, and exports. A stronger-than-expected GDP typically increases the likelihood of a “patient” stance toward easing policy, which could drive yields higher and lead to selective revaluation of growth stories. Conversely, a weaker GDP enhances the value of defensive sectors and supports expectations of a softer rate trajectory, often helping segments sensitive to interest rates, including real estate and certain technology stocks in Europe. For investors from the CIS, the currency aspect is also crucial: the response of EUR to USD sets the backdrop for a number of commodity and export stories in emerging markets.
Russia: Central Bank Rate Decision and Press Conference as Drivers for MOEX and the Ruble
At 13:30 Moscow time, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its key rate decision, followed by a press conference at 15:00 that often provides the market with more insight than the numerical figure itself. If the regulator signals a prolonged period of tough conditions, this supports the ruble through interest rate differentials but simultaneously increases the discounting of future cash flows and can dampen internal demand sensitivity. In such an environment, exporters and companies with high foreign currency income often benefit, while segments reliant on the credit cycle (certain developers, consumer stories, and firms with high debt burdens) become more vulnerable.
Should the rhetoric pivot towards a softer trajectory (or if the market receives signals of an earlier pivot), short-term support may flow to “internal demand” and various financial assets; however, this simultaneously raises currency risk and lifts the significance of the evening CPI for Russia: weak disinflation amid soft rhetoric typically heightens uncertainty regarding the ruble and yields.
USA: CPI as the Day’s Main Global Trigger for S&P 500 and Yields
The US CPI, set to release at 16:30 Moscow time, stands as a pivotal release for global risk appetite, the dollar, and the yield curve. The market generally does not trade "inflation itself," but rather deviations from expectations and implications for future rate trajectories. A hotter CPI typically results in rising yields and strengthens the USD, exerting downward pressure on high-duration assets (often tech and various consumer segments) while increasing volatility within the S&P 500. Conversely, a softer CPI supports risk appetite, improves conditions for growing multipliers, and often enhances demand for quality growth.
It is additionally important that some corporate earnings reports in North America are released before the market opens in the USA—providing “micro” news before the CPI, allowing the market to reassess their significance in light of macro surprises. This increases the likelihood of sharp intraday movements in stocks, particularly within investment sectors sensitive to interest rates.
Russia: Evening CPI as Clarification of the Inflation Profile and Rates
The release of Russia's CPI at 19:00 Moscow time concludes the series of macro events. For local assets, this can represent a “second round” of reactions following the Central Bank’s decision: if inflation exceeds expectations, the market often revises real rate expectations and the duration of the tough regime. Practically, this impacts OFZ, the banking sector, credit spreads, and the ruble. If the CPI confirms a slowdown, the chances increase for a more stable rate profile, improving predictability for domestic demand companies and reducing pressure on multipliers.
Corporate Earnings Reports: Pre-Market (USA/Canada/Europe) and Asian Session
Below is a selection of key public companies whose earnings are tied to February 13, 2026. For investors, it is crucial not only to focus on profit figures but also guidance, demand commentary, margin insights, and capital expenditures—these are what shape medium-term sector re-evaluations.
Before the Market Open (Pre-Market) — USA and Canada
- Moderna (MRNA) — focus on revenue from the portfolio, spending rates, and pipeline forecasts; sensitive to overall risk-on after the CPI.
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN) — margins, comparable sales growth, consumer demand commentary, and price pressure.
- Cameco (CCJ) — uranium cycle, contracts, and pricing environment; often perceived as a commodity hedge and beneficiary in the energy transition.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) — demand for auto components and operating recovery quality; sensitive to consumer conditions and financing costs.
- Enbridge (ENB) — dividends, capital expenditures, cash flow stability; “yielding infrastructure” depends on rates through required yield.
- TC Energy (TRP) — tariff base and investment program; investors are focused on cash flow stability and regulatory risks.
- Magna International (MGA) — automotive supply chain, orders, and margins; sensitive to cycles and rates through auto demand.
- Sensient Technologies (SXT) — defensive profile of consumer goods/ingredients, but margins and currency effects are crucial.
- Colliers (CIGI) — real estate and deal market; highly sensitive to rates and funding expectations.
- Essent Group (ESNT) — mortgage insurance; dependent on housing market conditions and credit quality.
Europe: Major Issuers
- NatWest Group (NWG) — banking margin, asset quality, and risk cost; reaction intensifies with changes in rate expectations.
- Norsk Hydro (NHY) — aluminum, energy costs, and global demand; important for assessing the commodity cycle in Europe.
Asia: Key Companies in Japan (Reporting during the Asian Session)
- ENEOS Holdings — energy sector, refining margins, and capital expenditure strategy.
- Dentsu Group — advertising market and corporate budgets; an indicator of business activity.
- Kirin Holdings — consumer sector, cost inflation, and demand.
- Terumo — medical technology and demand resilience in healthcare.
Key Events of the Day: Where to Expect Maximum Volatility
- 13:30–15:00 Moscow Time — Russia: rate and press conference. The market reassesses not only the decision but also the Central Bank's “reaction function” to inflation and exchange rates.
- 16:30 Moscow Time — USA: CPI. This usually serves as the main impulse for yields and the dollar, which is quickly translated into stocks, commodities, and currencies in emerging markets.
- 19:00 Moscow Time — Russia: CPI. This clarifies inflation profiles following the Central Bank's decision and impacts expectations for the duration of the tough regime.
- Reports before the opening of the USA — the pre-market in certain stocks can establish “local trends,” but the CPI can amplify or override them.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
The focus of the day should be on risk management and disciplined exposure, rather than attempting to “guess” a single release. Practically, this means: (1) prior to the Central Bank of Russia's decision, verify currency limits and the portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rates; (2) in the interim before the US CPI, track the tone of the Central Bank's rhetoric and the response of the ruble/yields as an early indicator of sentiment; (3) after the US CPI, prioritize watching yields and the dollar, as these set the direction for global risk-on/risk-off dynamics; (4) following the Russian CPI, evaluate how expectations for the real rate profile shift and which sectors within MOEX appear more resilient in an updated configuration.
From the perspective of the global equity market (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225), the key scenario of the day hinges on whether US inflation presents a “surprise” relative to expectations. Corporate earnings from major issuers provide selective opportunities, but in such a macro-intensive day, it is typically rates, yields, and currency that determine the ultimate risk picture.
