Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Tuesday, December 30, 2025: Russia's PMI, Fed Minutes, U.S. Case-Shiller Index, Oil, and Global Markets: An Investor's Overview
Financial markets at the end of the year remain sensitive to macroeconomic news and corporate releases. On Tuesday, the focus shifts to the Russian economy and monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia will set exchange rates for the New Year holidays), as well as foreign statistical data: PMI for the services sector and composite PMI for Russia (12:00 MSK), the S&P Case-Shiller home price index in the U.S. (17:00 MSK), and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (22:00 MSK). Additionally, the markets will be awaiting the API report on U.S. oil inventories (00:30 MSK on January 1). The corporate story of the day will be complemented by reports from individual companies, while the annual reporting calendar is almost empty.
Macro Economic Calendar (MSK)
- 09:00 — Russia: Services PMI (December) and Composite PMI (December).
- 17:00 — USA: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October).
- 22:00 — USA: Publication of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
- 00:30 (January 1) — USA: API report on crude oil inventories (for the week).
Central Bank of Russia: Exchange Rates
On the last working day of the year, the Bank of Russia will set the exchange rates that will apply throughout the holiday week. A meeting is scheduled for December 30, after which the Central Bank will fix the official rates for the dollar, euro, and yuan for the period from December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026. This step ensures relative stability for the ruble during the holidays, shifting the main risks to global factors such as oil price dynamics and external economic conditions.
Services PMI (Russia)
The publication of business activity indices for the services sector and the composite PMI will allow for an assessment of the current state of the Russian economy. Preliminary data indicates a slowdown: the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in December (indicating a contraction in production). Should there be unfavorable dynamics in industry, the services sector may only show weak growth or stagnation. Investors will be closely watching these indicators, as a recovery in services activity typically supports the stock market and the ruble, while a prolonged downturn might increase pressure on corporate profits.
U.S. Home Price Index (Case-Shiller)
The October figures for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index will be released at 17:00 MSK. A continued slowdown in growth is expected: the annual increase may be around +1.1% (similar to the previous month). In September, the index showed +1.6% (forecast +1.4%), and in October it’s projected to be approximately +1.1% year-on-year. The slowdown in home price growth reduces mortgage burdens and diminishes inflation pressures. For the markets, this signals that moderate growth in real estate alleviates monetary policy and supports demand in other sectors of the economy.
Fed Minutes
At 22:00 MSK, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be published. Analysts expect that these will confirm plans for a gradual reduction in rates in 2026. The key focus will be on the text regarding inflation outlooks and easing timelines. Market participants are poised to scrutinize the protocols for new insights on the pace of tightening or easing policy. The market reaction could be active: any non-trivial remarks regarding inflation and employment will dictate the dynamics of the dollar and bond yields.
Oil Inventories (API)
The API report on oil inventories (00:30 MSK) often sets the short-term price trends for oil. According to API data for the week ending December 19, U.S. oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels after a decline of 9.3 million in the previous week. An increase in inventories indicates a slowdown in demand. Investors will closely compare these figures with the official EIA report; a further increase in inventories could depress oil prices, while an unexpected decline may support them. Long-term trends are influenced by OPEC+ decisions and global demand, hence any signals in the commodity market should be accounted for in trading strategies.
Corporate Reporting
- USA – OBOOK Holdings (OWLS) – a subsidiary of OwlTing (blockchain platform). After the markets close on December 30, OBOOK will publish its financial results for the first half of 2025 and hold a conference call (17:00 Eastern). Investors will assess the company's revenue and profitability against global trends in the technology sector.
- Asia (Hong Kong) – Global Strategic Group Limited (8590.HK) and Capital VC Ltd (2324.HK) will present their annual reports. These companies operate within electronics and finance. Their results may provide insight into the state of the technology and financial sectors in Hong Kong, but the impact on global indices is expected to be minimal.
- Europe – Due to the Christmas holidays, the corporate calendar is empty. Major European companies have already reported earlier or will do so in January, so no surprises in reporting are anticipated.
- Russia – There is virtually no reporting on Tuesday: major issuers have already reported and are preparing for the annual period. The focus is primarily on dividend and operational news, while key indices react to macro data and external factors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): European exchanges are experiencing a lull. There is a dearth of fresh economic data, and trading is sluggish. Investors are looking at global factors (exchange rates, oil, events in Asia), while local factors (Eurozone GDP, ECB) take a back seat.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market may be partially closed or operating on a shortened schedule due to the holidays. The main focus is on external trends: the yen exchange rate and commodity prices. Domestic releases are not significant in this short trading day.
- Russia (MOEX): Activity on the Moscow Exchange is minimal. The focus is on oil and the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia (fixed exchange rates). Energy companies are sensitive to rising oil prices, while the financial sector reflects seasonal conservatism in banking operations.
End of Day: What Investors Should Focus On
- Fed and Inflation: The Case-Shiller and FOMC minutes will clarify the picture regarding inflation and interest rates. Low home price growth (October +1.1% year-on-year) reduces inflationary pressures, allowing the Fed to ease policy in 2026.
- Ruble and Central Bank of Russia: Fixed rates until January 13 mitigate short-term currency risks. The focus is on oil prices: their increase supports the ruble and shares of oil companies, while a drop in oil may weaken the national currency and increase budgetary pressure.
- Commodities: API and EIA reports on oil inventories may cause short-term fluctuations. Disappointing inventory data can pull prices down, while a decline in inventories unexpectedly may push oil prices up. News on precious metals (such as silver exports from China) should also be considered as they may provide additional momentum for commodity markets.
- Liquidity: The end of the year is characterized by low trading activity. Even small news can lead to significant volatility. Investors should exercise caution, diversify their portfolios, and consider the risk of sudden movements at year-end.
