Global Oil and Gas Sector News as of January 18, 2026: Iran, Venezuela, Oil, Gas, Renewables, Coal, Petroleum Products, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
As of January 18, 2026, the current events in the fuel and energy sector present a mixed picture for investors and market participants. Relative de-escalation is observed in the Middle East: following unrest in Iran and threatening statements from the United States, the level of tension is decreasing, temporarily alleviating the risk of oil supply disruptions. Concurrently, cautious hopes for an increase in global supply emerge due to Venezuela's gradual return to the market: the U.S.-backed measures of the new Venezuelan leadership to boost production inspire optimism, although the effects will not be felt immediately. On the global oil market, prices remain pressured by oversupply and moderate demand—Brent quotes hold steady around the mid-$60s per barrel following last week's volatility. The European gas market is experiencing a winter spike in demand; however, record LNG imports and significant storage stocks keep prices from reaching extreme levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: several countries are recording new generation records from renewable sources (RES), although governments are still reluctant to phase out traditional resources to ensure the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, authorities continue to maintain limitations on fuel exports and other stabilization measures to prevent shortages and price spikes in the domestic petroleum market after last year's volatility. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Limited Demand Keep Prices in Check
At the start of 2026, the global oil market demonstrates relative price stability at a lower level. The North Sea Brent crude trades around $64 per barrel, while American WTI hovers at approximately $59-$60. These levels remain about 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual correction following the price peaks during the energy crisis of 2022-2023. The main factors pressuring prices remain oversupply and only modest demand growth. While OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to production limits, a wave of supply from non-OPEC sources is building—primarily due to increased production in North America and the return of volumes from previously sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela. Analysts note that without a significant increase in consumption (e.g., accelerated economic growth and demand in Asia), oil is likely to remain in a relatively narrow price range in the medium term. Short-term price spikes due to geopolitical events are quickly offset: for instance, concerns about a potential military conflict in the Middle East caused price increases mid-week, but subsequent softening of Washington's rhetoric and stable export flows swiftly returned prices to previous levels. Overall, the balance in the oil market currently favors buyers—global oil inventories are gradually rising, and competition for markets is intensifying. In the absence of unforeseen disruptions or new decisive actions from OPEC, the current price environment is expected to remain close to these levels, with moderately low oil prices around the mid-$60s per barrel.
Gas Market: Cold Winter and Record LNG Imports Contain Price Growth
In the gas market, attention focuses on the sharp increase in seasonal demand due to cold weather in the northern hemisphere. In Europe, prolonged winter cold has led to active gas withdrawals from underground storage; EU countries’ reserves have dropped to about 55-60% capacity, compared to over 64% at this time last year. However, the situation remains manageable due to the flexibility of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Mid-January saw European LNG terminals achieve record regasification volumes—daily LNG supplies into the EU gas transport system exceeded 480 million cubic meters, surpassing previous historical highs. This influx helped compensate for the decline in pipeline gas transit and curb price increases. Although spot gas prices in Europe rose by about 30-40% compared to the beginning of the month, they remain far from the peak energy deficiency levels of 2022. Cold weather has also stimulated demand in Asia: key importers in Northeast Asia are ramping up LNG purchases, with Asian spot prices (JKM index) reaching around $10 per MMBtu, marking a six-week high. Nonetheless, the global gas market remains generally balanced: rerouting of supplies between regions, coupled with a sufficient level of global production, is meeting the increased demand. In the U.S., the largest producer, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are holding around $3 per million BTU, supporting the competitiveness of U.S. LNG in external markets. In the coming weeks, the dynamics of gas prices will depend on the weather: if cold conditions persist, high storage loads will continue, but record LNG import rates give Europe a buffer to navigate the winter without critical disruptions.
Iran and Sanctions: Decreasing Tensions and New Supply Factors
The geopolitical landscape affecting energy markets has undergone significant changes. By mid-January, mass protests that erupted in Iran late last year are gradually subsiding, and the risk of immediate military escalation from the U.S. has decreased. Washington's previously harsh rhetoric concerning potential strikes on Iranian facilities has shifted to more measured statements, particularly after Tehran showed a willingness to make certain concessions in addressing internal issues. The American military presence in the region (including the arrival of a carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf) is now seen more as a deterrent than a precursor to immediate conflict. The market's concerns regarding a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or other disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have temporarily eased, removing some geopolitical premiums on oil quotes.
Simultaneously, there have been interesting shifts on the sanctions front. Washington continues to maintain all existing restrictions against the Russian oil and gas sector, and no significant easing of these measures has occurred. Russian energy resources continue to be redirected to alternative markets—primarily Asia—with notable discounts, and Western sanctions remain an important factor in the global trade environment. However, the U.S. stance concerning Venezuela has become more flexible: following political changes in Caracas, U.S. authorities signal a willingness to accelerate the lifting of oil sanctions. In particular, licenses for international oil companies to operate in Venezuela are being expanded—Chevron and other operators will soon be able to increase the export of Venezuelan oil. These steps, supported by the new reformist government in Venezuela, are expected to gradually restore significant volumes of hydrocarbons to the global market. Experts, however, warn that the recovery of Venezuelan oil production will be gradual: years of insufficient investment and sanctions have severely limited the country's production capacity. Nevertheless, the prospect of increased supply from Venezuela is helping to bolster consumer confidence and dampen speculative sentiment, which in turn limits price growth. Thus, geopolitical risks at the beginning of 2026 have slightly adjusted: Middle Eastern tensions are easing, and Western sanctions showcase selective flexibility, creating a more favorable backdrop for the global energy market than previously expected.
Asia: India and China Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing pressure from Western countries urging a reduction in cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, Delhi has recently decreased its purchases of Russian oil and gas somewhat. However, a sharp withdrawal from these energy resources is deemed impossible due to their key role in national energy security. The country continues to receive raw materials from Russian companies on preferential terms: traders report that the discount on the Russian Urals grade for Indian buyers reaches $4–5 relative to Brent prices, making these supplies very attractive. As a result, India maintains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil while simultaneously increasing its purchases of petroleum products (for example, diesel) to meet growing domestic demand. Concurrently, the Indian government is accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on imports in the future. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced a program to develop deep-water oil and gas production on the shelf: the state company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Initial results are considered encouraging, instilling hope for discovering new large deposits. This strategy aims to long-term achieve India's goal of energy self-sufficiency.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to increase energy consumption, combining import growth with enhancing domestic production. Beijing has not supported Western sanctions against Moscow and leveraged the situation to significantly increase purchases of Russian energy resources on favorable terms. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China’s imports of oil and gas increased by 2–5% compared to the previous year, exceeding 210 million tons of oil and 250 billion cubic meters of gas, respectively. Growth rates have slowed somewhat compared to the surge in 2024, but remain positive. Concurrently, China is setting records for domestic production: last year, national companies produced over 200 million tons of oil and 220 billion cubic meters of gas, marking a 1–6% increase over the year-ago levels. The state invests significant resources in the development of hard-to-reach deposits, the implementation of new extraction technologies, and improving the yield of mature oil fields. However, despite all efforts, China remains import-dependent: around 70% of its oil consumption and about 40% of gas must be imported. In the coming years, these ratios are unlikely to change significantly due to the scale of the economy and energy intensity. Thus, India and China—two key consumers in Asia—continue to play a crucial role in global raw material markets, skillfully maneuvering between the need to import significant volumes of fuel and the desire to develop their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewables and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift towards clean energy is accelerating rapidly, setting new benchmarks in energy markets. By the end of 2025, several countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. In Europe, total solar and wind power generation for the year surpassed production from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time, solidifying the trend of shifting the balance in favor of "green" energy. In Germany, Spain, the UK, and several other countries, the share of RES in electricity consumption exceeded 50% on specific days thanks to the commissioning of new capacities. In the U.S., renewable energy also reached historic highs: at the beginning of 2025, more than 30% of all generated electricity came from RES, and the cumulative generation from wind and solar surpassed that of coal-fired plants. China remains the world leader in the scale of "green" construction—in 2025, the country commissioned tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, renewing its own records for clean energy production. Major oil and energy companies are actively diversifying in response to these trends, directing significant investments into RES projects, hydrogen technologies, and energy storage systems.
However, despite the impressive progress in clean energy, governments and businesses are still required to balance this with traditional generation. The year 2025 clearly demonstrated that in conditions of peak demand or adverse weather (e.g., during winter with low wind and solar output), reserve fossil fuel capacities remain critically important for reliable energy supply. European countries that have reduced their coal share in recent years temporarily reinstated some coal plants during cold spells, while gas plants took on increased loads amid a lack of wind. In Asia, the maintenance of base coal generation prevents disruptions in energy supply during consumer spikes. Thus, the world is moving toward cleaner energy at a record pace, but the era of complete carbon neutrality has not yet arrived. The transitional period is characterized by the coexistence of two systems: the rapidly growing renewable sector and the traditional thermal sector, which mitigates risks and smooths seasonal and weather-related fluctuations. The strategy of many countries involves the simultaneous development of RES and modernization of traditional infrastructures—this approach aims to ensure the resilience of energy systems en route to a carbon future.
Coal: Strong Demand Supports Market Stability
The global coal market maintains relative stability despite global decarbonization trends. Demand for coal remains high, especially in Asian countries. In China and India—the largest coal consumers—this energy source continues to play a key role in electricity generation and the metallurgical industry. According to industry reports, global coal consumption in 2025 held steady around historical highs, only slightly decreasing (by about 1–2%) compared to the record 2024 year. The growth in coal use in developing economies offsets the reduction of its share in energy-deficient Europe and North America. Many Asian states continue to commission modern coal-fired power plants with enhanced efficiency to meet the growing energy demand of populations and industries. On the pricing front, the situation is calmer than during the peak of the energy crisis: in early 2026, energy coal prices on global markets are around $100–110 per ton, significantly lower than the peaks of two years ago. The easing of prices is linked to increased supply—major exporters (Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia) have ramped up production, while European demand decreases with the introduction of RES. In Europe, a gradual phase-out of coal continues: a symbolic event was the closure in January of the last deep coal mine in the Czech Republic, marking the end of 250 years of coal mining history in the country. Nevertheless, at the global level, coal remains an important element of the energy balance. The International Energy Agency forecasts a plateau in global coal demand over the next few years, followed by a gradual decline. In the long term, tightening environmental policies and competition from cheap RES will limit the development of the coal industry; however, in the short term, the coal market will continue to rely on stable high demand from Asia.
Petroleum Products and Refineries: Growing Refining Capacities Stabilize Fuel Markets
The global petroleum product market entered 2026 without major upheavals, demonstrating balance due to the expansion of refining capacities and adaptations of logistics chains. After the acute diesel fuel and other petroleum product shortages experienced during the energy crisis, the situation has normalized: supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel on the global market are sufficient to meet demand in most regions. Leading refineries worldwide operate at high utilization rates, and refining margins have stabilized at average levels.
- Launch of New Refineries: In 2025, several large refining facilities were commissioned, significantly increasing total capacities. Notably, Africa's Dangote Refinery complex in Nigeria began operations, capable of processing up to 650,000 barrels of oil per day, enhancing local fuel security and reducing import dependence for several countries in the region. New projects also commenced in the Middle East and Asia: modern refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, China, and India added hundreds of thousands of barrels per day to global refining output. These new capacities have helped eliminate supply bottlenecks and create excess fuel reserves in the world market.
- Restructuring Trade Flows: Sanction restrictions and changes in demand structure have led to a redistribution of petroleum product flows between regions. The European Union, having ceased direct imports of Russian petroleum products, has redirected its fuel procurement towards sources in the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. Concurrently, Russia has increased its exports of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil to friendly countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, partially replacing its previous European markets. This geographical transformation of trade is proceeding relatively smoothly: fuel shortages in major consumption centers have been avoided, and prices for gasoline and diesel in Europe and North America even decreased by late 2025 compared to peak values from a year ago.
- Price Stabilization for Consumers: Thanks to increased refining and the establishment of new supply chains, petroleum product prices at gas stations remain within acceptable ranges. In the U.S. and Europe, the average cost of gasoline and diesel fuel is below early 2023 levels, easing inflationary pressure on the economy. Developing countries also benefit from greater fuel availability: improved supply conditions have allowed them to avoid sharp price spikes even amidst crude oil volatility. Governments in many countries continue to closely monitor domestic fuel markets—if necessary, subsidy mechanisms or temporary export restrictions are applied to protect consumers from price shocks. As a result, a combination of factors—from new refinery launches to flexible policies—has led the global petroleum product market to enter 2026 in a state of relative equilibrium. For major fuel companies, this means a more predictable market environment, while for end consumers, it translates into stable prices and reliable supplies of gasoline, diesel, and other fuel types.
