Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of November 18, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, EU Sanctions, Production, Exports, Fuel Market, Power Generation, Renewable Energy, and Coal Sector. Analytics for Investors and Energy Sector Companies.
As of mid-November 2025, global energy markets are exhibiting mixed dynamics. Oil prices are under pressure due to an oversupply: Brent is hovering around $64 per barrel (WTI approximately $60), close to the lows of recent months. The rise in production by OPEC+ and its partners is outpacing moderate demand, leading to a surplus of oil in the market. At the same time, the European gas market is experiencing a price lull – exchange prices have fallen to one-and-a-half-year lows (around $380 per thousand cubic meters) due to full storage facilities and mild weather conditions. In Russia, unprecedented measures have been implemented to stabilize the domestic fuel market following the summer spike in gasoline prices. Geopolitically, there is increasing sanctions pressure: the European Union and the U.S. are discussing new restrictions on oil and gas exports, although their implementation faces difficulties. This review covers the latest news and trends in the oil and gas markets, the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, as well as developments in the coal, power generation, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market
Bearish sentiment predominates in the oil market this November. Following a brief increase last week, prices are once again declining: Brent is trading in the range of $60–65 per barrel, indicating weak demand. Investors note that global oil supplies have risen significantly more than consumption: since the beginning of the year, total supply has increased by about 6 million barrels per day (primarily due to increased production by OPEC+ countries), while demand growth has been much more modest. As a result, global fuel inventories are high, and the market is facing a surplus, which is exerting downward pressure on prices.
Additionally, uncertainties regarding Russian oil exports present another factor of concern. At the end of last week, a drone attack temporarily disrupted operations at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, causing a brief spike in prices; however, the swift restoration of operations alleviated tensions – by the start of the new week, Brent returned to a downward trend around $64. Thus, even geopolitical incidents currently have only a short-term impact on the market, yielding to fundamental factors. Market participants are also assessing the impacts of sanctions: despite the tightening of Western restrictions, supplies from Russia remain stable due to the redirection of flows to alternative markets and discounts for buyers.
- OPEC+ Policy: Exporters from the OPEC+ alliance remain committed to plans for a gradual recovery in production that they have been implementing since the beginning of the year. By the end of 2025, countries have fully returned most of the volumes that were previously voluntarily curtailed back to the market. Recently, OPEC+ representatives stated they retain the freedom for further voluntary adjustments to production in 2026 – meaning they are prepared to cut supply again if the market situation deteriorates (for instance, if prices fall below acceptable levels). Meanwhile, key producers have indicated they will not rush into new production cuts as long as prices remain above critical thresholds ($50 and above).
- Demand and Inventories: Weak macroeconomic conditions are inhibiting oil consumption growth. The slowing economy in China, high interest rates in the U.S. and Europe, and other factors are limiting global demand for oil. Nevertheless, certain segments show robust demand: the winter heating season is beginning, supporting demand for petroleum products, and the global airline sector and trucking are seeing gradual increases. Last summer's record-high demand (tourism, automotive transport) prevented prices from plummeting further. However, due to inventory accumulation in key regions (the U.S., China, Europe) and increased exports by some supplier countries (including Iran and Venezuela), price pressures remain.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: Global risks are still present, but their influence on prices is limited. Armed conflicts and tensions in the Middle East create a moderate price premium, yet significant disruptions in supply are not occurring. Western countries continue to escalate sanctions pressure on the Russian oil sector: the European Union approved a ban on the import of petroleum products made from Russian oil in third countries during the summer (with certain exceptions), which will come into effect in February 2026, effectively closing loopholes for supplies to Europe. Furthermore, new measures are being discussed, including restrictions against any oil refineries purchasing Russian oil in recent months, although implementing such ideas faces technical challenges and resistance from parts of the industry. The U.S. administration has taken a tougher stance: President Donald Trump has expressed readiness to support a bill imposing sanctions on countries trading with Russia and has threatened similar measures against Iran. While such radical steps have not yet been realized, the rhetoric itself adds to long-term uncertainty for oil exporters. Nevertheless, at present, Russian oil continues to find its way to global markets – analysts note that buyers in Asia and the Middle East are confidently absorbing volumes redirected from Europe, even if this requires additional discounts.
Natural Gas Market
The natural gas market remains relatively stable this autumn. In Europe, gas prices have dropped to the lowest levels in the past ~18 months: approximately $370–380 per thousand cubic meters on the TTF index, significantly below the peaks of last winter. This situation is attributed to a combination of comfortable supply and moderate demand. Storage facilities in European countries were filled earlier than ever and remain filled to about 90% as of mid-November, providing a cushion for the beginning of the heating season. Mild weather in Europe during the first half of autumn and an increase in renewable energy generation have also reduced the need for gas withdrawals from reserves, helping to maintain market stability.
The stability is further supported by a steady inflow of LNG imports. European importers continue to actively receive liquefied gas from various sources – from the U.S. and Qatar to Africa and Asia. New liquefaction projects in the U.S. and the Middle East are expanding global capacities, creating a stock of supply. Alternative pipeline supplies remain stable: Norway, Algeria, and other North African countries are consistently exporting gas to the EU, compensating for the near-total cessation of direct imports from Russia. The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is now minimal, while supplies through the southern corridor (via Turkey and the Balkans) are limited and only meet the needs of certain Eastern European countries. In total, the diversification of sources allowed Europe to get through last winter without fuel shortages, and at this point, the market views the winter of 2025/26 with relative confidence.
- European Balance: Thanks to timely stockpiling and reduced consumption, the European gas balance appears stable. According to industry monitoring, by the start of the heating season, underground gas storage in the EU was filled nearly 95%, which is higher than the multi-year average. Gas consumption in Europe, which decreased in 2022–2023 due to the energy crisis, stabilized and even showed slight growth in 2025 (by the end of the first half, +5% year-on-year, supported by industrial recovery and hot weather). However, the current level of demand remains below pre-crisis levels – enterprises are implementing energy efficiency measures, and households are conserving energy due to previously high prices. This means that even with moderate demand growth, current supplies should be sufficient to handle winter peaks.
- Global LNG: The liquefied natural gas market continues to play a key role in meeting the needs of Europe and Asia. In 2025, new LNG export capacities are coming online – both in the U.S. and in Gulf countries – increasing the volume of fuel available on the market. Supplier competition is intensifying, and spot prices for LNG remain relatively low this season. Asian markets are currently showing balanced demand: in Northeast Asia, LNG inventories have also built up, and the absence of extreme cold early in winter is not triggering price spikes. This allows for additional tankers to be directed to Europe if necessary. Additionally, major consumers like China are entering into long-term LNG supply contracts, laying the groundwork for future price stability.
- Russia and New Routes: The Russian gas industry continues to pivot exports eastward. Supplies of pipeline gas to Europe have fallen to historic lows (effectively preserved only through the remaining Ukrainian corridor and the "Turkish Stream" for certain countries), while exports to Asia are increasing. In 2025, Gazprom ramped up throughput via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China to record levels, approaching design capacity to meet the growing demand of Chinese consumers. Concurrently, Russia is developing its LNG projects on the Arctic shelf: at the end of last year, the first phase of the Arctic LNG-2 plant was launched, and new capacities oriented mainly toward Southeast Asian markets are gradually coming online in 2025. These steps aim to compensate for the lost European market and provide work for production companies. While transporting gas to new regions is associated with logistical and pricing challenges, Russia is strengthening its presence in the Asian direction, entering into long-term contracts with China, India, and other importers.
Domestic Fuel Market in Russia
Following the summer crisis in the domestic petroleum products market, the situation has gradually normalized. Recall that at the end of summer, gasoline prices in Russia sharply increased, reaching record levels due to supply shortages and rising export prices due to a weak ruble. To stabilize the situation, the government had to introduce stringent emergency measures: starting in late July, a temporary ban on gasoline exports and some diesel fuel supplies was enacted to redirect maximum volumes to the domestic market and saturate gas stations. Initially, the restrictions applied to traders and small refineries, but were later extended – the ban on gasoline exports was also extended to major producers, and diesel fuel exports outside the Eurasian Union were limited to direct oil companies, contingent on control over domestic supplies.
By mid-November, it can be stated that the measures taken have had a tangible effect. Wholesale fuel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange have significantly retreated from peak September values, and retail prices at gas stations have stopped rising. According to Rosstat, in the first half of November, average gasoline prices in Russia even showed a slight decrease – the first drop in over a year. In regions hardest hit during the summer (for example, in southern subjects and Crimea), supply has normalized: shortages of Ai-95 and Ai-92 gasoline have been eliminated, and reserves are sufficient for current consumption. The government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline exports until December 31, 2025, to ensure market stability during the autumn-winter period. Concurrently, authorities are exploring long-term mechanisms to prevent fuel crises – ranging from adjustments to the damping formula and excise tax policy to encouraging oil refiners to increase fuel production during the off-season.
- Crisis Measures: To overcome the fuel crisis, Russian authorities have deployed several instruments. A complete ban on automotive gasoline exports has been enacted, and diesel fuel and fuel oil exports have been significantly restricted. Oil companies are instructed to prioritize meeting domestic market needs. Minimum sales standards for fuel through exchanges have also increased to ensure that small wholesalers and independent gas stations have access to resources. These measures were accompanied by agreements with large oil refineries to increase oil processing and deliveries to the domestic market, especially in remote regions with fuel shortages.
- Market Stabilization: By October-November, the trend shifted – price growth halted. Exchange prices for "Regular-92" and "Premium-95" gasoline decreased from September's highs by double-digit percentages. Following wholesale trends, prices at gas stations began to stabilize: several regions have reported reductions in gasoline prices of 10–30 kopecks per liter. Gas station networks report sufficient fuel reserves, elimination of queues, and a return of demand to normal levels. As a result, the domestic petroleum products market is entering winter in a balanced state, without signs of shortage.
- Prospects and Regulation: Unprecedented restrictions on fuel exports are temporary. The official ban on gasoline exports is in effect until the end of 2025, and the government will decide on its extension or cancellation based on the situation. Concurrently, long-term measures are being considered: the introduction of a protective tariff on the export of petroleum products, which would automatically restrict exports during spikes in global prices; improvements to the damping compensation mechanism for oil producers to make supplying to the domestic market more attractive; and increasing reserve fuel stocks in government oil depots. Modernizing refineries and supply logistics to remote regions is also a focus, aiming to eliminate local shortages. Energy sector participants expect that a combination of market incentives and government control will help prevent a repeat crisis next spring and summer.
Government Policy and Cooperation
Russian authorities are continuing to implement the long-term energy strategy, adapting the fuel and energy complex to the new realities of sanctions pressure and global energy transition. In 2025, the focus is on supporting the oil and gas sector through investment incentives and expanding cooperation with friendly countries. Despite external limitations, the government aims to ensure sustainable sector development and access to new sales markets.
- Tax Incentives for the Sector: The Russian government is currently completing the preparation of a package of measures aimed at easing the tax burden on oil and gas companies and stimulating the development of new fields. Among the discussed measures are the expansion of the application of the profit-based tax (PBT) to new oil and gas extraction projects, extension of benefits on the mineral extraction tax (MET) for hard-to-reach and depleted fields, and temporary reductions in export duties on raw materials for projects in priority regions. These concessions are expected to come into effect in 2026 and help companies in the sector sustain investments even amid sanctions and limited access to foreign capital.
- Diversification and New Projects: One of the strategic objectives is to diversify the energy sector. The government is encouraging the development of new segments – from liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and petroleum chemistry to hydrogen energy and renewable energy equipment manufacturing. In 2025, funding for LNG export infrastructure is continuing (construction of terminals in the Far East and North), as well as projects for the extraction of rare earth metals and components essential for renewable energy technologies. Concurrently, Russia is investing in its own extraction and processing technologies to reduce dependence on imported equipment and services. This reorientation aims to enhance the resilience of the fuel and energy complex in the face of external constraints and to increase competitiveness in the global energy resources market.
- International Cooperation: Amid restrictions on interaction with Europe, Russia is actively strengthening energy ties with partners in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Throughout the year, new agreements have been reached on oil and petroleum products supplies with several countries: India continues to increase purchases of Russian oil on a long-term basis, China is ramping up gas imports and participating in financing large projects (for instance, in building petrochemical complexes in Russia), and Gulf states are investing in joint extraction projects. Moreover, Russia and OPEC+ maintain close coordination: regular consultations with Saudi Arabia and other participants allow for joint management of the oil market. These partnerships are helping Russia's fuel and energy complex redirect energy resource flows, seek new sales markets, and compensate for lost revenues from the European market.
- Sanction Risks: Despite the measures being taken, external risks have not disappeared. As previously noted, Western countries are considering tightening sanctions further against Russian energy exports. Thus far, the U.S. and the EU are proceeding cautiously, fearing that sharp actions might undermine the global energy resources market – experts estimate that Washington is unlikely to impose direct sanctions on Russian LNG at least until the end of the decade to avoid gas shortages among allies. Nonetheless, rhetoric from certain politicians remains tough, creating uncertainty. Russian companies are forced to consider scenarios involving potential secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas in third countries. Such developments will require even deeper realignment of export logistics and may impact new long-term contracts. In this context, Russian leadership is focused on rapidly establishing its own infrastructure (tanker fleet, insurance, service industries) to ensure uninterrupted exports even in the event of further complications in the external environment.
Coal Sector
The Russian coal industry is facing a challenging year in 2025. After the price boom of 2021–2022, the global coal market entered a phase of decline, and this year, prices have remained relatively low, sharply reducing export profitability for Russian companies. Intense competition in the Asian direction and sanction restrictions in Europe have caused significant financial difficulties for a considerable portion of Russia's coal mining enterprises. Many mines are reducing output, and several companies are on the brink of ceasing production. According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2024, cumulative losses of coal companies in Russia exceeded 110 billion rubles, and the negative trend continues into the current year.
Nevertheless, the industry is attempting to adapt to new conditions by redirecting supplies and cutting costs. Russian coal exports are gradually shifting toward Asia, where there is still some demand for competitively priced raw materials from Russia. Although the European market is effectively closed to Russia, domestic coal miners are actively engaging with buyers in China, India, Turkey, and other countries. The global market situation has slightly improved for suppliers toward the end of the year: the approach of winter and reduced production in certain regions (e.g., in China due to safety and environmental measures) have led to a slight price increase for energy coal. However, the current price level still does not provide sufficient profitability for the majority of Russian projects, especially considering rising logistics costs.
- Production Cuts: In Russia's largest coal-producing region, Kuzbass, production continues to decline. In the first nine months of 2025, coal production in Kemerovo region is estimated to have decreased by about 5–6% compared to the same period last year. Many companies have been forced to conserve unprofitable capacities, particularly in remote areas and mines with high costs. Export shipments are also fluctuating: by the end of October 2025, Russian coal exports abroad decreased by 1% compared to the previous month, down to 17.3 million tons, although in total, since the beginning of the year, exports are still slightly above last year's level (+3.6% for 10 months, thanks to high shipments earlier in the year). The reduction in demand for energy coal in traditional markets is forcing Russian producers to maintain lower production levels while awaiting more favorable conditions.
- Coking Coal: The segment for metallurgical (coking) coal is also facing difficulties. The global steel industry is showing weak dynamics, particularly in China, which limits the demand for coking and its production raw materials. The export of Russian coking coal via maritime routes has decreased, and by autumn, shipments through southern ports have fallen to multi-year lows. According to analysts, at current prices, over 20% of Russian coking coal producers are operating at a loss, and even the largest industry players are hovering around the breakeven point. This forces companies to revise investment programs, postpone the launch of new panels, and focus on the most efficient assets.
- Asian Markets and New Opportunities: Despite difficulties, Russian coal is finding buyers in Asia, where competitive pricing is attracting some consumers. In particular, in 2025, coal shipments to India noticeably increased: in October, Russian coal exports to India grew by 43% compared to September and doubled the level of October 2024. Indian energy and metallurgy industries took advantage of falling prices to acquire additional volumes rejected by other players. Additionally, some unconventional buyers showed interest – for instance, Taiwan began trial purchases of Russian energy coal this year through Far Eastern ports, attracted by supply stability and discounts. China remains the largest Asian market: after a slight reduction in imports in autumn due to high domestic stocks, with the onset of colder weather, demand in China’s northern provinces is rising again, leading market participants to expect increased Russian coal purchases by China in November and December. Meanwhile, South Korea reduced imports from Russia, returning to traditional suppliers (Australia), highlighting the competitive struggle for market share. Overall, the industry's prospects are tied to two factors: on one hand, the restoration of price balance through the reduction of unprofitable capacities (closure or temporary conservation of loss-making mines), and on the other hand, the growth of demand in Asia, which may gradually push prices upward. The Russian government has, for its part, commissioned the development of support measures for coal producers – from subsidizing transportation tariffs to preferential loans – to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the industry downturn.
Power Generation
Russia's power generation sector faced atypical loads in 2025 but demonstrated resilience. Anomalously hot summer weather led to historic peaks in electricity consumption in several regions: widespread use of air conditioning and cooling equipment pushed load levels to record heights. On July 14, the Unified Energy System of the South recorded an absolute maximum for summer electricity consumption – 21,219 MW, surpassing the previous record set the year prior. Similar records were noted in other systems – nearly all territorial energy systems exceeded their summer demand peaks. Moreover, during the 2024/25 winter period, the country also experienced record loads, surpassing summer figures, indicating an overall increase in energy consumption as the economy recovers and extreme weather events occur.
Despite the increased loads, the energy system managed to cope with the challenges successfully. Generating companies and dispatch services activated the necessary power reserves: hydropower plants increased output during peak consumption hours, gas and coal thermal power plants were promptly brought up to maximum output to meet demand, and the electricity transmission networks operated without serious disruptions. Even on the hottest days of summer, systemic outages were avoided – the safety margin proved sufficient, confirming the reliability of the Russian Unified Energy System. In regions with especially high loads (such as in the North Caucasus and Southern Russia), reserve mobile gas turbine units were launched, and energy flows were attracted from neighboring areas. All this ensured an uninterrupted energy supply for consumers.
- Records in Demand: The summer months of 2025 were marked by numerous new peak electricity consumption records. Heat waves in July raised daily electricity consumption to unprecedented levels across many subjects. In addition to the southern regions, there was significant load growth reported in Siberia and central areas – rising use of air conditioning, cooling systems in enterprises, and increased industrial activity led to peak hours exceeding last year's figures by 5–7%. The system operator of the Unified Energy System reported dozens of new historical peaks reached in various regions throughout June-August. Nationwide electricity consumption in Russia rose by approximately 2% year-on-year over the first 10 months of 2025, reflecting economic recovery and increased electricity intensity in certain industries.
- Network Reliability: The Russian energy system demonstrates a high level of reliability even under extreme loads. During the summer, energy firms successfully managed peaks by redistributing power flows and activating reserves. Preparations for the autumn-winter period of 2025/26 have been thorough: repairs have been conducted on key power plant units, an additional fuel (coal, gas) reserve has been formed at thermal power plants, and emergency interconnections between energy systems have been rehearsed. The Ministry of Energy predicts that even in the event of anomalous frosts this winter, generation and network capacities will suffice to meet demand without imposing restriction schedules. Special attention is being paid to southern regions, where another rise in winter consumption is anticipated; modernization of networks and the installation of new substations in Krasnodar Krai, Dagestan, and Crimea are expected to prevent local outages. Overall, industry experts note that lessons from previous years have been incorporated: dispatcher discipline has been strengthened, and maneuverability has been expanded, allowing for an optimistic outlook for the upcoming winter peaks.
Renewable Energy
The renewable energy sector (RES) worldwide is continuing to grow rapidly, reflecting the acceleration of the global energy transition. The year 2025 saw yet another record for the introduction of new capacities: in many countries, gigantic solar and wind power plants are being deployed, and investment in clean energy has reached historic highs. According to the International Energy Agency, global capital investments in renewable energy in 2025 for the first time exceeded investments in oil extraction: about $580 billion compared to $540 billion, respectively. This indicates a shift in priorities – an increasing number of countries and companies are betting on solar, wind, and other low-carbon technologies. China continues to lead in this sphere: the total installed capacity of RES in China has now surpassed the capacities of fossil fuel power plants, highlighting the scale of the changes. The European Union is also increasing the share of "green" generation – by the end of the year, over 40% of electricity in the EU was generated from renewable sources (hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass). These achievements are reducing demand for hydrocarbons in the energy sector and gradually lowering the carbon intensity of the global economy.
In Russia, renewable energy is developing at a more modest pace but steadily. The initial effect of high oil and gas prices last year provided additional momentum to RES projects: both the government and businesses recognized the importance of diversification. By early 2025, the total capacity of renewable generators (excluding large hydropower plants) reached ~6.6 GW compared to 6.5 GW a year earlier. Throughout the current year, new solar and wind parks have been commissioned in various regions – from the Astrakhan region and Stavropol Krai (wind farms) to the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), where small solar power plants for remote settlements came online. As a result, by the end of 2025, it is expected that the total installed capacity of RES in Russia will exceed 7.5 GW, representing an approximate 15% increase over the year. Although these figures are not comparable to global leaders, the trend for Russia remains upward.
- Growth of RES in Russia: The Russian renewable energy sector is increasing its volumes annually. Wind power plants and solar photovoltaic stations built under support programs are gradually coming online, increasing the "green" segment. According to official figures, electricity generation from RES in Russia grew by approximately 20% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2025. The largest increase stemmed from new wind farms in the southern part of the country and a significant solar plant in the Orenburg region. Consequently, the share of RES (excluding hydropower) in Russia's overall energy balance is nearing 1.5–2%. Although this is still a modest figure, it is steadily increasing.
- Prospects and Support: The development of renewable energy is viewed by authorities as a priority direction for diversifying the fuel and energy complex and reducing the carbon footprint of the economy. A state program to stimulate RES (a power supply contract scheme for RES) has been extended to 2035, guaranteeing investors a return on their investments contingent on the localization of equipment. It is anticipated that renewable energy installed capacity could exceed 15 GW by 2030 if all declared projects are implemented. In addition to large-scale generation, there is also a focus on distributed energy: more enterprises and households are installing their own solar panels and small wind generators, especially in regions with support for microgeneration. International cooperation is also playing a role – Russian companies are studying the experiences of leading countries on hydrogen energy and energy storage development to integrate these technologies in the future. Ultimately, the progressive increase of RES strengthens energy security, opens new industrial sectors (for manufacturing RES equipment), and improves the environmental situation.
