Current Oil, Gas, and Energy News for Tuesday, December 30, 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy, coal, petroleum products, and key events in the global energy sector for investors and market participants.
As 2025 comes to a close, the global energy landscape finds itself at a crossroads of divergent trends. The oil market continues to experience pressure from oversupply and moderate demand, limiting price increases and leading to potential declines in quotes in 2026. In the gas sector, European countries have filled underground storage to nearly maximum capacity ahead of winter, stabilizing prices, while the expansion of LNG projects is set to provide new momentum to the market next year. Simultaneously, a surge in investments in renewable energy is shifting demand dynamics—as wind and solar generation hit new records—while global coal consumption remains significant, particularly in Asia. Global politics, including increasing sanctions pressure and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, maintain high uncertainty in commodity markets, with major importers (China, India) actively ramping up energy resource purchases to ensure global demand. Consequently, the issue of oil surplus and the transition to "clean" energy sources remains central for investors and participants in the global energy sector.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand
The global oil market continues to exhibit signs of oversaturation. Recent decisions by OPEC+ (established in November) have maintained production quotas at existing levels; however, since spring 2025, the alliance has increased production by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day in an attempt to regain market share. This increase in supply is occurring alongside a modest rise in demand—IEA estimates global oil consumption growth for 2025 at under +0.7 million barrels per day, which is significantly lower than previous years' levels. As a result, the long-term balance is shifting toward overproduction.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. Most OPEC+ participants have maintained or increased production at this year's end. The absence of new cuts is expected to lead to a further accumulation of global oil and petroleum product stocks.
- Demand Slowdown. Global economic deceleration and the effects of last year's high prices are dampening oil demand. Concurrently, the shift towards electric vehicles is accelerating, and energy efficiency is increasing, further reducing consumption growth.
- Geopolitical Factors. Increased sanctions against Russia (including new U.S. restrictions targeting the Russian oil sector) partially restrict hydrocarbon exports and trigger temporary price spikes. Simultaneously, the stagnation of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia preserves uncertainty. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to pose risks of supply disruptions and affects investment sentiment.
Consequently, Brent oil remains around $60–62 per barrel (average values for December 2025), approximately 15–20% lower than levels a year ago. Many analysts forecast further price declines: if current trends persist, the average Brent price in 2026 could be around $55–60/barrel. Diesel fuel remains a scarce commodity: due to attacks on refineries and export restrictions on Russian petroleum products, diesel futures in Europe have shown a sustained increase in margins, although the overall crude surplus hampers significant fuel price increases.
Gas Market: High Stocks and Supply Diversification
The European gas sector is preparing for winter with record stocks. As of late December, underground storage across the continent is filled to 85–90% capacity, significantly exceeding average levels of previous years. This has been made possible by unprecedented LNG imports, compensating for the decline in transit from Russia. As a result, spot prices in Europe remained moderate: TTF futures hover around €30/MWh (≈ $9–10 per 1,000 m³), significantly below the peaks of 2022–2024.
- Confident Growth of LNG Supplies. Amid geopolitical risks, Europe is diversifying its supplies: the U.S. and the Persian Gulf have increased LNG exports, while Azerbaijan has ramped up throughput via the "Southern Corridor." Together, these measures have helped fill storage and mitigate winter demand.
- Price Stability. Thanks to high stocks and moderate demand, gas prices in Europe have remained below last year's levels. The reduction in risk premiums is linked to hopes for diplomatic achievements (a possible peace agreement regarding Ukraine), which alleviates the geopolitical component.
- Divergent Trends in Asia and the U.S. In Asia, LNG prices have dropped to several-week lows (around $10–11/MMBtu), aided by record global congestion at LNG terminals and a slowdown in industrial demand in China and South Korea. In the U.S., however, gas prices have stayed above $4/MMBtu due to colder weather and record LNG exports, which sustain additional demand.
Thus, the gas market remains balanced: Europe approaches winter with a reliable supply, while strong exports from the U.S. support global demand. However, the upcoming "LNG boom" (planned 50% export growth by 2030) promises to intensify competition and erode producers' margins in the coming years.
Renewable Energy and the Electricity Sector
2025 marked a significant breakthrough in the "green" energy sector. By the end of the first half of the year, global wind and solar generation exceeded that of coal-fired power plants for the first time. This change occurred due to robust expansion in solar generation (up approximately 30% compared to the first half of 2024) and steady growth in wind energy. Major markets—China, India, and the U.S.—are achieving records in renewable capacity additions.
- Record Growth of Renewables. China added more renewable generation capacity to its grid than the rest of the world combined, contributing to a decline in fossil fuel's share in its energy balance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that net renewables generation will more than double by 2030, with solar panels dominating.
- Decreasing Role of Coal. Despite the influx of renewables, there remains high coal demand in Asian countries (India, China), which currently prevents a global decline in coal consumption. However, in the U.S. and Europe, the share of coal generation is decreasing: weather fluctuations recently led to a temporary rise in gas and coal, but the long-term trend will continue to decline.
- Innovations in Energy. Oil and gas companies are actively developing low-carbon projects. Examples include TotalEnergies' plans to build a synthetic methane plant in the U.S. (in collaboration with Japanese partners) and projects for "green" hydrogen (Sinopec in China, multi-billion dollar investments). Large-scale energy storage projects and electric charging networks are emerging, supporting the electrification of transportation.
The electricity and renewables sector is expected to witness rapid demand growth: global electricity demand is increasing by 4% annually due to the growth of data centers and infrastructure. In the coming months, countries are balancing the speed of the "green" transition with energy security, but the ongoing trend towards expanding solar and wind capacities inevitably restrains long-term hydrocarbon demand growth.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Remains High
Despite the influx of renewable energy, global coal consumption remains significant, particularly in developing regions. China and India—the leading consumers of coal—continue to utilize it for power generation intensively. In the U.S., coal production has increased by the end of 2025 due to rising gas prices and electricity consumption.
- Production Stabilization. Major coal exporters (Australia, Indonesia, Russia) are maintaining high levels of production. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the global coal market is currently characterized by moderate prices and sufficient liquidity.
- Imports in China and India. In 2025, China's coal imports fell by nearly 20% compared to the previous year due to increased domestic capacity and stockpiling (pricing factors). Meanwhile, demand in India continues to rise, stimulating purchases and investments in the coal sector.
- Transitional Fuel Role. Coal remains a foundation of the energy balance in many countries. However, as coal generation shares decline in developed economies and cheaper alternatives emerge, it is losing some of its demand. Support comes from environmental regulations and competition from gas and renewables.
Nevertheless, the coal market continues to receive support from Asian demand, but long-term prospects remain uncertain due to the energy transition. Investors are monitoring the demand and supply balance, as Chinese prices have stabilized at low levels, curtailing import volumes.
Geopolitics and Energy Security
International politics continues to exert a strong influence on energy markets. The tightening of Western sanctions against Russia targets the oil and gas sector: at the end of December, the U.S. introduced additional restrictions against the largest Russian oil companies. Moscow has announced a pivot of supplies “to friendly countries” and is prepared to take retaliatory measures.
- The Ukrainian Conflict. Efforts by the U.S. and allies to negotiate a peace plan remain stalled, sustaining the sanctions regime against Russia. This hampers part of the export from the RF and impacts long-term investment plans for new projects.
- Saudi Arabia and OPEC. Despite calls for market balancing, Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, has yet to announce any additional production cuts. Their strategic alliances are strengthening, and the prospects for new agreements remain ambiguous.
- Energy Policies of Other Countries. The U.S. is exploring options for legalizing oil extraction domestically to lower prices ahead of elections. China and the EU are accelerating clean energy programs, announcing new electrification projects. Free trade agreements (including energy resources) and environmental standards play important roles in shaping long-term demand.
Overall, high geopolitical tension maintains volatility in commodity markets. Investors are closely monitoring changes in sanction policies and diplomatic signals (such as remarks supportive of China and U.S.-RF negotiations), as these could either exacerbate global oversupply (with lifted sanctions and increased supplies) or intensify tensions in the markets.
Asia: China and India Ramp Up Purchases and Domestic Production
Key Asian players are continuing to strengthen their positions in the energy sector. China remains the largest importer of oil and gas, purchasing hydrocarbons at attractive prices. In 2025, thanks to discounts, Russia has increased Urals oil supplies to China and is expanding gas exports. Concurrently, Beijing is ramping up domestic oil production and especially gas production (shale gas, coalbed methane), aiming to reduce reliance on imports.
- Indian Demand. India is actively importing both oil and petroleum products from Russia and the global market. It is gradually changing its supply partners, but at present, it cannot abruptly abandon Russian energy carriers without harming its economy. Simultaneously, New Delhi is investing in oil and gas exploration and extraction, including shale projects.
- Chinese Strategies. Beijing has not imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports and promotes its resource security through government-supported strategic stockpiling. The electric vehicle transition program is in full swing, though currently lags behind India's fleet due to the rapid growth of China's economy.
- Regional Role. China and India are the main drivers of global hydrocarbon demand. Their decisions regarding energy sources (e.g., plans for "green" hydrogen, expanded renewable networks, and local fuel production) significantly impact global trends. Both markets are also major buyers of coal and LNG from various regions worldwide.
As a result, Asia is providing fundamental support for global demand: all else being equal, increased purchases from Russia and competitive local projects ensure Chinese and Indian demand, balancing some of the excess supply from other regions. It is vital for investors to consider that any shifts in the policies of these countries (e.g., a withdrawal from Russian supplies or a deepening of the energy transition) could rapidly reshape the demand and supply balances.
Conclusions and Forecasts
The results of December 2025 illustrate that the global energy sector stands on the brink of a turning point. In the coming months, experts forecast a continuation of moderate price declines for oil (due to rising stocks) and the emergence of a slight positive trend for petroleum products due to diesel shortages. The gas market may remain divergent: Europe is benefiting from abundant stocks and reduced prices, while Asia anticipates greater LNG supply. Meanwhile, the energy transition and geopolitics will play pivotal roles: investors and companies must prepare for potential volatility spikes depending on the success of "clean" projects and diplomatic processes.
