Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Wednesday, December 17, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex on December 17, 2025, draw the attention of investors, market participants, and major fuel companies due to their contradictory nature. The fall in oil prices to multi-year lows coincides with a sharp increase in gas prices in the U.S., creating a mixed picture in global energy markets. The world oil market is under pressure from oversupply and sluggish demand, with Brent quotes hovering around $60 per barrel (minimums for the last four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Simultaneously, the gas sector shows divergent trends: in Europe, prices remain moderate due to high reserves, while in America, wholesale gas hits record highs, provoking a local energy crisis. At the same time, against the backdrop of ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are plummeting, prompting authorities to continue measures to support the domestic fuel market. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—renewable energy is reaching record levels in many countries, although states are not yet abandoning traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Pressure Prices
Global oil prices have continued to decline, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while the American WTI is near $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the ongoing market correction following price peaks in previous years. The dynamics of prices are influenced by several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance, in general, increases supply in the market despite the falling prices. Key participants in the agreement have partially restored production volumes: in December 2025, the total quota has been raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (as part of a previously announced plan). Although OPEC+ is taking a pause for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand decline, the current production level remains high.
- Increased Supply Outside OPEC: In addition to the alliance countries, other producers have also ramped up production. In the U.S., oil production has reached record levels (about 13 million bbl/day), with significant export growth from Latin American and African countries. Together, this adds additional oil to the market and reinforces the oversupply trend.
- Slowed Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption growth has slowed down. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand growth in 2025 to be less than 1 million bbl/day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC estimates around +1.3 million bbl/day. The reasons include decreased economic activity in several countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices from previous years, which have stimulated energy savings. An additional factor is moderate industrial growth in China, which limits the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: The market continues to be influenced by uncertainty in international relations. On one hand, the continued sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the overall oversupply dilutes this effect. On the other hand, occasionally emerging signals of possible dialogue (for example, discussions in the U.S. about plans to reintegrate Russia into the world economy after resolving the conflict) somewhat reduce the geopolitical "premium" in oil quotes. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp jumps, lacking momentum for either a new rally or a crash.
The combined impact of these factors creates an excess of supply over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of surplus. Exchange prices remain significantly below the levels of previous years. Some analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the U.S.
The gas market exhibits mixed trends. Europe and Asia enter winter relatively confidently, while North America is experiencing an unprecedented price surge in fuel. The situation in the regions can be summarized as follows:
- Europe: EU countries have entered the winter season with high gas reserves. Underground storage facilities were approximately 75% full in early December (compared to about 85% a year ago). Thanks to this buffer and stable LNG inflow, spot prices remain low: quotes at the TTF hub dropped below €30/MWh (≈$320 per thousand cubic meters). This situation is favorable for European industry and power generation on the cusp of peak winter demand.
- U.S.: The American gas market, conversely, is undergoing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub hub have exceeded $5.3 per million BTU (≈$180 per thousand cubic meters)—more than 70% higher than a year ago. This is due to record LNG exports: significant volumes of American LNG are going abroad, provoking a shortage in the domestic market and rising tariffs for power plants and households. Under-investment in gas infrastructure has worsened the issue of separating domestic and external markets. As a result, several energy companies have been forced to increase coal usage to control costs—expensive gas has temporarily raised the share of coal generation in the U.S.
- Asia: In key Asian markets, gas prices remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are secured with long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created a rush in demand. In China and India, gas consumption growth remains moderate due to restrained economic growth; hence competition with Europe for LNG shipments has not intensified. However, analysts warn that a sharp cold snap or accelerated economic growth in China could change the balance: increased demand in Asia could once again raise global gas prices and intensify competition for LNG between East and West.
Thus, the global gas market presents a dual picture. Europe currently enjoys relatively low prices and comfortable reserves, while in North America, expensive gas has created local challenges for energy supply. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could alter this balance in the coming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressures and Cautious Signals for Dialogue
The geopolitical sphere continues to experience tensions surrounding Russia's energy resources. In late October, the European Union approved the 19th sanctions package, further tightening restrictive measures. In particular, any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation, or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian oil and gas companies have been completely prohibited—closing the last loopholes for exporting raw materials to Europe. A 20th sanctions package by the EU is expected to be introduced in early 2026, which is projected to touch on new areas (including the nuclear sector, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), further complicating trade operations with Russia.
Simultaneously, on the diplomatic horizon, the first hints of a potential compromise have emerged. According to insiders, the U.S. has recently conveyed a series of proposals to European allies regarding the gradual reintegration of Russia into the world economy—of course, conditional on achieving peace and resolving the crisis. While these ideas remain unofficial and no sanctions relief has been enacted, the mere existence of such discussions indicates a search for dialogue pathways in the long term. Currently, the sanction regime remains strict, and energy resources from Russia continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited number of purchasing countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of real peace initiatives could improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a lack of progress threatens new limitations for the Russian energy sector.
Asia: India and China Between Import and Domestic Production
- India: Facing Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly states that it cannot sharply reduce imports of Russian oil and gas, as they are crucial for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favorable terms: Russian suppliers offer Urals crude with significant discounts (estimated at least $5 below Brent prices) to maintain their market share in India. As a result, India continues to buy Russian oil in large quantities at discounted prices and is even increasing its imports of oil products from Russia to meet rising demand. Simultaneously, the government is taking steps to reduce future dependency on imports. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields. Under this program, the state company ONGC began drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, while the initial results look promising. This "deep-water mission" aims to uncover new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its energy independence goal.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also ramping up energy resource purchases while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined the sanctions and takes the opportunity to acquire raw materials at reduced prices). Analysts estimate that in 2025, total oil imports in China will increase by approximately 3% compared to the previous year, while gas imports are expected to decrease by ~6% due to increased domestic production and moderate demand. Simultaneously, Beijing is investing significant funds in developing domestic oil and gas extraction: in 2025, oil production in China grew by ~1.7%, and gas production increased by over 6%. Increased domestic production helps partially satisfy economic needs but does not eliminate the need for imports. Given the vast scale of consumption, China's dependence on external supplies remains high: it is expected that in the coming years, the country will import no less than 70% of its oil and about 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for ensuring imports with developing their resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is accelerating rapidly. Many countries are seeing records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In Europe, the total generation from solar and wind power plants exceeded production from coal and gas-fired plants for the first time in 2024. This trend has continued into 2025: due to the commissioning of new facilities, the share of "green" electricity in the EU is steadily growing, while the share of coal in the energy mix is declining again (after a temporary increase during the 2022–2023 crisis). In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historical levels—over 30% of total generation comes from RES, and the total volume of electricity generated from wind and solar in 2025 surpassed generation from coal plants for the first time. China, a leader in installed "green" capacities, annually launches dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, continuously updating its generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are pouring enormous funds into the development of clean energy: according to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed toward RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new goal—to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, which sets an extremely high pace for phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation for stability. The growth in the share of solar and wind energy creates challenges for balancing the grid during periods when RES are unavailable (at night or during calm weather). To cover peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal-fired power plants are being used in some cases. For instance, in certain European countries last winter, there was a need to temporarily ramp up generation at coal plants during windless cold weather—despite environmental costs. Similarly, in the fall of 2025, high gas prices in the U.S. forced energy providers to temporarily increase coal generation. To enhance the reliability of power supply, the governments of many countries are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will surpass coal in global electricity generation, but in the coming few years, there remains a necessity for supporting conventional power plants as insurance against disruptions. In other words, the global energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a fine balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: A Stable Market Amid Persistently High Demand
The accelerated development of renewable energy has not diminished the key role of the coal industry. The global coal market remains a significant and important segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal is consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intense consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, is burning it at nearly record rates in 2025. Chinese mines extract over 4 billion tons of coal annually, meeting most of the domestic needs; yet this volume is barely sufficient during peak load periods (e.g., during summer heatwaves with widespread air conditioning use). India, with its substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its coal consumption: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising along with its economy. Other developing countries in Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to build new coal plants to meet the growing demand from the population and industry.
The supply in the global market has adapted to this sustained demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have significantly increased their production and exports of thermal coal in recent years. This has helped keep prices at relatively stable levels. Following price surges in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to the usual range and have been fluctuating without sharp changes in recent months. The balance of supply and demand appears stable: consumers continue to receive fuel, and producers see stable sales at competitive prices. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for the energy supply of billions. Experts estimate that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation—especially in Asia—will retain significant relevance, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the pillars of global energy.
Russian Oil Products Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, emergency steps have been taken in the last quarter to normalize the pricing situation. Back in August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline in the country reached new record highs, exceeding 2023 levels. The reasons for this were a surge in summer demand (tourist season and harvesting campaign) and limited fuel supply due to unscheduled refinery repairs and logistical disruptions. The government was compelled to strengthen market regulation by swiftly implementing a range of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban on Fuel: A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel was introduced in September and subsequently extended until the end of 2025. This measure applies to all producers (including major oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Control: Authorities have tightened monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries have been instructed to prioritize meeting domestic market needs and avoid speculative resale on exchanges between suppliers. Simultaneously, efforts are underway to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (gas station retail networks) to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Subsidies for the Industry: Incentive payments have been preserved for fuel producers. The budget compensates oilmen for part of the lost revenue from supplies to the domestic market (a damping mechanism), which motivates them to direct adequate volumes of petroleum products to gas stations within the country, despite lower profitability compared to exports.
The combined effect of these measures is already yielding results—the fuel crisis was largely contained in the fall. Despite record exchange quotes for gasoline, retail prices at gas stations have risen much more slowly (about 5% since the beginning of the year, which roughly corresponds to overall inflation). A shortage at gas stations has been avoided; the network of filling stations is adequately supplied with the necessary resources. The government is prepared to further extend export restrictions if necessary (considering, in particular, the extension of the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until February 2026) and to promptly deploy fuel reserves to stabilize the market. Monitoring of the situation is maintained at the highest level—relevant departments and the Deputy Prime Minister oversee the issue, assuring that every effort will be made to ensure stable fuel supply to the domestic market and maintain prices for consumers within acceptable ranges.
